Florida vs. Arkansas prediction, odds, pick for College Basketball
01/10/2025 01:53 PM
Amid its first losing streak of 2024-2025, Arkansas (11-4) faces another tough matchup on Saturday with Florida (14-1) in Fayetteville. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Florida-Arkansas prediction and pick.
Florida, ranked No. 8 in the country, is coming off a massive win over No. 1-ranked Tennessee. The Gators emphatically bounced back from their first loss of the season in their previous game against Kentucky. They are now 1-1 in the SEC.
The John Calipari-led Arkansas team has endured tough back-to-back losses to Tennessee and Ole Miss. The losses drop them to 0-2 in the SEC as they return home to face another top-10 opponent.
Here are the Florida-Arkansas College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Florida-Arkansas Odds
Florida: -5.5 (-102)
Moneyline: -215
Arkansas: +5.5 (+120)
Moneyline: +176
Over: 155.5 (-110)
Under: 155.5 (-110)
How to Watch Florida vs. Arkansas
Time: 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Florida Will Cover The Spread/Win
This is arguably the most complete Florida team of all time. They run at one of the fastest and most efficient paces in the country while locking in on defense, limiting opponents to just 37.4 percent from the field. Despite losing a shootout to Kentucky, the Gators bounced back by limiting No. 1-ranked Tennessee to just 43 points. It still feels like they can win any type of game and are just hitting their stride.
Right now, Arkansas is struggling to find points. They scored just 52 against Tennessee and 66 against Ole Miss. While those are two premier defensive teams, Florida is arguably better than both. The Razorbacks typically score by committee but get most of their points in the paint, where the Gators rank third in the SEC defensively.
Calipari claimed that the Tennessee woes were due to not having a shootaround before the game but their struggles carried over into their next game. Why a legendary coach like Calipari would choose not to have a shootaround before facing the top-ranked team in the nation is a complete mystery. Who knows what is going on with Arkansas right now. The Razorbacks are just 1-3 against ranked teams and 4-10-1 ATS overall.
Why Arkansas Will Cover The Spread/Win
Freshman guard Boogie Fland has been the X-factor to Calipari’s offense early on. Fland has scored 15 or more points in nine games on the year, in which Arkansas averages 85 points per game. In the six other games, they average just 71.6 points per game. Likewise, they are 8-1 when Fland scores 15 or more and 3-3 when he does not.
Typically, Arkansas does not want to push a pace. They are just 118th in possessions per game. But it takes no effort to see that the offense is best when Fland gets them to run. He just has not found a rhythm in his last two games, in which he has shot a combined 10-for-35 from the field.
Florida has struggled at times containing quicker guards like Fland. UNC’s RJ Davis scored 29 against them while Florida State’s Jamir Watkins managed 19 early in the year. When Fland finds the bottom of the net, everything opens up for Arkansas. In similar situations, Florida has allowed teams to run with them.
As the home team, the tight schedule gives Arkansas a slight edge. Both will be playing their third game in the past eight days, but the Razorbacks will have remained at home for the past two. Florida has needed to travel for every game of the eight-day stretch.
Final Florida-Arkansas Prediction & Pick
Entering this game, Arkansas is just 1-3 against ranked opponents and 2-4 against power conference schools. Save for a quality win over Michigan, the Razorbacks have struggled against elite opposition. Fingers can be pointed all around, but they seem to be enduring a rough adjustment period while former March Madness star Johnell Davis has just not panned out. The timing of this matchup is rough for Arkansas.
In their last win over Tennessee, Florida displayed everything one would want to see out of a team coming off its first loss. The chances of a letdown game are high, but arguably no other team in the country is currently as experienced and focused as they are.
Florida has covered in five of the last six meetings between the teams, all as a single-digit favorite. Similarly, four of the last six matchups have gone under. Only five of Florida’s games have combined for 156 or more points while only four of Arkansas’ have reached the mark.
Final Florida-Arkansas Prediction & Pick: Florida -5.5 (-102), Under 155.5 (-110)
The post Florida vs. Arkansas prediction, odds, pick for College Basketball appeared first on ClutchPoints.
