3 keys that will decide UConn vs. UCLA in 2025 Final Four

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Women’s basketball fans looking to see a lot of scoring and free-flowing offense may have to wait until the second game on Friday night in Tampa Bay, but there is no question that they will get their wish. After South Carolina and Texas do battle in the first game of the Final Four, UConn and UCLA will go at it for the final spot in the national championship game.

Despite some very brief rough patches, these two teams have breezed through their respective regions. UCLA, the top overall seed in the tournament, won three consecutive lopsided contests before a hard-fought battle with Kim Mulkey and LSU in the Elite Eight. On the other side, UConn rolled through four consecutive games including a win over a feisty USC squad without JuJu Watkins in the regional final.

UConn is the only team in the Final Four that isn’t a No. 1 seed on either the men’s or the women’s side, but it still finds itself as the favorite to take home the trophy on Sunday. However, things won’t be easy for Geno Auriemma and company against a battle-tested UCLA squad that has been one of the top teams in the nation all season long.

Here are three keys that will decide who comes out on top in this matchup.

1. The dilemma facing Geno Auriemma

UConn is the favorite, a pretty heavy favorite according to the sports books, coming into this one, but it is still the rare occasion where the “better team” has to decide whether to adjust to the other team or not. That is the dilemma facing Auriemma and the Huskies coming into this contest.

Traditionally, UConn is at its best when playing four guards around Sarah Strong in the middle. Five of the top six players on the team in minutes are guards, but that may not cut it against this UCLA squad.

Lauren Betts is unquestionably the best big in college basketball. The All-American finished the season averaging 20 points and 9.6 rebounds per game while blocking three shots a game. In the NCAA Tournament, that scoring average is up to 23 points per game on 75% shooting (!!).

UClA complements Betts with a massive front line, and Cori Close plays two bigs together almost all of the time. 6-foot-3 Timea Gardiner and 6-foot-4 Angela Dugalic can both step out and shoot the 3-ball, while 6-foot-4 Janiah Barker averages six rebounds a game in just under 18 minutes on the court.

This massive front line is a huge advantage for UCLA. Defensively, the Bruins’ perimeter players funnel drives down into Betts, and UCLA ranks tied for fifth in the nation in opponent field goal percentage (35.2%) as a result. Close’s club is also second in the nation in rebounding margin (plus-12.2), so Auriemma and his staff must find a solution for that.

UConn is no stranger to playing against elite rebounding squads. Oklahoma, UConn’s opponent in the Sweet 16, came into the tournament with the best rebounding margin in the country, just ahead of UCLA. UConn finished that game plus-2 on the glass, though some of that can be attributed to a massive discrepancy in shooting efficiency.

Auriemma is presented with the following dilemma: does he play more of Ice Brady and 6-foot-5 center Jana El Alfy to counter the UCLA size? Or does he stick with his best rotation, utilizing the speed of UConn’s deep backcourt to attack the bigs and risk being crushed on the glass? His answer to that question will be fascinating and is a big storyline in this game.

2. Sarah Strong, welcome to the big time

Freshman phenom Sarah Strong doesn’t get the same attention that Paige Bueckers does, but she looks the part of a future UConn legend and WNBA superstar. The 6-foot-2 freshman can score from all three levels, is already an elite rebounder and is very stout defending the post.

Strong dominated an elite USC front line in the Elite Eight, scoring 22 points and grabbing 17 rebounds while holding Kiki Iriafen to just 3-for-15 shooting.

Strong is somewhat is a get out of jail free card for the Huskies. Geno Auriemma and company can dump it down to her in the post late in the clock, and she has begun to excel with the UConn guards in the two-player game. She shot 4-for-6 from 3-point range in the win over USC, so the UCLA bigs will have their hands full defending her all night long.

Strong becomes even more important in this matchup because of one critical stat. UCLA doesn’t allow its opponents to get good looks from 3-point range. The Bruins lead the Big Ten in that department, holding opposing teams to just 29% from deep. While that could take away from Strong’s production a little bit, it will also hurt the ability of Azzi Fudd and some of the other UConn supporting players to have a big impact as a scorer.

If the Huskies aren’t getting those looks, Strong could quickly become the focal point of the UConn offense against one of the best front lines in college basketball. That’s a massive burden to carry for a freshman, but the Madrid native has shown that she is ready for the moment. She may have to meet it again on Friday night.

3. How does UCLA slow down Paige Bueckers?

It’s pretty unbelievable that it took this long to get to the insane heater that Paige Bueckers is on, but that’s how many fascinating parts there are to this matchup. Bueckers is in the midst of an all-time great NCAA Tournament run.

Her stats over the last three games: 105 points (35 per game), 12 rebounds, 11 assists, 11 steals and four blocks. In that time, she is shooting 39-for-66 from the floor (59.1%) and is an astounding 13-for-21 from 3-point range.

UCLA is hoping that this run by Bueckers is just a footnote in this NCAA Tournament and not the main story. The Bruins have a lot of talented guards, but they have struggled with other top perimeter scorers this season.

Aneesah Morrow struggled against the size of UCLA on the interior, but Flau’jae Johnson dropped an efficient 28 points in LSU’s Elite Eight loss. JuJu Watkins dominated the Bruins in both regular season meetings before a bad shooting night doomed her in the Big Ten title game.

Kiki Rice and Gabriela Jaquez could both see time on Bueckers, but UCLA is going to have to throw more bodies at the projected No. 1 pick in the WNBA Draft in order to slow her down on the ball.

Bueckers’ work off the ball will be the most difficult thing for UCLA to stop. She is a great mover without the ball and is in such a great rhythm from beyond the arc at the moment, and her as a movement shooter coming off of screens could be the most dangerous way that UConn will deploy her on Friday.

If Bueckers can get to 30 points for the fourth consecutive game, UConn will very likely be headed to the title game. The plan that Close and her staff come up with to prevent that will be a major key to watch.

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