Thunder vs. Mavericks prediction, odds, pick, spread – 1/17/2025
Today at 11:30 PM
The Oklahoma City Thunder will battle the Dallas Mavericks on Friday. It will be a battle at American Airlines Arena as we continue our NBA odds series and make a Thunder-Mavericks prediction and pick.
The Thunder lead the head-to-head series 91-85. Recently, the Thunder defeated the Mavericks 118-104 on December 10, 2024, avenging a 121-119 loss from November 17. 2024. The Thunder are 7-3 over the past 10 games against the Mavs, including 3-2 in the past five games in Dallas.
Here are the Thunder-Mavericks NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Thunder-Mavericks Odds
Oklahoma City Thunder: -6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -260
Dallas Mavericks: +6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +215
Over: 222 (-110)
Under: 222 (-110)
How To Watch Thunder vs. Mavericks
Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30 PM PT
TV: KFAA and FanDuel Sports Oklahoma
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Thunder Could Cover the Spread/Win
Mark Daigneault has quietly been an elite coach who has led his Thunder to the best record in the Western Conference. Amazingly, this team keeps finding ways to win, even when facing obstacles. But they have executed most games to perfection.
When they beat the Mavericks last month, they did it by simply overpowering them. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went off in that game with 39 points and eight rebounds while shooting 15 for 23 from the field, including 5 for 9 from the three-point line. Likewise, Jalen Williams added 18 points while shooting 8 for 21 from the floor. Luguentz Dort and Cason Wallace each had 11 points while shooting 4 for 10. Additionally, Isaiah Hartenstein had 10 points and 13 rebounds while shooting 5 for 11 from the floor.
The Thunder won despite shooting only 45.5 percent from the field. Yet, they also shot 40 percent from the three-point line. The Thunder also shot 85.7 percent from the charity stripe. Likewise, they won the board battle 52-44, including hauling down 17 offensive rebounds. The Thunder also had 14 steals to force 18 turnovers. Also, they blocked five shots. The Thunder also had excellent defense in this game, holding the Mavs to 47.5 percent from the field, including 41.7 percent from beyond the arc.
The Thunder will cover the spread if they can continue to shoot the rock, avoid turnovers, and hit their free-throw chances while Gilgeous-Alexander remains hot from all over the court and burns them. Then, their defense must contain the Mavericks and not allow them to get hot.
Why the Mavericks Could Cover the Spread/Win
Kyrie Irving might be back for this game. He recently returned but reinjured himself. It would be a big boost for the Mavs, as they have been without Irving for two weeks and have been without Luka Doncic since Christmas Day. Somehow, the Mavericks have not had a full, healthy lineup in either of their games against the Thunder.
P.J. Washington was the leading scorer in their win against the Thunder, tacking on 27 points and 17 rebounds while shooting 7 for 13 from the floor. Irving was also instrumental in the win, tacking on 23 points while shooting 9 for 18 from the floor, including 3 for 6 from the triples. Meanwhile, Naji Marshall added 13 points off the bench while shooting 4 for 6 from the floor. Jaden Hardy also had 13 points off the bench while shooting 6 for 9 from the field. Likewise, Daniel Gafford had 11 points while shooting 4 for 9 from the field.
The Mavs shot 47.6 percent from the floor in that game, including 40.7 percent from the triples. Additionally, they held the Thunder to 49.4 percent from the field, including 33.3 percent from the triples. However, their free-throw shooting ability helped them prosper as they converted 83.3 percent (30 of 36 chances) from the charity stripe. The Mavs also dominated the boards in the victory, dominating 53-29. Furthermore, they overcame 16 turnovers. The Mavericks must control the tempo and not get into a race with the Thunder.
The Mavericks will cover the spread if they can dominate the boards and not give the Thunder any second chances. Likewise, they must contain Gilgeous-Alexander and not allow him to burn them in this game.
Final Thunder-Mavericks Prediction & Pick
The Thunder are 25-12-3 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 19-21-1 against the odds. Moreover, the Thunder are 12-6-2 against the spread on the road, while the Mavs are 10-10 against the odds at home. The Thunder are 15-9 against the spread when facing the Western Conference, while the Mavericks are 14-17-1 against the odds when facing the West. Significantly, the Thunder are 5-2 against the spread when playing on the second of a back-to-back and 5-4-1 against the odds when facing a rest disadvantage.
The Thunder are juggernauts, while the Mavericks are contending for a playoff spot. If Doncic was available, I would probably pick the Mavericks to cover. Unfortunately, he will not play, and Irving may not be 100 percent. Because of these factors, I can see the Thunder going into Dallas and doing enough to cover the spread with another great performance by Gilgeous-Alexander.
Final Thunder-Mavericks Prediction & Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder: -6.5 (-110)
The post Thunder vs. Mavericks prediction, odds, pick, spread – 1/17/2025 appeared first on ClutchPoints.
