Raptors vs. Rockets prediction, odds, pick, spread – 2/9/2025
02/08/2025 09:40 PM
The NBA season continues, and we have a tilt between the Toronto Raptors and the Houston Rockets on Sunday. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series with a Raptors-Rockets prediction and pick.
The Houston Rockets host the Toronto Raptors on February 9 in a matchup of teams seeking to reverse recent slumps. Houston, fourth in the West, has hit a recent skid despite strong performances from Jalen Green (28 PPG in outing against Minnesota) and Alperen Şengün (16 PPG, 10 RPG average). Toronto arrives on a three-game skid, potentially missing RJ Barrett (concussion) and Jakob Poeltl (hip), though newly acquired Brandon Ingram (22.2 PPG career average) could debut. While the Rockets won their first meeting 114-110 in December, Toronto holds a 3-2 advantage in their last five matchups. Houston’s defensive regression (-5 net rating during losing streak) clashes with Toronto’s improved road form (3-2 last five away games). Key factors include Fred VanVleet’s continued absence for Houston and Toronto’s ability to exploit the Rockets’ recent perimeter defensive lapses (allowed 38.2% 3PT in losses).
Here are the Raptors-Rockets NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Raptors-Rockets Odds
Toronto Raptors: +10 (-114)
Moneyline: +126
Houston Rockets: -10 (-106)
Moneyline: -148
Over: 225.5 (-114)
Under: 225.5 (-106)
How To Watch Raptors vs. Rockets
Time: 2:00 PM ET/11:00 AM PT
TV: AT&T SportsNet Southwest, NBA League Pass
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Raptors Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Toronto Raptors are poised to capitalize on the Houston Rockets' recent struggles in Friday's matchup, leveraging their defensive resurgence and Houston's depleted lineup. Over their last 10 games, Toronto has transformed into the NBA's top-ranked defense (105.7 defensive rating), anchored by improved rim protection (44.4 paint points allowed, third-best) and disciplined transition defense (12.6 fast-break points surrendered, second-best). This stifling unit will challenge a Rockets squad that ranks 12th offensively and has shown vulnerability during its losing streak, particularly in clutch situations where they've surrendered 38.2% three-point shooting. Houston's absences of Fred VanVleet (floor general) and Jabari Smith Jr. (weakside defender) exacerbate these issues, leaving gaps in perimeter discipline and defensive communication.
Toronto's balanced offense — which ranks third in assists (30.6 per game) and second in assist percentage (72.0%) during this 10-game surge — perfectly counters Houston's defensive regression (-5 net rating during losing streak). Scottie Barnes (19.9 PPG) and newly acquired Brandon Ingram (22.2 career PPG) create mismatches against a Rockets team allowing 116.3 PPG during their skid. With RJ Barrett (questionable) and Jakob Poeltl (out), Toronto's improved road form (3-2 last five away) further tilts the scales toward Canada's resurgent squad.
Why the Rockets Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Houston Rockets are primed to snap their losing skid against a depleted Toronto Raptors squad, leveraging their offensive firepower and Toronto's defensive vulnerabilities. Despite recent struggles, Houston's core of Jalen Green (28 PPG in last outing) and Alperen Şengün (19.2 PPG, 10.6 RPG season averages) provides a dynamic inside-out threat. The Rockets rank 12th in offensive efficiency, and their ability to attack the paint (50.0 PPG in paint vs. Minnesota) aligns perfectly against a Raptors defense allowing 116.3 PPG during their three-game losing streak. Toronto's perimeter defense has been particularly porous, surrendering 38.2% three-point shooting in recent losses10, a weakness Houston's shooters like Cam Whitmore and Dillon Brooks can exploit.
The Raptors' injury woes tilt the matchup further in Houston's favor. Toronto will likely be without RJ Barrett (concussion protocol) and Jakob Poeltl (hip), stripping them of two starters. Even if newly acquired Brandon Ingram debuts, his ankle status remains uncertain, and his integration into Toronto's system will take time. Meanwhile, Houston's revamped frontcourt, featuring Steven Adams, enhances their rebounding edge (No. 1 in total rebounds), critical against a Raptors team that allowed 138 points to Memphis. With Houston's defense tightening in clutch moments (No. 1 in fourth-quarter defensive rating pre-slump) and Toronto's road struggles (0-4 in February away games), the Rockets' home-court advantage and urgency to halt their skid make them decisive favorites.
Final Raptors-Rockets Prediction & Pick
The Houston Rockets enter Sunday's matchup as clear favorites to halt their losing skid, fueled by home-court advantage and Toronto's injury-depleted roster. Alperen Şengün (19.2 PPG, 10.6 RPG) anchors Houston's interior dominance against a Raptors frontcourt missing Jakob Poeltl (hip) and relying on undersized backups. Toronto's perimeter defense, allowing 38.2% three-point shooting in recent losses, faces a Rockets backcourt led by Jalen Green (21.5 PPG), who dropped 28 points in their last meeting. While Brandon Ingram (22.2 PPG career average) could debut for Toronto, his ankle recovery and integration timeline limit immediate impact.
Houston's rebounding edge (No. 1 in total boards) and clutch defensive adjustments (No. 1 in fourth-quarter rating pre-slump) will counter Toronto's transition-heavy offense. The Rockets' urgency to stabilize their playoff position, paired with Toronto's 0-4 February road record, tilts this toward a double-digit Houston victory to cover the spread on their home court Sunday afternoon.
Final Raptors-Rockets Prediction & Pick: Houston Rockets -10 (-106), Over 225.5 (-114)
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