Celtics' biggest obstacle to NBA championship repeat

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Following a lively offseason, the NBA might actually be deeper than ever. Parity is running rampant in a league that is historically dominated by one or two teams. Winning back-to-back titles is a punishing task, especially for those who occupy an Eastern Conference stacked with ready-made contenders and emerging squads. The Boston Celtics have a sufficient amount of star power, balance, depth and leadership to circumnavigate those pitfalls, though.

Motivation should not be a problem, either, since both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were slapped with their own unique brand of Olympics disrespect this past summer. The C’s will have a massive chip on their shoulder, possibly bigger than any a reigning champ has ever carried. Talent and tenacity are no match for Lady Luck’s fickle nature, however.

Aside from Kristaps Porzingis, Boston’s core was fairly healthy last season. It boasted amazing chemistry and enough big-game experience to finally earn their NBA-leading 18th championship banner, which will be unveiled in their 2024-25 season opener on Tuesday versus the New York Knicks. Surviving Porzingis’ ongoing health issues is definitely feasible, particularly because the roster is essentially the same, but complications are more likely to arise in the upcoming campaign.

Injuries are generally the biggest obstacle any franchise could hypothetically face, but there is no need for speculating in this case. Although the Celtics should technically be more equipped to withstand key absences this year, starting the first chunk of the season without their Latvian center (rare ankle injury) could lead to a potentially concerning domino effect. If misfortune lingers long enough, a successful blueprint can get torn to shreds.

Is the Celtics’ frontcourt deep enough?

President of basketball operations Brad Stevens marvelously retained Sam Hauser, Luke Kornet and Xavier Tillman in the offseason, ensuring that Al Horford would not have to carry an overly heavy workload while Porzingis recovers from surgery. Those reserves enabled Boston to maintain a competitive edge, as the C’s posted a 21-4 regular season record and 10-2 playoffs record sans the injury-prone big man in 2023-24. There is one reason to suspect at least a small decline, though.

Horford is 38 years old. Eventually, even this ageless wonder will start to truly feel the breath of Father Time. If head coach Joe Mazzulla chooses to limit his minutes and distribute larger roles to Kornet, Tillman or Neemias Queta, the Celtics’ sturdy foundation might incur some cracks.

And a few blemishes could actually be the difference in a conference that features the ostensibly upgraded Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers, along with a Milwaukee Bucks team that is still led by Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. On paper, the gap at the top should be smaller, thereby magnifying the impact injuries can have on the standings.

Home-court advantage did not make much of a difference in the 2024 NBA playoffs (Boston was actually better on the road), but a potential Game 7 in a championship-starved Madison Square Garden is a taxing path for even the defending champions. Tatum and Brown have seen it all and can appropriately adjust to any unforeseen adversity. That is what battle scars will do to star players. Instinct can only do so much, though, if the basketball gods are interjecting.

The Braves are a cautionary tale for all powerhouses

Sometimes, the clock runs out before a team can click everything into place. The Celtics would not be the first sports franchise to prepare for a worst-case scenario and still get fatally bit by the injury bug. You do not have to travel far back in time to recall a loaded club that found itself inundated by mishaps.

Just like Stevens, general manager Alex Anthopoulos extended the integral members of the Atlanta Braves and made shrewd moves to increase the team’s title chances. And none of it mattered. Most of the top guys either underachieved or landed on the injured list for significant stretches, or both. The 2024 Braves still squeaked into the postseason, which speaks to the culture the organization has built, but they lacked the manpower to mount much resistance.

The 2021 World Series champions were unceremoniously swept, involuntarily proving the point that meticulous planning and sound judgement can be invalidated by the rigors of a long season. Although Boston checks all the boxes, there might not be anything that can fully compensate for a sidelined Kristaps Porzingis in this go-around.

The No. 4 pick in the 2015 NBA Draft has not played more than 65 games in a single regular season in seven years, and that troubling streak is expected to increase to eight this year. He is entering his age-29 campaign, a portent that his 7-foot-2 frame is only going to break down more frequently. Management is probably optimistic Porzingis can push through the physical ailments again if need be, but the wear-and-tear has piled up well beyond alarming levels.

I anticipate that the Celtics can erase any early disadvantages and avoid the aforementioned domino effect. They just feel like a special group. Though, if the Larry O’Brien Trophy does find a new home in 2025, the initially diminished frontcourt will be the primary reason why.

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