Projecting Nets' rotation for 2023-24 season
09/19/2023 12:23 AM
The Brooklyn Nets open training camp soon. Entering the first full season of the post-Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving era, the Nets have a blend of returning contributors and young additions.
With that, we project Brooklyn’s rotation for the 2023-24 season before the new campaign starts.
Starting Five: Ben Simmons, Spencer Dinwiddie, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Nic Claxton
This appears to be the most likely starting group, with Dorian Finney-Smith sliding to the bench. Ben Simmons remains Brooklyn’s most significant question mark ahead of 2023-24, but the three-time All-Star wasn’t shy during offseason interviews about his expectations to starting at point guard:
"Point guard. That's who I am," he told ESPN’s Andscape when asked what position he will play. "As much as people say, 'Fix this, fix that.' No, I'm a point guard. When I was playing at that [high] level, nobody was really saying anything to me."
The 27-year-old went as far as to confirm that head coach Jacque Vaughn has agreed to him playing the position.
"Yeah. We've spoken about that," he said. "I think he's come down (to see me workout in Miami) enough to where he knows, 'OK, he's going to be ready.'"
Simmons starting at point guard presents a questionable fit for a Brooklyn coaching staff that routinely said it wanted to attempt 40-plus triples per game last season. The Nets already have a non-shooting center in Nic Claxton, and Spencer Dinwiddie is a career 33.3 percent shooter from deep. This reality led to Simmons often playing a point-center role with Claxton off the floor last year, where he served as a primary ball-handler in transition but a screener and short-roll playmaker in the halfcourt.
Simmons has high expectations for a healthy version of himself entering this year. However, that doesn’t detract from the litany of questions surrounding this starting unit: With Claxton on the floor, what is Simmons’ off-ball role when Dinwiddie, Bridges or Johnson are handling? Can Vaughn get creative enough to keep the offense flowing in those moments? Can Dinwiddie improve his shooting enough to open the floor when Simmons does have the ball?
It took just two games for Vaughn to move away from a Simmons-Claxton pairing after stepping in as head coach last year. It won’t be long before we know his feelings about it in 2023-24.
Sixth man: Dorian Finney-Smith/Royce O’Neale
Dorian Finney-Smith or Royce O’Neale could have an outside shot to take Dinwiddie’s spot in the starting five. Both add far more defensive versatility and would allow Bridges and Johnson more on-ball opportunities. However, it’s difficult to see Brooklyn moving away from Dinwiddie after Simmons’ tentativeness as a self-creator last season. Regardless, Finney-Smith and O’Neale will see heavy minutes on the wing while playing a similar role.
O’Neale turned in the best season of his career in 2022-23, averaging 8.8 points and 3.7 assists per game while shooting 38.9 percent from three, all career highs. The 30-year-old was also one of Brooklyn’s top clutch performers, shooting 10-of-20 from the field and 8-of-16 from three in crunch time (final five minutes of games within five points) on the season.
In 26 games with the Nets, Finney-Smith averaged 7.2 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.6 assists. After shooting 35.5 percent from three with Dallas before his midseason trade, he struggled to find his rhythm in Brooklyn, converting at a 30.6 percent clip. Some of those struggles may be attributed to a nagging injury to the pinky finger of his shooting hand, which he underwent surgery on in the offseason.
Both players can guard multiple positions in Brooklyn’s switch-heavy scheme, which could become an even bigger strength this year with several defensive-minded offseason additions.
Backup Guard: Cam Thomas/Lonnie Walker/Dennis Smith Jr.
Which of these players emerges as a lead guard with the second unit will be one of the top subplots of the season. Despite a glaring need for scoring following the trades of Durant and Irving, Cam Thomas could not crack the Nets’ rotation late last year. While the 21-year-old became the youngest player in NBA history to score 40-plus points in three straight games, it was clear Brooklyn’s coaching staff wanted to see him improve the less-polished aspects of his skillset: defense, playmaking and spot-up shooting.
I asked Jacque Vaughn what the biggest challenge of trying to harness Cam Thomas' elite scoring at the NBA level has been:
"I wish the score was 134 Brooklyn Nets, 105 Philadelphia. I think that part helps. The goal is you win as a team. So 46 points is great but we end up…
— Erik Slater (@erikslater) April 9, 2023
Thomas will need to show dramatic improvement in each of those areas to earn the trust of the coaching staff, but as a former first-round pick with high-level offensive potential, he should get every opportunity to earn a rotation spot for a team that doesn’t project as a contender.
Lonnie Walker averaged 11.7 points on 44.8 percent shooting in 23.2 minutes per game over 56 appearances (32 starts) for the Los Angeles Lakers last year. He’s a decent floor-spacer at 36.5 percent from three last season, with the size (6-foot-4, 6-foot-10 wingspan) to bounce between SG and SF, so long as his defensive effort remains consistent. He should be able to find minutes throughout the year with Brooklyn searching for scoring off the bench.
Dennis Smith Jr., meanwhile, revitalized his career as an elite on-ball defender with the Charlotte Hornets last season, something the Nets lacked. The former lottery pick ranked in the 99th percentile in defensive estimated plus-minus, per . With eight players who ranked in the 80th percentile or better last season, Brooklyn has the pieces to field an elite defense.
The top Point of Attack Defenders in our defensive impact metric D-LEBRON this season:
+2.31: Alex Caruso
+1.60: Jevon Carter
+1.35: De'Anthony Melton
+1.32: Dennis Smith Jr.
+1.32: Derrick White
+1.12: Jaden McDaniels
+1.10: Josh Hart
+1.09: Dillon Brooks— BBall Index (@TheBBallIndex) January 15, 2023
While he adds a high-level point-of-attack defender to the backcourt, Smith Jr.’s offensive skillset leaves something to be desired. The 25-year-old can provide some much-needed rim pressure for the Nets, who attempted the second-fewest shots at the rim in the league last season. However, he shot just 21.6 percent from three on 2.1 attempts per game for Charlotte, which could present problems with Simmons, Claxton and Dinwiddie in the rotation.
Smith Jr. said at Summer League that Brooklyn told him he was “a priority” in free agency. The extent of his role with Thomas and Walker also battling for backup guard minutes will indicate the coaching staff’s philosophy.
Backup Center: Day’Ron Sharpe/Darius Bazley/Trendon Watford
With Claxton averaging 30 minutes per game last season and Brooklyn likely to play stretches with Simmons as a point-center, minutes will be few and far between for this group.
Day’Ron Sharpe could not crack Brooklyn’s rotation last year despite a glaring need for a backup five. The 21-year-old offers little to no self-creation offensively and struggles to catch feeds from guards in traffic. He would also add another non-shooter to the rotation alongside Simmons and Claxton. Sharpe’s pick-and-roll defense presented issues in the Nets’ switch-heavy scheme. Brooklyn attempted to switch to a drop coverage for stretches with Sharpe in the middle but found little success.
Despite his shortcomings, Sharpe’s rebounding could go a long way for a Nets team that ranked 28th on the defensive glass last season. The 2021 first-round pick averaged 13.0 rebounds per 36 minutes in 2022-23. He also led the NBA in offensive rebound percentage among players to play at least 500 minutes. Sharpe will need to improve defending in space and finishing if he hopes to carve out a consistent role.
Darius Bazley and Trendon Watford possess similar skill sets. Both have good size (6-foot-8) and ball-handling ability, allowing them to play anywhere from small forward to center. While neither are high-level shooters, they both present a threat, which likely positions them as small-ball fives in the NBA long-term. Bazley is the better defender of the two, while Watford offers solid passing and driving ability with a soft touch on floaters out of the short-roll.
Both players present floor-spacing options with far greater defensive versatility than Sharpe. That could be the deciding factor in this position battle with Brooklyn’s coaching staff attempting to craft lineups with Simmons at point guard.
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