Why Mavericks' Anthony Davis injury return makes absolutely zero sense

03/24/2025 04:07 PM

This has been a season of torment for the Dallas Mavericks and their fans. Aside from the Dallas faithful having to cope with the reality that Nico Harrison and the Mavs traded Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers, these fans then suffered through seeing Anthony Davis suffer an injury in his first game with the team.

Since then, Daniel Gafford went down with a sprained right MCL and Kyrie Irving suffered a torn ACL in his left knee. The list of injuries for this organization continues long past these three. Dereck Lively II is still out with a stress fracture in his right ankle, Dante Exum broke his hand, Olivier-Maxence Prosper underwent wrist surgery, and Caleb Martin has only played five games with the team due to ongoing hip issues.

While the Mavs recently picked up a 123-117 victory at home over the Detroit Pistons, this team has lost 11 of their last 14 games and have fallen to 34-37 overall this season. Dallas is now tied with the Phoenix Suns for the final play-in tournament spot in the Western Conference.

Is there any hope existing for the Mavericks at this point with 11 games remaining on their schedule? Well, the “good news” is that Davis is nearing a return from his left adductor injury and has seen his status for Monday night’s game against the Brooklyn Nets upgraded from doubtful to questionable. There is a real sense of belief that the two-way star will be able to play his second game in a Mavs uniform.

The only reason for the quotes around “good news” is because this may not actually be good news for the Mavs given how this season has gone.

What if Davis gets hurt … again?

As if trading Doncic wasn’t bad enough, Davis suffering an injury in his first game with the Mavericks was a doomsday scenario. Whether or not this injury was from Dallas bringing the big man back too soon is something nobody seems to have an answer to.

Nonetheless, Davis has missed the past 18 games with a left adductor strain. The Mavs have gone 6-12 in this span, falling to the bottom of the West playoff picture and tied with the Suns at 34-37 this season.

Obviously, Davis possibly returning on Monday night against Brooklyn puts Dallas in a better position to win games at the end of the season and potentially outlast Phoenix or another team for one of the final play-in tournament spots in the West. Then again, what does the team have to gain from achieving this?

Irving won’t be back until sometime in 2026, and both Gafford and Lively are weeks out from being ready to return. Even with their three big men healthy, it’s hard to see Dallas stacking up against Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Sacramento in the play-in tournament. The Mavs have gone 2-6 against these three teams this season, including two losses to the Sacramento Kings since the trade deadline.

The worst scenario that could play out if Davis were to return is him stepping foot on the court only to walk or be helped off the court again with another injury. If this happened, even more protests and riots would start in Dallas from these fans who still aren’t over what happened on Feb. 2 when the Mavericks traded Doncic.

Davis is a great player with plenty of respect from fans. That energy and feeling were clearly shown in his first game before suffering a groin/adductor injury. Regardless if he comes back this season or is held out, the fans will remain behind Davis 100 percent. It is the organization as a whole that the fans have a hard time trusting right now, and a decision to play Davis won’t improve that feeling.

Whether it’s Davis pushing to get back on the court and play or the Mavs wanting to bring him back this season, it is really just a lose-lose situation. Exposing Davis to further injury in what has become a lost season at this point presents nothing but risk.

This is especially true since Dallas would be staring down a first-round exit from the playoffs at the hands of the Oklahoma City Thunder if they were to win the 8-seed via the play-in tournament.

Does the potential reward outweigh the risk?

Davis wants to play, just like any other star player in the NBA. Even if the Mavs aren’t where they thought they would be, he still feels like he owes it to this organization and the fans to be on the court when he is healthy.

The problem with this, and what Davis needs to understand, is that the odds are against him and the Mavericks.

Aside from all the injuries this organization has dealt with throughout this season, Davis has suffered two soft tissue injuries to his groin/adductor during the second half of the season. Even if he feels like he is ready to return and the medical staff gives him the green light, the possibility of him coming back and suffering the same injury is certainly heightened.

While there is no way to prevent freak injuries like what happened to Kyrie with his ACL injury, why should Dallas assume this risk at this point with Davis? The Mavericks traded Doncic for Davis in one of the most shocking trades ever to compete for a title right now. Since Irving is injured, that won’t happen this season.

However, once Irving is back next year and the Mavs continue to make moves to surround Davis, Irving, PJ Washington, Klay Thompson, and others with the necessary talent, they can be a championship-level organization again. With this said, Davis returning for the final 11 games of the season with no reward on the line, plus the risk of severe injury, makes zero sense.

As much as Davis wants to get back on the court, his return wouldn’t impact anything this season. If anything, it could negatively impact the Mavericks’ immediate and long-term future.

Anthony Davis’ return impacts Mavs’ potential draft position

Could Dallas somehow end up with the first overall pick and completely alter their future by getting Cooper Flagg?

While this is highly unlikely, it is possible. Right now, the Mavs own the 12th-worst record in the league, giving them about a 1.2 percent chance of jumping into the top spot via the NBA Draft Lottery. In total, they have about a 5.7 percent chance of jumping into the top four from that 12th overall spot.

The Mavericks currently lead the Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio Spurs by 2.5 games in the standings. Dallas is one game ahead of the Orlando Magic, three games ahead of the Chicago Bulls, and four games ahead of the Miami Heat in the complete NBA standings.

Both the Blazers and Bulls have been playing well lately, and the Heat will be motivated to kick things into a higher gear to improve their play-in outlook in the Eastern Conference. Dallas even plays on the road against Orlando and Chicago on March 27 and 29, respectively.

Two losses to the Magic and Bulls, as well as embracing the aspect of “tanking,” could see the Mavericks go from having the 12th-worst record in the league to possibly having the eighth-worst record. This would drastically change their odds of receiving a top pick.

Instead of a 1.2 percent chance of earning the first overall pick, the Mavs would now have a 6.0 percent chance at Flagg. In terms of earning a top-four pick, Dallas’ odds would go from 5.7 percent to 26.2 percent. That is a much better percentage to improve their immediate future than the Mavericks’ chances of winning during the play-in tournament and then pulling off one of the greatest upsets in recent memory over the Thunder.

One has to imagine that a 26.2 percent chance of getting a top-four pick is also better than the chances of Davis returning and remaining healthy this season.

No matter what pick the Mavericks end up with, this will be a tradable asset that Harrison and this front office can utilize to maximize their championship outlook. When taking this into account, it’s clear as to why keeping Davis sidelined and maximizing the potential of this draft pick is essential.

There is simply no upside in bringing Anthony Davis back this season, regardless of how much he wants to play.

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