Why Bucks hold final piece to Heat, Suns' Jimmy Butler trade puzzle

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It is not a matter of IF Jimmy Butler is traded, it’s a matter of WHEN Jimmy Butler is traded, right? This marriage between Butler and the Miami Heat has been heading toward an ugly divorce for quite some time. That is why the Phoenix Suns have been at the front of the line to land the six-time All-Star to pursue a title with him, Kevin Durant, and Devin Booker.

The Suns’ desire to move All-Star guard Bradley Beal for Butler is the worst-kept secret in the league, and quite frankly, we shouldn’t even call this a secret anymore. The bottom line is the Heat want Butler gone, Butler wants to join the Suns, and Phoenix would be happy to simply move Beal for Butler straight up.

Unfortunately for the Suns, this isn’t a viable scenario. So many complicated variables go into their pursuit of Butler over the next two weeks leading up to the 2025 NBA trade deadline.

In addition to Beal holding a no-trade clause and having full control over where he would end up in a Butler trade scenario, the Heat, along with almost the entire league, have not held interest in adding the 31-year-old guard. So, how could all of this Butler mess even be sorted out for Phoenix if Beal isn’t coveted around the league?

Well, for starters, any trade involving Butler and the Suns is going to involve multiple teams for financial reasons. After all, it’s never easy to move two players who are making roughly $50 million in a single season. There really isn’t a team in the Western Conference that can, or wants to, take on Beal’s contract, which is why all eyes are on the Eastern Conference, specifically the Milwaukee Bucks.

Bucks make Jimmy Butler, Suns trade possible…not Miami

The Bucks were interested in Beal when he first became available in trade talks with the Washington Wizards in 2023, and it does appear that a mutual interest still exists to some extent. Would Beal waive his no-trade clause to join Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard in Milwaukee?

It seems reasonable to believe that the answer would be “yes” here, especially since Beal wants to be on a team that can contend at the highest level possible. The Bucks recently won the NBA Cup, and as long as their two superstars are healthy, they have a chance to beat any other team in a seven-game series. However, Milwaukee’s involvement adds more drama to the Butler-Suns scenario simply because of all the stress adding Beal causes.

As things stand, the Bucks own one of the highest payrolls in the league and are operating as a second-apron team. This means Milwaukee can’t aggregate salaries in trades and can only match salaries in one-on-one deals. To help facilitate this deal between the Heat and Suns involving Butler, a player the Bucks have internally discussed pursuing themselves, this organization would first have to move out of the second apron by trading Pat Connaughton.

After doing so, the Milwaukee would then have to combine enough salaries as a first-apron team to add Beal’s $50.2 million contract, which is near impossible without giving up Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis, and a player like MarJon Beauchamp. Beal has seen his production drop significantly since joining the Suns, and his contract is viewed as one of the most negative assets around the league. Is this something the Bucks really want to tie themselves down to?

Middleton would be replaced by Beal, but the Bucks wouldn’t be able to find a viable replacement for Portis, nor would they have protection on their bench in the form of a veteran like Connaughton anymore. Although Milwaukee could still make further moves like trading Brook Lopez for value after acquiring Beal, now you’re talking about gutting this entire roster around Antetokounmpo and Lillard in the middle of the season.

This shared sentiment has many league personnel weary of the idea that the Bucks are seriously considering this scenario.

“[Jon] Horst is a smart guy who has assembled his vision of a championship roster again,” one league source told ClutchPoints. “Khris Middleton is not the same player he used to be prior to his injuries, but how much better is Bradley Beal right now? You would be making a lateral move and giving up your only positive bench player — Bobby Portis.”

If Milwaukee acquired Beal in a four-for-one scenario, this would leave them with 12 players on their active roster and little room to maneuver financially. They would then need to sign a player to a veteran’s minimum contract before the trade deadline and utilize 10-day contracts for their 14th roster spot. Again, the Bucks would essentially lose a large chunk of their roster next to Lillard and Antetokounmpo.

If it’s not Milwaukee for Beal, another idea that has been floated around involves the Chicago Bulls including former All-Star swingman Zach LaVine in a trade scenario with Butler. However, it’s still the Bucks that would control things since they would need to sign off on accepting LaVine over Beal. There are then questions about whether Beal even want to join a Bulls team that isn’t in contention for anything. It is worth noting that Billy Donovan was Beal’s college head coach at Florida, so there is that connection.

Butler could go to the Suns, Beal would go to the Bulls, LaVine to the Bucks, and the Heat would settle for some package revolving around Middleton and Portis. While this is a deal that works from a financial aspect, there are still plenty of questions about whether many of the teams involved would actually want this.

No matter how you look at it, the Bucks are the team that actually controls Butler’s fate at the moment. Unless a team and new trade comes out of left field, a Butler trade scenario revolves around Milwaukee’s willingness to flip their roster.

Who helps facilitate this deal for Phoenix, Miami?

The Suns agreed to a trade with the Utah Jazz on Tuesday night, a move that raised eyebrows around the NBA. By sacrificing their only first-round pick in 2031, Phoenix obtained three first-round picks from the Jazz in 2025, 2027, and 2029. All of these picks are yet to be determined, as Utah did add protections to give the Suns their worst first-round pick in these respective years.

Why would Phoenix, a team that has already traded away all of its draft assets, make this sort of deal and relinquish its 2031 first-round pick with no protections on it? Well, the Suns have now unlocked the ability to use draft assets over the next five years, allowing them to have the necessary trade bait to please teams and help facilitate a possible Butler trade.

League personnel are of the ideology that Phoenix wouldn’t have made this move with Utah unless they believed they could pull off a trade for Butler. Even if the Suns don’t strike a deal with the Heat, they now have assets that can be utilized in order to increase their potential. That is why this trade was a win-win for both parties.

It is assumed that these newly acquired first-round picks will be used as incentives for teams willing to take back salary in a Butler-Beal blockbuster trade before the deadline. So, who could these teams possibly be and just how many front offices will come together to make this deal possible?

In addition to the Suns, Heat, and Bucks possibly banding together, three other organizations stand out as the most likely to also be involved: the Toronto Raptors, Detroit Pistons, and Charlotte Hornets.

All three teams have expressed to teams around the league that they are willing to help facilitate trades for future assets, and each franchise has appealing aspects. Charlotte is the most familiar with how Phoenix conducts business, as they recently traded Nick Richards and a 2025 second-round pick to the Suns for Josh Okogie and three future second-round picks.

Whereas Toronto has intriguing secondary players like Bruce Brown, Chris Boucher, and Kelly Olynyk, Detroit has a plethora of cap space. This would allow the Pistons to take back salaries with no repercussions while also potentially adding future value in the form of draft picks.

That is why the Pistons have come up the most in connection with the Bucks if they were to move Connaughton to get below the second tax apron.

Not only will the Bucks need to help get Jimmy to the Suns, but several other teams outside of Miami will need to be involved financially. There are a lot of moving pieces in a potential Butler trade before the deadline, which is why the Heat need to consider what’s best for them.

Heat’s goal in Jimmy Butler trade scenarios

What do the Heat want for Jimmy Butler?

Depending on who you ask around the league, this answer is constantly changing. On one hand, it would make sense for the Heat to bring back players like Middleton, Portis, and/or Brown in a potential trade involving Butler, as all three veteran players keep Miami in a position to compete this season since they still have Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro.

However, the idea of realistically contending in the East this season come playoff time against the Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, and Cleveland Cavaliers is farfetched without Butler. When Butler leaves Miami, whether in the coming weeks or in the offseason, the Heat will be able to refocus and regroup their assets in order to find the next star player who can positively change their future.

From De’Aaron Fox to Trae Young to Anthony Edwards, Miami has been linked to several young stars through the years and is monitoring their long-term status. By losing Butler, Pat Riley and the Heat are suddenly in a position where they can once again be hunters looking ahead in the free agent and trade market.

That is why it’s certainly not a foregone conclusion that Middleton would end up with the Heat if the Bucks are included in a deal that sends Butler to Phoenix. Middleton owns a $34 million player option for next season that he probably won’t opt out of at this point given his injury history, and he won’t be a free agent until 2026.

Although he could still contribute as a secondary talent next to Herro and Adebayo for the time being, some believe Miami would look to get yet another team involved to send out Middleton for additional assets. Whatever the case may be, the Heat have signaled that they want draft compensation and not long-term salaries. If possible, getting out of the luxury tax threshold is an appealing avenue for Miami.

Exactly two weeks from the trade deadline, the Heat find themselves $13.55 million over the tax line.

The good news for the Suns is they have three first-round picks at their disposal now after striking a deal with the Jazz on Tuesday night. At least one of these picks would be going to Miami in any scenario involving Butler.

Is Middleton, Portis, and/or Brown with a draft pick enough compensation for the Heat to give into trading Butler to Phoenix? Are the Bucks willing to take on Beal’s contract or would he need to go to Chicago in exchange for LaVine? Will Beal even be willing to waive his no-trade clause over the next 14 days?

Nobody has answers to these massive questions at the moment, and each of these three questions will control how the 2025 NBA trade deadline plays out.

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