Dream bracket scenario for Duke basketball in 2025 NCAA Tournament

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While Duke basketball is the nation’s top-ranked team and has the sport’s best player this season in Cooper Flagg, it likely won’t get the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. However, it could happen if the Blue Devils (28-3, 19-1 ACC) roll through the ACC Tournament and get outside help.

Although Auburn has lost two straight, it still is projected at that top spot due to strength of schedule, via ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. The No. 3 Tigers (27-4, 15-3 SEC) are 16-4 in Quad 1 games, while Duke is 7-3, via NCAA.com. Auburn’s 16 Quad 1 wins lead the country, and the SEC had a landmark season to boot. It won 88.9 percent of its non-conference games and went 58-19 vs. the four other power conferences, which is why Lunardi predicted it to send 13 teams to March Madness. The current record for one conference is 11, which the Big East accomplished in 2011.

The Tigers won sole possession of that league’s regular-season title, so they rightfully hold the advantage for the No. 1 overall seed heading into conference championships. But they’ll be vulnerable if they get embarrassed in the SEC Tournament Quarterfinal on Friday while the Blue Devils crush the ACC Tournament.

Duke benefitted from a weaker conference this season, as Louisville and Clemson are the only other ranked ACC teams. The Blue Devils beat Auburn 84-78 on Dec. 4, though, which is another resume-booster.

Duke won’t need to get the top seed to make the Final Four if it’s truly a championship-level team, but that scenario provides the friendliest pathway.

Duke basketball would draw easiest matchups as top overall seed

Taking a look at Lunardi’s bracketology, he has the top-seeded Tigers facing SIU Edwardsville/American for the No. 1 vs. 16 matchup in the South region, which figures to be a cakewalk. They’d then face Memphis/West Virginia in the second round, followed by Oregon/Liberty/Clemson/Lipscomb in the Sweet Sixteen.

Three of those teams are ranked, with the (Memphis) Tigers at No. 16 (26-5, 16-2 AAC), (Clemson) Tigers at No. 10 (26-5, 18-2 ACC), and the Ducks at No. 23 (23-8, 12-8 Big Ten). The worst-case scenario would be facing Memphis followed by Clemson, which upset Duke 77-71 on Feb. 8. However, while the (Memphis) Tigers are ranked No. 16, it’s not as battle-tested as an AAC team. They’ll likely be its only March Madness squad unless they lose the conference tournament, and have played just seven Quad 1 games (6-1).

Meanwhile, the (Clemson) Tigers would present a challenge, but they only played six Quad 1 games (4-2). Their upset of the Blue Devils proves that they can hang with anyone, but that was a close game at home. Playing on a neutral site in the postseason is a harder mission.

The Elite Eight matchup would then be vs. UCLA/Drake/Kentucky/Marquette/Baylor/Michigan State/Furman. The No. 7 Spartans (26-5, 17-3 Big Ten) would be the toughest draw of the group, as they’re 12-4 in Quad 1 contests.

Compare this to the East region, where Lunardi has Duke. He starts them off with the easy matchup vs. Quinnipiac/Southern, followed by a second-round bout with UConn/Vanderbilt. The two-time-defending-champion Huskies (22-9, 14-6) are 5-5 in Quad 1, while the Commodores are 5-8. Both programs have played more Q1 games than Memphis and have a better winning percentage in such contests than West Virginia (6-10). Also, UConn head coach Dan Hurley is one of the best.

Then there’s BYU/UC San Diego/Wisconsin/High Point in the Sweet Sixteen. The No. 17 Cougars (23-8, 14-6 Big 12) are 5-6 in Q1, while the No. 18 Badgers (23-8, 13-7 Big Ten) are 6-7. That’s more experience against top opponents than all teams except Oregon (8-6) in the South region at this point in the bracket.

Finally, the Elite Eight game is against Michigan/VCU/Iowa State/Northern Colorado/Louisville/Georgia/Tennessee/Central Connecticut. The No. 8 Volunteers (25-6, 12-6 SEC) top this crop of programs with a 10-6 Q1 record.

Although the real bracket won’t have these exact teams in each region, it’ll likely be similar in quality. The No. 1 overall seed may have to face several ranked teams, but they won’t be as proven in Q1 play as other regions until the Elite Eight.

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