Nuggets vs. Heat prediction, odds, pick, spread – 1/17/2025

01/17/2025 12:19 PM

The Nuggets have been red-hot recently entering this matchup, while the Heat have had issues with consistency all season. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series with a Nuggets-Heat prediction and pick.

The Nuggets have been red-hot recently, entering this game against the Heat with a 24-16 record and having won five of their last six games. They have stars on the roster, such as Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, and they are finally getting more consistent as a team. This is a big game for the Nuggets to make a statement against one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference.

The Heat have been very up and down this year. Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler were the two biggest keys for the Heat, but it looks like Butler is on his way out due to a trade. Still, thanks to how good of a coach Erik Spoelstra is, they are the biggest X-factor in the East. They are 20-19 but lost two straight games entering this matchup. This is a huge game for the Heat to try and get back on track.

Here are the Nuggets-Heat NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NBA Odds: Nuggets-Heat Odds

Denver Nuggets: -1 (-106)

Moneyline: -110

Miami Heat: +1 (-114)

Moneyline: -106

Over: 226.5 (-110)

Under: 226.5 (-110)

How To Watch Nuggets vs. Heat

Time: 8:00 pm ET/5:00 pm PT

TV: Altitude Sports and Entertainment/FanDuel Sports Sun

*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why the Nuggets Could Cover the Spread/Win

The Nuggets’ offense has been great and one of the best in the NBA. They are third in scoring at 120 points per game, second in field goal percentage at 50%, and third in three-point percentage at 38.2%. Six Nuggets have scored over double digits this season. Nikola Jokic leads the team in points per game and assists with 30.6 points and 9.9 assists per game.

The offense revolves around Jokic, and after missing their last game, Jokic should be available against the Heat. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. have also been great as backup for Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets are one of the best offenses in the NBA, and this is a strength-on-strength matchup against the great defense of the Heat.

The Heat have been inconsistent and unimpressive on offense this year. They are 21st in scoring at 110.7 points per game, 20th in field goal percentage at 45.5%, and 12th in three-point percentage at 36.9%. Five different Heat players average over double digits in scoring, with Tyler Herro being the biggest standout at 24.3 points per game.

Herro also leads the team in assists, with five per game. Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo have even more pressure now that Jimmy Butler is suspended and out for the next few games. The Heat have a great matchup against the Nuggets, and how much the Nuggets have struggled on that side of the court.

Why the Heat Could Cover the Spread/Win

The Nuggets’ defense has been surprisingly inconsistent this season. They are 23rd in points allowed, at 116 per game, 15th in field goal defense, at 46.4%, and eighth in three-point defense, at 35.3%, from behind the arc. Jokic leads in rebounds at 13.2 per game, is a top-three rebounder in the entire NBA, and is dominant in the frontcourt. Down low, only one player averages at least one block, with Watson at 1.1 per game.

Their strength is on-ball defense, with four Nuggets averaging at least one steal per game. Jokic is also the leader in this category, with 1.8 per game. Jokic does everything for the Nuggets and is the biggest key on defense, just as much as on offense. The Heat don’t have the frontcourt depth to go at Jokic, and the rest of the offense is okay at best this season. The Nuggets should have a decent matchup against this offense that has not been impressive at all

The Heat’s defense has been great this year. They are seventh in scoring defense, at 109.5 points per game, 12th in field goal defense, 46%, and 12th in three-point defense, 35.5%. Bam Adebayo has been the best player down low, leading the team with 9.6 rebounds per game. Kel ‘el Ware is the block leader, with 0.9 per game.

The Heat’s biggest strength is their defense. The Nuggets’ offense has been performing well, so this matchup is important. The Heat’s defense allows them to compete in games, but it will be more difficult if Butler is unavailable.

Final Nuggets-Heat Prediction & Pick

The Nuggets should win this game. The Heat are staying above water without Jimmy Butler, but his absence will only hurt in a game like this. The Nuggets were dealing with some injuries, but they should be healthier in this matchup, too, with Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon available. The Nuggets are a better team and should win and cover this game on the road.

Final Nuggets-Heat Prediction & Pick: Denver Nuggets -1 (-106)

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