Raps:Bulls

Yesterday at 12:18 AM

As losing seasons go, the Toronto Raptors can't ask for much better.

The emergence of some promising young players?

Check.

The improvement of some core players?

Yup.

Some still-to-be-opened presents under the transaction tree that could change the trajectory of the team sooner than later? Well, hello Brandon Ingram.

And yes, that sweet, sweet lottery pick that remains undetermined, so why not dream on that 7.5 per cent chance at the first overall pick that comes with having the league's seventh worst record.

All of that and a good chance of playing .500 basketball for the second half of an 82-game season?

It's hard for a rebuild to be less painless than that.

But enough is enough. As the Raptors got set to tip off against the Chicago Bulls there Tuesday night, they had seven games left in the regular season.

There should be only one mission: Lose enough of them to make sure to finish with no worse than the seventh-best lottery odds.

They got off to a good start by getting handled convincingly by the surging Bulls, 137-118 Tuesday night, a result that officially eliminated the Raptors from the post-season contention. The Bulls improved to 34-42 and clinched a spot in the play-in tournament. Chicago has won 10 of its past 14 games.

The loss also snapped the Raptors’ four-game winning streak and dropped their overall record to 28-48, leaving them 3.5 games clear of the San Antonio Spurs, who are eighth in the reverse standings, and 4.5 games ahead of the Portland Trail Blazers in ninth.

That should be enough to ensure the Raptors staying in seventh, but given that the Raptors host Portland on Thursday, finish their season in San Antonio on April 13 and have only one game left against a team with a winning record, it's better to be safe than sorry.

More efforts like Tuesday's should help. The Bulls were playing on the second night of a back-to-back after giving up 146 points in a loss to Oklahoma City Monday night, but they still had more pace and energy to their game than the Raptors.

Toronto trailed by seven after the first quarter after allowing Chicago to shoot 70 per cent from the floor and never made any convincing move to indicate they were interested in pushing the Bulls down the stretch. The Bulls shot 56.8 per cent against the Raptors for the game, including 41.2 per cent from three and went to the line 27 times. The Raptors did shoot 20-45 from three but were 24-of-52 from two-point range and only got to the line 11 times.

Still, the Raptors have shown themselves capable of winning games, especially against weaker opponents — even with the loss in Chicago, Toronto is 20-17 since their 8-31 start.

And there is a school of thought that — given the playoffs were never in the picture this season — the Raptors have fumbled already by ‘only’ accumulating the seventh-best lottery odds.

For all the misery that’s been avoided by playing winning basketball over nearly half the schedule, it can’t be overlooked that they have slipped from being tied for the second-best lottery odds with their 8-31 start.

How did that happen, especially in a season where the stated goal was to rebuild with an eye on positioning for the draft?

As always, it's been a combination of things.

• First among all has been the Raptors’ schedule. Since Jan. 11 the Raptors are 17-6 against teams that are below .500 and 3-10 against teams that are .500 and above.
The Raptors were never as bad as their 8-31 record, which was made worse by injuries, illnesses and a schedule that was front-end loaded with teams that will end up in the post-season.

• The league's most committed tankers — Washington, Utah and Charlotte — were too bad to catch. Since Jan. 11, the Jazz, who were two games ahead of Toronto in the standings, have gone 7-32, as an example.

• Injuries have ruined some teams’ seasons. Philadelphia and New Orleans were both supposed to be playoff teams. Once injuries made the post-season unlikely, each of them has leaned into gaining lottery position. The Sixers — who owe their pick to Oklahoma City if it falls out of the top six after the draft lottery — have gone 8-31 since Jan. 11. The Spurs were 18-19 on Jan. 11 with hopes that Victor Wembanyama could lead them to the playoffs in his second season. But they lost the French prodigy for the rest of the season when a blood clot was discovered in his shoulder at the all-star break. They are 8-14 since.

Have the Raptors erred by not keeping up in the league's race to the bottom?

Not in my judgment. To be in the bottom four and have a 12.5 per cent chance at the first pick, Toronto would have had to be 10-26 over their past 36 games, and barring season-ending injuries to Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl — the Raptors finished last season 2-19 when that duo was injured at the end of last season — I don't know if that was possible given the weakness of their schedule. As well, it would have been a real challenge to develop positive habits in young players when any serious focus on winning has been shelved for the last half of the season.

But did the Raptors miss out on an opportunity to finish with the fifth or sixth-best lottery odds?

That's a fair comment. A 14-23 mark — compared to the 20-17 record they have put together — would have them ahead of Philadelphia in the reverse standings and the fifth-best odds.

But the challenge there is that the Raptors aren't exactly built to tank. Barnes needs to play 65 games to even have a chance to qualify for an all-NBA team, which — in the unlikely scenario he did earn all-NBA recognition — would automatically turn the contract extension he signed this past summer into a ‘supermax’ deal worth an additional $45 million. Given that Barnes had missed 13 games due to injury prior to the all-star break, Toronto didn't have much leeway to sit out their best player to help them lose games.

And while the Raptors have sat Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett and Poeltl regularly down the stretch, their crew of rookies and young players have played hard, been coached well and are determined to make a name for themselves.

When playing against a steady diet of lottery-bound opponents, that energy and enthusiasm can be enough to make the difference. If you are moving up the reverse standings because 10-day signees or two-way players such as Jared Rhoden or AJ Lawson are helping you win games on the road — as happened memorably against Orlando in early March — there's not much else you can do.

And while having better odds of a better draft position are just that, the difference between fifth and seventh isn't so vast that you can't make the case that the benefits the Raptors have got from stacking up wins and heading into the off-season on a bit of a high don’t provide some kind of compensation.

Having the fifth-best odds means a 10.5 per cent chance at picking first compared with 7.5 per cent chance, and a 42.1 per cent chance at being in the top four compared with a 31.9 per cent chance.

Having the seventh-best odds also means the Raptors would have a 68 per cent chance of picking seventh through 11, while the fifth-best odds means there's only a 36 per cent chance of picking 7 through 9.

It’s not nothing, but neither are the benefits the Raptors have gained over the past 10 weeks nothing. They’re just harder to quantify.

But slipping lower than seventh?

At this stage, it would be inexcusable. The Raptors have proven their point: Under almost any configuration, they are better than shadow NBA lineups or teams that have mostly checked out for the season. They are willing to play hard and they are bought it. Their youngsters have gained experience, and their regulars have got much-needed reps playing together after a season and a half disrupted by trades and injuries.

But there is no need to run the table and inadvertently move back to eighth or ninth in the draft odds. That would prove nothing other than that the Raptors are overly invested in being bad at math.

Tuesday night's no-show in Chicago was a good start.

Grange for three:

Ja'Kobe Walter trending: The rookie out of Baylor missed all of training camp and the first five games of the regular season with a shoulder injury, returned for four games and injured his shoulder again and was out for another nine games. In that context, his close to the season is really encouraging. Walter finished with 17 points, four rebounds and four assists and was 5-of-5 from three against the Bulls. He's now shooting 50 per cent from three in the four games he's played since missing eight games with a groin strain. His strong finish to the regular season — especially since missing so much time — bodes well for the 20-year-old and is just one more reason the Raptors are so high on him for the future.

Rest Barnes: As detailed above, playing 65 games is theoretically important for Barnes this season if he has any chance to qualify for any post-season awards. That assumes he's playing well enough to gain any consideration. Barnes was out of sorts most of the night and finished with nine points on 4-of-14 shooting and just four rebounds, this after finishing with just nine points on 4-of-12 shooting and just five rebounds Monday against Philadelphia. With the Raptors officially eliminated from playoff contention and Barnes playing poorly after playing in 17 of the Raptors’ last 18 games, it should be his turn for a rest.

What a contract: Having players out-perform their contract is essential for teams that want to excel under a salary cap. Bulls point guard Coby White has one of the most team-friendly deals in the NBA. Since signing it before the 2023-24 season, he's averaged 19.6 points, 4.1 rebounds and 4.8 assists while shooting 37.2 per cent from three. White was the best player on the floor Tuesday night as he led all scorers with 28 points, six assists and two steals on 10-of-16 shooting. He just turned 25 and will be a free agent in the summer of 2026.