Houston vs. Duke prediction, odds, pick, spread for Men's Final Four 2025

Yesterday at 07:28 PM

San Antonio will host the 2025 Final Four and NCAA National Championship game. All four No. 1 seeds are alive for the second time ever and first since 2008. Any one of these elite programs can win it all. SEC powerhouses, Florida and Auburn, start us off, and then Houston and Duke go at it for a chance to play in the championship. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Houston-Duke prediction and pick.

Houston is considered one of the best defensive teams in the country and has been for a long time now. Kelvin Sampson is an experienced coach who has yet another title contender. He has yet to win it all, but he’s been close before. Sampson has a great team led by L.J. Cryer. and a phenomenal defense poised to try and contain future No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft, Cooper Flagg. Houston defeated SIUE, Gonzaga, Purdue, and Tennessee to be in this position.

Many assume Duke will win it all once again because they have the best player. They are more than capable of doing so but they have yet to play a defense as tough as Houston. I’m sure head coach Jon Scheyer will have his team locked in and ready for the challenge. Duke defeated Mount Saint Mary’s, Baylor, Arizona, and Alabama to be in this position. Knowing Duke will play an SEC team in the Final if they make it, beating Alabama in the Elite Eight was a big deal to prepare them for that. Taking down a top-three defense in the nation should also give them a ton of momentum.

Here are the Houston-Duke College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel 

2025 March Madness Odds: Houston-Duke Odds

Houston: +5.5 (-115)

Moneyline: +205

Duke: -5.5 (-105)

Moneyline: -255

Over: 135.5 (-115)

Under: 135.5 (-105)

How to Watch Houston vs. Duke

Time: 8:49 ET/5:49 PT

TV: CBS

*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why Houston Will Cover The Spread/Win

This is projected to be a low-scoring game, as you can tell by the odds. If it is low-scoring, that heavily favors the Cougars. They play extremely hard on the defensive end and do a lot to make opposing players feel uncomfortable. They will try and make Flagg feel as uncomfortable as possible. Despite being very talented, Flagg has never been in this position before. Sampson coached Houston to the Final Four in 2021, however, they lost to eventual champion Baylor. Houston responded by going to the Elite Eight in 2022 and at least a Sweet 16 appearance dating back to 2019.

So far in March, Gonzaga is the only team to score more than 68 points against Houston when they lost by five in the Round of 32. Every team has a tough time scoring against Sampson’s team. As you may assume, the Cougars led the nation in opposing points per game, allowing just 58.3. Teams shoot just 38.2% against the Cougars which also led the nation, 0.1 ahead of San Diego State.

Speaking of the Aztecs, they were one of four teams to beat the Cougars this season. Houston responded by winning 13 straight and is now currently winners of 17 straight. Cryer leads the team in scoring at 15.4 points and shoots 41.9% from three-point range. Emanuel Sharp is second on the team at 12.7 points and leads the team in steals per game at 1.4. Cryer and Sharp will be tasked with proving the load offensively in what will be a close game.

Houston is 20-16-2 against the spread and 16-22 on over/unders.

Why Duke Will Cover The Spread/Win

This is Duke’s first Final Four since 2022 in Coach K’s last season. Jon Scheyer has done a great job since taking over with an Elite Eight appearance last year. Coaching one of the best teams in the country this season, he understands how important it is to put Duke back on top. Duke is 122-40 all-time in the Big Dance and last won it all in 2015.

Houston isn’t the only good defense on the floor. Duke is considered a top-10 defensive unit. They are fourth in the nation in opposing field goal percentage and seventh in points allowed at 62.6 per game. If the Blue Devils can replicate what the Cougars do defensively, then they will have the advantage. Houston is going to try and tire out the Blue Devils, but if they can play at their pace they should be fine. A low-scoring game will favor Houston because the game will be right where they want it. That doesn’t mean Duke will lose. Duke has the better offensive players and most importantly, the best player in the country.

Flagg averages 18.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game. Those numbers are absurd. He shoots just under 50% from the floor and 37% from deep. If he isn’t impacted by the Cougars’ aggressive defense, then Duke will cover this spread and win easily.

Flagg isn’t alone. He has Kon Knuppel and Tyrese Proctor by his side. They both average north of 12 points per game and shoot above 45% from the field. The freshman duo of Flagg and Knueppel will go down as one of the best in program history and NCAA history, especially if they hoist the trophy.

Duke is 25-13 against the spread and 20-18 on over/unders.

Final Houston-Duke Prediction & Pick

This will be a defensive battle, but because it’s March, there will be fireworks. I like the Blue Devils, led by the best player in the country to edge out the Cougars and win by at least six points.

Final Houston-Duke Prediction & Pick: Duke -5.5 (-105)

The post Houston vs. Duke prediction, odds, pick, spread for Men’s Final Four 2025 appeared first on ClutchPoints.