Los Angeles Clippers dream, nightmare seeding, matchup scenarios for 2025 NBA Playoffs

03/27/2025 10:57 PM

The Los Angeles Clippers have mostly made good on Norman Powell’s “addition by subtraction” declaration in the offseason in the aftermath of losing Paul George to the Philadelphia 76ers in free agency. While they are guaranteed to finish with a worse record this year than last, they have held strong while dealing with the routine absences of Kawhi Leonard, who still isn’t playing in back-to-back sets after getting a late start to the season in December.

At present, the Clippers have a 40-31 record, which has them sitting at seventh in the Western Conference standings. They are still within striking distance of an outright playoff spot, as the Golden State Warriors, the current sixth seed, is only above them by half a game in the win column. Simply put, there is still time for the Clippers to climb the standings even if there are only 11 games remaining in the regular season.

With that said, these are the dream and nightmare seeding and matchup scenarios for the Clippers as we inch ever closer to the 2025 NBA playoffs.

Dream scenario: Clippers move up to West’s top-five, face Memphis Grizzlies in the first round

There are no easy matchups in the Western Conference, that much is certain. For the Clippers, the same is true. Any team that they can possibly face come playoff time will pose its fair share of challenges. But if the Clippers were to have their pick, they would much rather face the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round of the playoffs.

For a time, the Grizzlies’ pace and physicality posed a problem for the deliberate Clippers who liked to play small ball. Steven Adams and Dillon Brooks, among others, gave them fits, and so did Ja Morant, whose pace at the point of attack made it difficult for the Clippers to keep up.

But the Grizzlies have now become a more finesse team in recent seasons. Brooks and Adams are gone, and the Grizzlies’ typical brute force, grit and grind style has become more of a free-flowing offense boasting the services of skilled players at every position. And this style plays right into the Clippers’ hands, as LA, in turn, has become the team that specializes in mucking it up and making it difficult for teams that play with such a carefree nature.

The results don’t lie; the Clippers have won six straight games against the Grizzlies dating back to last season, including two blowout wins against them in their two most recent matchups.

LA now has the defenders to put on Morant, with Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. sure to take turns on the pacey guard. Jaren Jackson Jr. will be a problem, but Ivica Zubac can contain him in the paint and Kawhi Leonard can bother him when he’s at the perimeter.

The Grizzlies also no longer have the personnel to keep up with both Leonard and James Harden; Jaylen Wells is the team’s best perimeter defender, and relying on a rookie to contain two future Hall of Famers rarely bodes well. Harden and Leonard can hunt plenty of mismatches, with Luke Kennard and Scotty Pippen Jr. being especially vulnerable, while Ivica Zubac should feast in the paint and on the glass if the Grizzlies decide to go small.

Playoff success usually depends on how well a team matches up against their opponent. And if the Clippers were to choose, they should pick the Grizzlies as their first-round opponent. The difficult part, of course, is finding themselves in a position where they’re matched up against them, as they may have to make it all the way to the top five of the conference to secure this favorable matchup.

Nightmare scenario: Clippers fall to eight and fail to secure homecourt advantage in play-in tournament/Kawhi Leonard falls to injury

The absolute worst-case scenario for the Clippers is that they fall all the way down to the 9/10 play-in tournament matchup, although that is very unlikely to happen, since they have a 5.5-game lead over the Sacramento Kings and Phoenix Suns.

So taking into account plausibility, the worst-case scenario for the Clippers is that they fall to eight and have to face either the Minnesota Timberwolves or Golden State Warriors on the road for the right to avoid the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the playoffs.

The Clippers have been a play-in team in the past, and this is a risk that they would not want to go through. They flamed out in the play-in back in 2022 despite having two chances to make the playoffs, with Paul George having to miss the do-or-die second play-in game after contracting COVID.

Given how volatile being in the play-in can be, the Clippers will want to avoid having to navigate this variable altogether. They will also want to play in as few high-stakes game as possible to preserve the health of Kawhi Leonard, who hasn’t gone through an entire playoff run unscathed since 2020.

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