Pelicans must be prepared to feast on different shot diets in 2024-25 season

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The New Orleans Pelicans are entering a new era, one with a proper point guard in the mold of Chris Paul and Rajon Rondo. Former All-Star Dejounte Murray has been brought in to provide a steady hand to help guide Zion Williamson’s vengeance quest. The Pelicans have yet to see Williamson in the NBA Playoffs but this year’s Big Easy squad has serious potential. Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum will have to make some changes, though.

Ingram and McCollum are still on the roster but the Pelicans will be asking both to alter their shot chart scatter plot next season. McCollum had a career-year feasting on three-pointers. Ingram shied away from the strategy, including while being swept out of the NBA Playoffs by the Oklahoma City Thunder. Thankfully, neither will need to sacrifice their shots per game on average. The supporting cast not named Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones will have to fight for scraps on the offensive boards.

The Pelicans put up an average of 87.4 shots per game last season. Jonas Valanciunas (8.8), Naji Marshall (5.6), Dyson Daniels (5.1), Larry Nance Jr. (4.0), and Cody Zeller (1.4) accounted for about 25 of those attempts (24.9). A third of the offense has left town essentially. The Pelicans replacement might be even better.

Coach Willie Green and EVP David Griffin have talked openly about wanting to take 40 three-pointers per game and get toward the top 10 in shots attempted. Here’s one look at how the field goal attempt totals could add up after 82 games, starting with the center position.

Rookies and reserves fighting for scraps

The Pelicans have a completely revamped frontcourt to replace Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance Jr. Daniel Theis can replace the three-point shot volume of Valanciunas with a better percentage. Valanciunas (30.8%) and Theis (37.1%) were good for one to two three-pointers per game, on average. Both had green light nights with over five attempts but they were either rare or required due to injuries.

Theis will space the floor and allow five more shots to go to the team’s five best players. Yves Missi, Karlo Matkovic, and Trey Jemison will jostle for rebounds and rim-running opportunities left behind by Nance Jr. The coaching staff might structure in a few plays to feature these reserves but the rest is up to their effort. (Three-point attempts per game in parenthesis.)

• Daniel Theis – 2 FGA (1)
• Karlo Matkovic – 2 FGA (1)
• Yves Missi – 2 FGA (0)
• Trey Jemison – 2 FGA (0)
• Total – 8 shots, 2 three-pointers

The Pelicans do not need much from anyone playing the center position. Just do enough to keep defenders honest. Clean-up opportunities will come working alongside Williamson, Murray, Ingram, and McCollum. Theis is a nice veteran to play traditionally. Missi and Jemison have enough muscle to move opponents out of the paint. Matkovic is a curiosity who should provide a nice Nance Jr.-like change of pace.

Making room for All-World role players

Shots per game can vary due to travel issues, opponents, and injuries. Regardless of the situation, the fact remains that Murray’s table setting will aim to lead Williamson to a far easier feast at the rim. Still, the supporting cast must be able to carry the offense during the regular season.

Murphy III (10.9) and Jones (7.7) will play significant minutes and are near 40% snipers from three-point range. Jose Alvarado (6.2) is arguably the best reserve on the planet and Jordan Hawkins (6.8) will get a few more chances to win minutes. Expect a slight increase for Murphy III and Jones. Alvarado and Hawkins will get plenty of shots operating an in-rhythm offense.

• Trey Murphy III – 12 FGA (9)
• Herb Jones – 8 FGA, (5)
• Jose Alvarado – 2 FGA (2)
• Jordan Hawkins – 2 FGA (2)
• Javonte Green – 2 FGA (2)
• Total: 26 FGA including 20 three-pointers

Pelicans core four firing away

The eight reserves expected to make some noise are at 34 shots (23 3PA) in this simplified shot experiment. That leaves about 54-58 shots available for the four most expensive players on the roster if the Pelicans play faster. It’s possible assuming New Orleans can get two extra shots per quarter. The more three-pointers from McCollum, Murray, and Ingram the better.

However, Williamson (15.6) and Ingram (15.9) were right behind McCollum (16) in shots per game last season. Murray (18.8) was 16th overall in the NBA for field goal attempts per game last season. That’s simply too many shots to fit into the new scheme. Something has to give, right? Maybe not.

The Pelicans should be rolling with two near-elite ball handlers and two very lethal wings most of the time next season. Murray is the traditional lead. The Point Zion Experiment will get more looks in the live-action lab. McCollum is back to being an off-ball outlet who can create points in a pinch. Murphy III might have to step into Ingram’s role should a trade happen but New Orleans seems fine with that outcome.

Either way, Williamson has to stay involved while the others get up at least 17-20 three-pointers. That should be relatively easy, on paper.

• Zion Williamson – 18 FGA (1)
• Dejounte Murray – 13 FGA (8)
• CJ McCollum – 13 FGA, (9)
• Brandon Ingram – 13 FGA (6)
• Total: 57 shots including 24 three-pointers

This 91-field goal formula, which would be good for fifth-most last season, takes the Pelicans over their expected pace of play adjusted shot inventory allotment slightly. That’s fine because there will be rest nights to keep the rotation fresh. This is more about how opponents have been building a wall around the restricted area to stop Williamson.

How the coaching staff solves that puzzle remains to be seen and cannot be until the regular season starts providing data points. However, fans can start developing opinions on the starting point now that the roster is seemingly set. Barring a big trade, New Orleans knows what it should look like on the court. The changes will be tough but also provide room for growth.

It is up to Willie Green and James Borrego to get everyone on the same page sooner rather than later. Green is probably tired of surviving 1-12 and 5-10 records through Thanksgiving. Much is expected of the updated roster. The fanbase will only have so much patience before the front office hears about any failure to meet expectations. Figuring out the shot chart hierarchy is the first step in getting out to a hot start.

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