Wizards preparing for next rebuilding steps with 'lucky' draft lottery
03/17/2025 06:14 PM
The Washington Wizards (15-51) are no longer the worst team in the NBA, as they’re one game ahead of the Utah Jazz (15-53) heading into Tuesday night. While there’s still a long way to go, it’s a significant accomplishment considering that the Wizards started 6-41, and is a promising sign for their rebuild.
However, general manager Will Dawkins admitted on Friday that they could still use some draft lottery luck to improve long-term, via The Sports Junkies.
“You definitely have to get lucky in terms of your positioning with some of the lottery balls,” the former Oklahoma City Thunder executive said. “But you put a plan in place, you have a couple exit ramps where you can get off if you need to, if it doesn’t go your way. But for the most part, it’s strategically driven. You’ve just gotta be fortunate where you’re at sometimes with the ping-pong balls, but also with how you evaluate. I think you control a lot of that.”
The NBA Draft Lottery will take place in Chicago on May 12, when the 14 non-playoff teams will find out where they’ll pick in the first round of the 2025 draft. If Washington maintains its spot as the second-worst team, it’ll have a 14 percent chance to land the N0. 1 selection and a 52.1 percent chance to get top-four, via Tankathon. However, it would also have 20 percent odds to get stuck at No. 6, while the worst team can’t go below No. 5.
Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1-14 will be put in a lottery machine, and the following process will occur, via NBA.com:
“There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams.”
“All 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and they are mixed for 20 seconds, and then the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds, and then the second ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the third ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the fourth ball is drawn. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the No. 1 pick. The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second through fourth picks.”
Once the top-four drawing is done, teams 5-14 will pick based on the inverse of the regular-season standings.
From the Bradley Beal and Jordan Poole trades to the acquisitions of Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington, and Kyshawn George, Dawkins has turned the team into one of the NBA’s most promising long-term projects. With that being said, he has no control over whether Washington gets the No. 1 pick this spring. Drafting Duke superstar Cooper Flagg at that spot would accelerate the rebuild, but the organization must have a contingency plan.
Regardless of what pick the Wizards get, though, they have the foundation to become a playoff team by 2027.
Will Dawkins credits young Wizards
Dawkins made a series of moves at the trade deadline that improved the team, namely swapping out Kyle Kuzma and Jonas Valanciunas for Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart. Most importantly, the young core is shining, exemplified by Alex Sarr’s 34-point night in Saturday’s 126-123 win over the Denver Nuggets.
The Sam Presti pupil shared his thoughts on how Washington’s rookies have played.
“I still think it’s a little early to say we hit home runs on these guys, but I would say we knew that first night that we hit home runs on them as people and as workers, and we knew the upside that they had,” he said. “And then it’s on them to kind of realize it with the resources that we provide and the player development plan in place. But to the credit for all three, they’ve really hit the ground running, and [head coach] Brian [Keefe’s] given them opportunities to play. That’s the thing for rookie players, it’s just experience and opportunities, and it helps the rate that they’re growing at.”
Indeed, Carrington, George, and Sarr lead all rookies with 29.3, 27.3, and 27 minutes per game, respectively, while New Orleans Pelicans center Yves Missi is tied with Sarr at third. That’s helped all of them flourish, as Sarr is second in the class with 12.3 points, 4.8 defensive rebounds, and 1.5 blocks a night, while George leads with one steal per game and is second with 1.7 three-pointers made. Additionally, Carrington is second with 4.1 assists.
Even if Washington doesn’t get Flagg, adding one of Rutgers’ Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey or Baylor’s VJ Edgecombe to this core would still be exciting. If it lands outside the top-four, it could add supporting piece like Texas’ Tre Johnson or Illinois’ Kasparas Jakucionis and hope for better luck in the 2026 lottery. That draft class will have young stars like BYU commit AJ Dybantsa, who’s the nation’s top-rated high-school player right now, via ESPN.
When and if the Wizards finally add a star, they’ll be on a path to championship contention by 2029.
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