Florida vs. Kentucky prediction, odds, pick for College Basketball

01/02/2025 06:06 PM

The biggest college basketball game of the week will tip off on Saturday morning when Kentucky (11-2) hosts the undefeated Florida (13-0). It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Florida-Kentucky prediction and pick.

Kentucky has impressed during its non-conference schedule with wins over Gonzaga and Duke but will enter the matchup just two games removed from a listless blowout loss to Ohio State. The Wildcats rebounded in their last effort, beating Brown 88-54 in their final non-conference game.

Florida is one of just three undefeated teams remaining, all in the SEC. The Gators have run through most of their early competition, including a 40-point win over Stetson on Dec. 29.

Here are the Florida-Kentucky College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel 

College Basketball Odds: Florida-Kentucky Odds

Florida: +1.5 (-112)

Moneyline: -104

Kentucky: -1.5 (-108)

Moneyline: -115

Over: 165.5 (-108)

Under: 165.5 (-112)

How to Watch Florida vs. Kentucky

Time: 11 a.m. ET / 8 a.m. PT

TV: ESPN

*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why Florida Will Cover The Spread/Win

Florida has not only been winning games but also covering at a high rate, going 10-3 ATS. They are now underdogs for the first time all year, meaning they are a perfect 13/13 so far to a +1.5 spread. Their biggest knock has been their strength of schedule, but they have done what they were supposed to do nearly every time out. Kentucky, while 11-2, is just 7-6 ATS.

In his second season with the team, Walter Clayton Jr. has not skipped a beat leading the Gators’ high-powered offense. Florida is 33rd in possessions per game, second in field goal attempts, and ninth in total shots made. They may not be the most efficient team, but their pace has been an issue for most opponents thus far.

Florida’s ability to control the pace has forced its opponents to try to keep up with its offense. As a result, they are among the top 20 in forcing contested three-pointers, allowing opponents to hit just 26.6 percent from deep, second in the country. The Gators have also dominated the glass all season long, ranking No. 1 in the nation in total rebounds per game.

Why Kentucky Will Cover The Spread/Win

Kentucky has been shaky lately, raising serious questions with its lackluster performances against Ohio State and Colgate. But after 10 days off, they looked much improved against Brown on New Year’s Eve, easily covering the wide spread.

As fast as Florida wants to play, Kentucky will be just the third team that can match its pace. The other two teams — Florida State and UNC — gave the Gators their toughest games of the early season. The biggest difference between Kentucky and the two aforementioned teams is the Wildcats’ defense. Kentucky’s 99.1 defensive rating ranks 56th on KenPom. Florida State ranks 71st, with UNC at 61.

Kentucky will also be the best rebounding team Florida will face. The Gators rank second in offensive rebounding and second-chance points. Seven-foot center Amari Williams leads their interior that ranks second in defensive rebounds.

Final Florida-Kentucky Prediction & Pick

This game may tip off on a Saturday morning in Lexington but expect the Rupp Arena to be alive. In their first season without John Calipari, this fanbase is as hungry as ever and has shown up for each of their previous big home games.

With the coin-flip odds, we give a slight edge to Kentucky, who is already 2-0 against top-10 teams at home. However, the biggest edge seems to be on the over 165.5.

Both teams are in the top 10 in offensive rating, top 10 in field goal attempts per game, and run at a top-75 pace. Florida is just 5-8 to the O/U, mostly due to blowout wins. The three games they have won by 15 points or less all went over. As a home favorite, Kentucky has hit the over in 60 percent of its games this season.

Final Florida-Kentucky Prediction & Pick: Kentucky -1.5 (-108), Over 165.5 (-108)

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