Way-too-early look at Knicks' possible playoff matchups

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The New York Knicks' 2023-24 season was a successful one. Granted, injuries held New York back from reaching their full potential; however, they still advanced to within one win from the Eastern Conference Finals. That's quite the accomplishment for a team that had only advanced beyond the first round of the playoffs in two of the previous 23 seasons.

The Knicks got off to a rocky start to the 2024-25 campaign, with Jalen Brunson slumping, Mikal Bridges experiencing shooting woes, and broader defensive deficiencies. Thankfully, they've hit a stride of late. New York has won four of its last games, although they demonstrated their bipolar nature in their most recent loss against the Utah Jazz. They are presently 9-7, which means they're fourth in the Eastern Conference.

Knicks' major rivals look unlikely to qualify

So, while this lookahead might be a preemptive exercise, it makes sense that Knicks' fans are already anticipating the playoffs. But there are a number of caveats. Most importantly, where do the Philadelphia 76ers and Indiana Pacers end the season?

The 76ers and Pacers are probably the Knicks' biggest rivals. But both teams are underperforming, with Philadelphia currently in possession of the second–worst record in the NBA (3-12).  Indiana isn't doing much better, having lost three straight and currently owners of a 6-10 record.

Still, there is a lot of time for both teams to turn their seasons around. And Knicks fans are well aware of the danger that both present.

Knicks' biggest threats

The top two teams in the conference (Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics) are both more than formidable. Cleveland has been playing their best basketball since LeBron James left for Los Angeles, and has seemed to unlock another gear with Evan Mobley taking on a point forward role. Oh, and they’re 16-1, in case you didn’t know.

Boston is essentially the same team that won the championship last season, sans Kristaps Porzingis, who is scheduled to return from injury by December (although he hoped to return even sooner, according to a CBS Sports report).

These two teams might pose the biggest threat to the Knicks, and not just because they look like the best teams in the East. Specifically, we're talking about the two higher-scoring teams in the league, and the teams that sport the best first- and third-best offensive ratings (whereas New York is just 21st in defensive rating). Ironically, the Knicks are currently second-best in offensive rating.

But some of the defensive danger will likely be reduced by the return of Mitchell Robinson and Precious Achiuwa. Robinson is one of the best-shot blockers and rebounders in the game today, and Achiuwa is a reliable defender who plays bigger than his six-foot-eight-inch frame might suggest. So, if Robinson (and to a lesser extent, Achiuwa) can return and stay healthy, the Knicks could be in a better position to face these two teams than they currently seem.

Orlando looks scary despite missing its best player

Paolo Banchero tore his oblique muscle on October 30. Since the injury, the Orlando Magic have surprisingly gone 8-5. It was announced that Banchero would be re-evaluated in four to six weeks, which is right around Thanksgiving. However, that's just for an evaluation. Banchero has said he hopes to return before Christmas.

Can Orlando keep up their current pace without its best player? Banchero was averaging 29.0 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game. The Magic once again owns one of the league's best defenses (third in defensive rating). And while that could present some problems for New York, the fact that the Magic rank sixth-worst in offensive rating bodes well for the Knicks and their defensive problems. So, New York shouldn't be nearly as worried about the Magic as they are about the Celtics or Cavaliers.

As the third seed, the Magic aren’t a threat in the early rounds. So, if they (and the Knicks) keep up their relatively strong play, the Magic aren’t worth worrying about for some time.

Knicks' realistic first-round match-ups: Milwaukee Bucks

First-round matchups are a far bigger immediate concern, and the Milwaukee Bucks have (sort of) come alive. They have won four straight and are currently slotted fifth in the Eastern Conference, meaning they would face the Knicks in a first-round matchup as of today.

Diving into the Bucks’ recent success, only one of those wins came against a team above .500 (Houston Rockets). The Bucks are still fairly mediocre from an offensive (14th) and defensive (17th) rating standpoint. Not to oversimplify what's going on in Milwaukee, but it looks like it's simply a heavy dose of Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Antetokounmpo is averaging 32.5 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game. How can the Knicks combat that? Come the playoffs, the Knicks should be well-equipped to defend Antetokounmpo, throwing a combination of Mitchell Robinson, OG Anunoby, and Precious Achiuwa at him. Granted, Antetokounmpo is about as good as it gets in the present-day NBA. But the Knicks are as prepared to defend him as anyone.

Knicks' realistic first-round match0ups: Miami Heat

The Miami Heat are another team that the Knicks could easily end up facing in the first round. They are currently 6-7, good for sixth in the Eastern Conference. They, too, have been mediocre offensively (15th-best offensive rating) and defensively (12th-best defensive rating).

The Heat and Knicks have played once so far this season (October 30th), and the Knicks emerged victorious (116-107). Towns showcased his exceptional talent, scoring an impressive 44 points, grabbing 14 rebounds, and dishing out six assists. While Knicks fans can anticipate a more formidable defensive performance from Bam Adebayo and the entire Heat team in future matchups, Towns' dominance demonstrated exactly how dominant the Knicks can be.

Knicks' realistic first-round match0ups: Atlanta Hawks

The Atlanta Hawks are currently 7-10 and in seventh place in the East. They are less of a threat than the other teams listed above, and they wouldn't meet the Knicks in the first round as currently constructed. But the season is young, and a lot can happen between now and April.

Atlanta ranks 22nd in offensive rating and 20th in defensive rating. So, they don't seem too intimidating. However, the only example we have of a head-to-head matchup ended in a disappointing loss for the Knicks (121-116). But the loss to Atlanta was right in the middle of the period when Brunson was forcing too much action and shooting worse than he normally does.

Ultimately, New York—and frankly, a number of teams around the league—are still doing quite a bit of soul-searching. The Knicks remain far too inconsistent, which probably drives coach Tom Thibodeau insane. And they still have to work Achiuwa and Robinson back into the rotation, as well as Miles McBride (knee). So, it's hard to gauge what the Knicks might look like in April. We can only dream, but it should look pretty good. What the teams around them look like is anyone’s guess, though. And mid-season trades will probably dictate a lot.

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