Mavericks vs. Rockets prediction, odds, pick, spread – 3/14/2025
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The Dallas Mavericks will battle the Houston Rockets on Friday at the Toyota Center. It will be a Battle of Texas as we continue our NBA odds series and make a Mavericks-Rockets prediction and pick.
The Rockets lead the head-to-head series 104-96. Yet, the Mavs are 7-3 over the past 10 games against the Rockets, including 3-2 over the past five in Houston. So far, the Rockets have won two of three games against the Mavericks, including a 110-99 win on New Year’s Day.
Here are the Mavericks-Rockets NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Mavericks-Rockets Odds
Dallas Mavericks: +12 (-110)
Moneyline: +460
Houston Rockets: -12 (-110)
Moneyline: -620
Over: 224 (-110)
Under: 224 (-110)
How To Watch Mavericks vs. Rockets
Time: 8 PM ET/5 PM PT
TV: SCHN and KFAA
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Mavericks Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Mavericks are undergoing some adversity as they have been without some key players, and will be without them for the foreseeable future. This team is significantly different from the squad that came into the New Year. At the time, the Mavs had Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and a relatively healthy team. Flash forward to March and Doncic is a member of the Lakers now, while Irving is out for the rest of the season. Ironically, Anthony Davis played one game since being traded to the Mavs, and it came against the Rockets.
Davis will not play in this game. However, the Mavs would like to replicate what they did against the Rockets when he did play. To beat the Rockets, the Mavs will need to be creative. Moreover, they must hit their shots. Let’s look at what’s left of this team.
Klay Thompson is currently the only healthy starter from Day 1. Thus, he must rediscover the magic touch that has made him dangerous from beyond the arc throughout his illustrious career. The Mavs also need Max Christie to take that next step and showcase his mettle. Brandon Williams is the new point guard and must be careful with the rock.
Beating the Rockets will also require defense. When Jalen Green gets going, it is tough to stop him. Likewise, Alperen Sengun is incredibly effective and helps Green form that 1-2 punch. The Mavs must prepare for that.
The Mavericks will cover the spread if they can find room around the floor to take good shots and build an early lead. Then, they must prevent Green and Sengun from doing any real damage.
Why the Rockets Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Rockets routed the Mavericks on New Year’s Day and will look to replicate that. However, they will be without one of their key pieces as Amen Thompson is out for 2-3 weeks. But they have others who helped contribute to that great win.
After falling behind in that game, the Rockets blasted off in the second quarter, and a good third helped propel things further. Sengun had 23 points while shooting 9 for 16 from the floor. Meanwhile, Green added 22 points while shooting 9 for 21 from the field. Meanwhile, Dillon Brooks had 19 points. Cam Whitmore scored 18 points off the bench while shooting 7 for 9 from the floor.
The Rockets shot 47.2 percent from the field, including 32 percent from beyond the arc. They persevered despite losing the board battle 38-35. The Rockets prospered because they had 17 steals. Despite having one blocked shot, they did enough on defense to win. Houston also overcame 12 turnovers.
Stopping the Mavericks will still be tough. Even with no Irving and Davis on the floor, the Mavs still have some good shooters who can make the Rockets pay if they get sloppy on defense.
The Rockets will cover the spread if Green and Sengun can find space to make some good shots. Then, they must clamp down on defense and not let the Mavs surprise them.
Final Mavericks-Rockets Prediction & Pick
The Mavericks are 32-33-2 against the spread, while the Rockets are 37-28-1 against the spread. Moreover, the Mavs are 17-15-1 against the spread on the road, while the Rockets are 18-15 against the spread at home. The Mavericks are 7-6-1 against the spread when facing the Southwest Division, while the Rockets are 12-3 against the spread when facing the division.
The Mavericks are hurting right now, which has hindered their hopes of succeeding this season, which might cost them a playoff spot down the line. Conversely, the Rockets have a chance at the division title and the second or third seed in the Western Conference, and playing some of their best basketball in years. Therefore, I expect the Rockets to blast off and destroy the Mavericks at home easily.
Final Mavericks-Rockets Prediction & Pick: Houston Rockets: -12 (-110)
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