Charting out Lakers' most realistic, productive path through trade season

12/12/2024 10:32 PM

The Los Angeles Lakers find themselves in an all-too-familiar spot. The roster, mostly held together by LeBron James and Anthony Davis’ greatness, is good enough to compete for a playoff spot. It also is by no means good enough to be considered among this season’s real championship contenders. They’ve existed in this no-man’s land for most of the last half decade since winning the 2019-20 title.

With trade season getting ever closer, Rob Pelinka will have to decide whether this team is worth investing further trade capital into. If he does, he’ll have his work cut out for him. The Lakers need an upgrade at backup center and more perimeter defense but will have to be conscious of the additional needs they might create to fill those holes.

Let’s go step-by-step in balancing improving this roster with a realistic package of draft assets.

Step One: Trade Gabe Vincent, Christian Wood, and three second-round picks for Jonas Valanciunas

On December 15, a chunk of players will become trade-eligible. Most notable for the Lakers among that group is Jonas Valanciunas. For the sake of newsworthiness and speculation, James can also be traded after that date. Given the Lakers’ injury issues at center and their tedious hold of the eighth seed in the West, league sources believe Pelinka will get to work right away on acquiring Valanciunas.

A good sign this is the case is the pretty clear posturing in a recent report that the Washington Wizards value Valanciunas and would like to keep him long-term, courtesy of David Aldridge of The Athletic.

According to those I’ve spoken to with knowledge of the situation, Washington and L.A. have already held preliminary talks about a Valanciunas deal, and the expectation is for those talks to ramp up once he can be traded.

The expectation is for the Lakers to offer Vincent and second-round pick compensation to the Wizards. They may also attach one of their veteran minimum contracts (Christian Wood, Cam Reddish, or Jaxson Hayes) in the deal to give themselves more room under the second apron and to open a roster spot.

If multiple second-round picks seem expensive for Valanciunas, given the role he’d play and his three-year contract, consider it the price of getting Washington to make this move now rather than wait to see if some team gets even more desperate later in the year. The Lakers can wait to see if that price drops.

Sign Markelle Fultz

If the Lakers do manage to convince the Wizards to take both Vincent and Wood for Valanciunas soon-ish, they will open $4.1 million in space under the second apron. With seven years of service under his belt, Fultz’s veteran minimum contract would come in at $3.28 million. Prorated to this point of the season, it would probably sit right around $3 million.

So, by making the above trade and, importantly, including Wood’s contract in it, the Lakers would open both a roster spot and the necessary room under the second apron hard cap they would trigger by combining salaries to sign a free agent.

Per sources, the Lakers have had internal conversations about Fultz, the former first-overall pick who hasn’t lived up to his draft position but was solid last season playing for the Orlando Magic.

Fultz would step into the role Vincent was playing and could serve as guard depth should the Lakers decide to trade D’Angelo Russell. Standing 6’4″ with legitimate athleticism, Fultz would provide physicality on the perimeter the Lakers have sorely missed defensively. Yes, the shot is still very much a concern, but in the right lineups, it can be made up for.

Depending on his market, the Lakers could wait to sign Fultz after the next step so that the prorated amount they owe him can fit into whatever space they have left after executing this next, bigger deal.

Speaking of…

Trade D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Cam Reddish, one FRP, one lottery-protected FRP to Nets for Dorian Finney Smith, Cameron Johnson

Depending on how things go after adding Valanciunas and Fultz, the Lakers could then decide if this season is worth investing more into. If Pelinka & Co. decide yes is the answer, then this is the trade that would go the furthest in addressing their issues defensively without simultaneously hurting the offense.

Cameron Johnson does have bonuses that would raise his cap hit by an additional $3.375 million, according to Keith Smith of Spotrac. This assortment of contracts, combined with the money saved in the first trade, would allow the Lakers to acquire Johnson and that additional bonus money.

This is an important detail with how strapped for cash and flexibility teams are going to be heading into trade season. Brooklyn will have no shortage of suitors for Johnson’s services, but anything that weeds out competition (as Johnson’s bonus does) helps the Lakers and might allow them to push for lottery protection on that second first.

As far as the likelihood of the Lakers pulling this deal off specifically goes, it’s the one I have the least faith in actually happening. Pelinka does not like to empty the clip for non-stars. Brooklyn may just get better offers for their guys. But if my task was solely to make the team better now, future be damned, this is the move I’d push for.

All-In-All…

Through all this work, the Lakers will have turned Vincent, Wood, Russell, Hachimura, Hood-Schifino, and Reddish into Valanciunas, Fultz, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Johnson. Of the Lakers listed, only Hachimura (and, to a lesser extent, Vincent) was slated to play a key role in the rotation in the upcoming postseason.

The plan has always been to trade Russell, and Wood, Hood-Schifino, and Reddish have either played inconsistently, barely played at all, or, in Wood’s case, have yet to play this season.

Here’s a look at the potential depth chart:

PG: Austin Reaves, Fultz, Quincy Olivari (two-way), Bronny James

SG: Johnson, Dalton Knecht, Max Christie

SF: James, Maxwell Lewis

PF: Finney Smith, Jarred Vanderbilt

C: Davis, Valanciunas, Hayes, Christian Koloko (two-way), Armel Traore (two-way)

Depending on how they execute all these deals, the Lakers could also theoretically add up to two more players, but they’d be up against that second apron hard cap.

First things first, though, the current Lakers probably do a little more to convince an already reluctant front office to go all-in. Without that first critical step, this entire exercise is moot.

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