Pelicans vs. Heat prediction, odds, pick – 1/1/2025

01/01/2025 01:54 PM

The Pelicans are spiraling and have lost 11 straight, while the Heat have been solid but need more consistency as a team. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series with a Pelicans-Heat prediction and pick.

The Pelicans have talent and could have been a wildcard in the Western Conference, but they have fallen off a cliff this year. It’s all on Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, and CJ McCollum. They had a lot of potential this year, but injuries have derailed their season. They are 5-28 and have no hope of climbing out of the giant hole they dug themselves in. This is a bad matchup for them in Miami.

The Heat have been playing well recently after a slow start to the year. Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler are the two biggest keys for the Heat this year. Because of their head coach, Erik Spoelstra, they are always an X-factor in the East. They are 16-14 and have their team intact despite trade rumors hovering over them. They can roll through a struggling Pelicans team in this matchup at home.

Here are the Pelicans-Heat NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NBA Odds: Pelicans-Heat Odds

New Orleans Pelicans: +8.5 (-106)

Moneyline: +300

Miami Heat: -8.5 (-114)

Moneyline: -375

Over: 220 (-110)

Under: 220 (-110)

How To Watch Pelicans vs. Heat

Time: 7:30 pm ET/4:30 pm PT

TV: Bally Sports Sun

*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why the Pelicans Could Cover the Spread/Win

The Pelican’s offense has been awful this season. They are 28th in scoring at 106.7 points per game, 29th in field goal percentage at 44% from the field, and 26th in three-point shooting at 33.5% from behind the arc. Nine Pelican players are averaging over double digits in scoring, and with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram injured, CJ McCollum leads the team in scoring with 21.4 points per game. Dejounte Murray leads the way in assists at 7.5 per game. CJ McCollum is the only healthy player out of their big three because Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are both injured. McCollum and the rest of this offense have a difficult matchup against the Miami defense.

The Heat have been inconsistent on offense this year. They are 20th in scoring at 111 points per game, 21st in field goal percentage at 45.2%, and seventh in three-point percentage at 37.3%. Five different Heat players are averaging over double digits in scoring, with Tyler Herro being the biggest standout with 24 points per game. Herro also leads the team in assists at 5.2, and then Jimmy Butler is just behind with 4.9 per game. Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo are the keys to this offense. They have not been able to find much consistency this year, but this matchup is great for them, and they could have a huge game against the Pelicans at home.

Why the Heat Could Cover the Spread/Win

The Pelicans’ defense has struggled and has been awful this year. They are 25th in points per game at 117.9, 30th in field goal percentage at 48.5%, and 25th in three-point percentage defense at 37.3%. Since Zion Williamson is out due to injury, Yves Missi is the team’s best rebounder, with 8.5 per game. Two players are averaging over one block per game, with Missi also leading with 1.4 per game. Finally, seven players average at least one steal per game, with Dejounte Murray leading the team with 2.6. This defense has had so much potential but has not worked this year. They get a decent matchup against a Miami offense that has not been all that impressive but has playmakers throughout their roster.

The Heat’s defense has been great this year. They are sixth in scoring defense at 108.7 points per game, 12th in field goal defense at 45.9%, and 16th in three-point defense at 36%. Bam Adebayo has been the best player down low and leads the team with 9.9 rebounds per game. He also leads the team in blocks per game at 0.9 per game. Finally, six players are averaging at least one steal per game, with Adebayo leading the team with 1.4 per game. This defense is the biggest strength for the Heat. They have the ability to shut down the Pelicans in this game completely. New Orleans is limping into this game already, and this is a bad matchup against this defense.

Final Pelicans-Heat Prediction & Pick

The Pelicans are injured and have been spiraling into this game, losing 11 straight games. The Heat are playing better and should be able to win and cover this game. The Heat have the best unit in this game: their defense. They should shut down the Pelicans and win and cover at home in this matchup.

Final Pelicans-Heats Prediction & Pick: Miami Heat -8.5 (-114)

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