Kentucky vs Tennessee prediction, odds, pick for Men's March Madness 2025

03/26/2025 01:49 PM

It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Kentucky-Tennessee prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Kentucky-Tennessee.

The Tennessee Volunteers have never reached the Final Four. Rick Barnes made a Final Four with Texas in 2003, but he hasn’t been back since, and he has never been able to break through in Knoxville with the Vols. Tennessee has consistently been a top-four NCAA Tournament seed in recent years under Barnes. Here are the Vols, once again in the Sweet 16 with a chance to do something special and memorable. They are two wins away from that Final Four, but crossing those final few hurdles has been a consistent problem. UT lost to Florida Atlantic in the 2023 Sweet 16. Last year, Tennessee had the misfortune of running into National Player of the Year Zach Edey and Purdue in the Elite Eight. This year, Tennessee does not have a favorable or kind draw in the Sweet 16.

Kentucky beat Tennessee twice in the regular season. The Wildcats have proved to be Tennessee’s kryptonite.

Tennessee has to defeat a nemesis to reach the Elite Eight. Then the Vols might need to beat Houston to get to the Final Four. The Vols are just two wins away from their goal, but getting these two wins figures to be immensely difficult.

Here are the Kentucky-Tennessee College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel 

2025 March Madness Tournament Odds: Kentucky-Tennessee Odds

Kentucky: +4.5 (-115)

Moneyline: +158

Tennessee: -4.5 (-105)

Moneyline: -192

Over: 144.5 (-112)

Under: 144.5 (-108)

How to Watch Kentucky vs Tennessee

Time: 7:39 p.m. ET/4:39 p.m. PT

TV: TBS

*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why Kentucky Will Cover The Spread/Win

Tennessee’s offense is not relentlessly consistent in general, but beyond that, Kentucky’s less-than-great defense has actually been able to contain the Volunteers’ offense in two meetings this season. Kentucky has been torched by a number of SEC teams, but against Tennessee, the Wildcats’ defense has been fine — actually, better than fine. Kentucky has held Tennessee under 75 points in both meetings, and under 70 points in one of the two meetings. If Kentucky holds Tennessee under 70 points in this game, it will be extremely unlikely that Tennessee will win. Since Tennessee is favored by 4.5 points, UT scoring under 70 in this game would mean Kentucky covering would be a near lock. This game is going to be played at a fast-enough pace that the final score will not be in the high 50s or low 60s. If Tennessee doesn’t score, a Kentucky spread bet is almost certain to cash.

Why Tennessee Will Cover The Spread/Win

Tennessee, 0-2 versus Kentucky this season, will be hugely motivated by the need to not only advance in March Madness and reach its first Final Four, but to get revenge against UK. The Vols are going to be the hungrier team after losing twice to the Wildcats this season. It is extremely hard to win three out of three games against the same opponent in a season if that opponent is a good team. Tennessee certainly rates as a very strong team, and it is highly improbable that it will lose three out of three times to a Kentucky team which is very good but not dominant.

Final Kentucky-Tennessee Prediction & Pick

Tennessee is playing for revenge and for a first trip to the Final Four, but Kentucky has UT’s number and yet is still an underdog. Take Kentucky against the spread.

Final Kentucky-Tennessee Prediction & Pick: Kentucky +4.5

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