Michigan State vs Auburn prediction, odds, pick for Men's March Madness 2025
03/29/2025 04:57 PM
It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Michigan State-Auburn prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Michigan State-Auburn.
The Auburn Tigers were one of the two best teams in college basketball during the regular season. Auburn and Duke had the two best resumes. They were the two most consistent team. They both won regular-season conference championships, and Auburn won the toughest Southeastern Conference we have ever seen in men’s basketball. Auburn won a version of the SEC which put 14 teams in the NCAA Tournament, seven in the Sweet 16, and four in the Elite Eight.
As good as Auburn has been since early November, however, the Tigers haven’t been nearly as imposing in March as they were through the month of February. They are still winning, but not as convincingly. Auburn trailed Creighton midway through the second half in the second round before rallying to win. Auburn was down eight to Michigan midway through the second half of Friday night’s game before coming back to win. Auburn doesn’t want to keep tempting fate by falling behind in a first half.
The same can be said for Michigan State. The Spartans have trailed in the first half of all three NCAA Tournament games they have played, including in the first round versus Bryant. Michigan State fell behind by at least 10 points against both New Mexico and Ole Miss in their past two March Madness games. They have come back to win each time because they are tough and resilient. However, they — like Auburn — will not want to climb uphill at halftime if they don’t need to.
Here are the Michigan State-Auburn College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
2025 March Madness Tournament Odds: Michigan State-Auburn Odds
Michigan State: +5.5 (-118)
Moneyline: +176
Auburn: -5.5 (-104)
Moneyline: -215
Over: 147.5 (-115)
Under: 147.5 (-105)
How to Watch Michigan State vs Auburn
Time: 5:05 p.m. ET/2:05 p.m. PT
TV: CBS
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Michigan State Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Spartans own second halves this tournament. They have dominated opponents after halftime and are therefore going to not allow Auburn to go on one of its familiar second-half runs. Auburn depends on being able to wear down an opponent for 40 minutes. Michigan State simply isn’t going to let that happen, because the Spartans have been the best second-half team in this event.
Why Auburn Will Cover The Spread/Win
In our Auburn-Michigan betting preview from Friday, we wrote this in our “Why Auburn will cover the spread/win” section:
“The Tigers trailed Creighton 50-48 early in the second half of last weekend’s second-round March Madness game. Then they went on a 10-0 run. They found another gear and were able to win by 12, covering what was a 9.5-point spread. This is the thing about Auburn: It can play an ordinary game for 25 minutes but then play five elite minutes and completely change a game. What might feel like a game in which Auburn won’t cover the spread can turn into a comfortable cover in five or six minutes. This is something bettors love to see in a team. Auburn’s guards are much better than Michigan’s guards. That figures to be a main point of separation between the two sides over 40 full minutes.”
Everything we said applied to the Michigan game. Auburn was down eight but then uncorked a huge run and covered the spread, winning by double digits on a night in which it was favored by 9.5 points at tipoff. There’s nothing else to add here.
Final Michigan State-Auburn Prediction & Pick
Our lean is to Michigan State, but with Auburn’s ability to go on 10-0 runs in second halves, we’re going to recommend you pass on this one or at least wait for a second-half live play.
Final Michigan State-Auburn Prediction & Pick: Michigan State +5.5
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