Auburn basketball's X-factor in 2025 Final Four vs. Florida, and it's not Johni Broome

04/01/2025 07:07 PM

After two close calls against Creighton and Michigan that required huge second half runs to come through, Auburn basketball soundly defeated Michigan State in the Elite Eight to advance to its first Final Four since 2019.

However, getting to San Antonio isn’t the goal for Bruce Pearl and this competitive group. Cutting down the nets there is.

Of course, a lot will have to go right for this Auburn squad to eventually reach its final goal and come out on top of the battle of the top seeds in San Antonio. First and foremost, Johni Broome must be healthy after suffering a concerning elbow injury in the Elite Eight against Michigan State. If Broome is operating at full capacity, Auburn will have its main source of offense and a massive energizer for the group.

Auburn’s guards will also play a key role, but the depth of the backcourt is what has been so deadly this season. Even just during this tournament, we have seen what Miles Kelly, Denver Jones and Tahaad Pettiford can do. Any of the three of them are capable of heating up at any given moment, and that could be the difference in these tightly-contested games.

There is also the wild card that is Chad Baker-Mazara. The 25-year old can score it with the best of them when he has it rolling, but shot selection errors and problems with his aggression can flare up and hurt the team at times.

However, none of those players are the X-factor for Auburn to cut down the nets in San Antonio.

Dylan Cardwell must come up big for Auburn

If Auburn wants to win a national championship, Dylan Cardwell has to be his best self over the next two games.

Broome’s injury makes Cardwell even more important in the two areas where he thrives the most: defense and rebounding. The senior big man has grabbed 27 rebounds and blocked five shots in four games so far in the Big Dance while altering many more opponent trips into the paint.

If the National Player of the Year candidate is compromised in any way, which seems like a real possibility considering that Broome is not practicing yet this week and was playing essentially without his right arm at the end of the Michigan State game, Cardwell must one up big and allow Auburn to survive in the front court.

Cardwell doesn’t have to score; that’s not really his game at all. For the season, the Augusta, GA native is averaging less than five points per game and has scored just 15 points in the four games so far in the NCAA Tournament. However, his contributions are often felt beyond the stat sheet, and that will need to continue.

Cardwell will definitely have his work cut out for him against three great groups of big men, no matter who Auburn basketball ends up matching up against. Florida has four bigs that will get plenty of run in Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu and Micah Handlogten. That’s a lot of bodies to throw at Broome, Cardwell and Chaney Johnson up front, so Cardwell will have to be ready to battle.

In the first meeting between these two SEC foes, Cardwell finished with five points and 12 rebounds but picked up four fouls in just 24 minutes. Foul trouble is something that Auburn cannot afford in a game against a Florida team that will have a ton of confidence after winning in The Jungle during the regular season, so Bruce Pearl and company need all hands on deck in this game.

Cardwell’s offense will likely only come from putbacks and dump-offs, but his performance at the free throw line will also be a major factor in this game. This season, he is just 31.8% at the line, which has been a massive vulnerability for this team. He is just 21-for-66 on the season, which could complicate his playing time especially at the end of both halves.

The extra wrench in this situation is that Florida head coach Todd Golden has already shown a level of analytical savvy when it comes to using fouls in the 1-and-1. The Gators essentially stole two possessions from Texas Tech during their Elite Eight comeback by taking intentional fouls and getting the Red Raiders to miss the front end of those 1-and-1s.

This Auburn basketball team needs Cardwell on the court, and thus it also needs him to make free throws or Golden will take advantage of it. If the big man can give Pearl and his squad quality minutes on the defensive end and help win the battle on the glass, that will go a long way toward sending the Tigers to the title game on Monday night.

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