Mississippi State vs. Memphis prediction, odds, pick for College Basketball

12/20/2024 04:43 PM

The college basketball season continues on Saturday with a matchup between Mississippi State and Memphis. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Mississippi State-Memphis prediction and pick.

Mississippi State (10-1) visits No. 21 Memphis (9-2) in a marquee Saturday matchup. The Bulldogs, led by their balanced offense averaging 84.1 points per game, are riding a four-game win streak and boast a stingy defense allowing just 67.7 points per game. Memphis counters with PJ Haggerty, who scored 27 points in their recent win over Virginia, and an offense averaging 79.5 points. Both teams excel in rebounding, with Mississippi State holding a slight edge. This clash of SEC and AAC powerhouses promises high energy and could hinge on turnovers and perimeter shooting efficiency.

Here are the Mississippi State-Memphis College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel 

College Basketball Odds: Mississippi State-Memphis Odds

Mississippi State: +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline: +100

Memphis: -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline: -120

Over: 154.5 (-110)

Under: 154.5 (-110)

How to Watch Mississippi State vs. Memphis

Time: 12:30 PM ET/9:30 AM PT

TV: CBS

*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why Mississippi State Will Cover The Spread/Win

Mississippi State is poised to defeat Memphis in their upcoming matchup due to their superior ball control and defensive prowess. The Bulldogs rank sixth in Division I with a remarkable 1.97 assists-to-turnover ratio, showcasing their ability to protect the ball against pressure defenses like Memphis’s full-court press. In their recent games, Mississippi State has demonstrated efficiency, recording only five turnovers in a dominant win against Central Michigan. This discipline will be crucial in maintaining offensive flow and minimizing scoring opportunities for Memphis.

Additionally, Mississippi State’s balanced scoring attack, averaging 84.1 points per game, presents a significant challenge for the Tigers. The Bulldogs have multiple scoring threats, which allows them to adapt their offensive strategy based on matchups. Their defense, allowing just 68.6 points per game, will be instrumental in containing Memphis’s high-scoring capabilities. With a strong rebounding game and the ability to capitalize on turnovers—evidenced by their 23-4 advantage in points off turnovers against Memphis in prior encounters—Mississippi State is well-equipped to secure a victory and extend their winning streak against the Tigers.

Why Memphis Will Cover The Spread/Win

Memphis’s strength lies in its dynamic backcourt, particularly PJ Haggerty, who has been a consistent scoring threat. The Tigers rank as one of the top three-point shooting teams in the nation, while Mississippi State struggles defensively against perimeter shooters, ranking 326th in three-point defense. This mismatch could lead to significant scoring opportunities for Memphis. Furthermore, the Tigers’ ability to adapt and win games even when their shooting is off—evident in their recent victory over Virginia—highlights their depth and versatility. Expect Memphis to leverage its home advantage and superior perimeter game to secure a narrow victory over Mississippi State, covering the spread in what promises to be an exciting contest.

Defensively, Memphis has shown resilience, allowing 75.7 points per game but demonstrating the ability to create turnovers, averaging 6.9 steals per game. This aggressive defense can disrupt Mississippi State's rhythm and force them into unfavorable situations. Additionally, Memphis’s strength of schedule has prepared them for tough matchups, giving them the experience needed to handle high-pressure games. The combination of their offensive efficiency and defensive tenacity positions Memphis as the favorite to win this contest, especially with home-court advantage playing a significant role in energizing their performance. Expect Memphis to leverage their strengths effectively and come away with a crucial win against the Bulldogs.

Final Mississippi State-Memphis Prediction & Pick

The upcoming matchup between Mississippi State and Memphis promises to be a closely contested battle, with Memphis holding a slight edge as 1.5-point favorites. Both teams have demonstrated strong offensive capabilities, with Mississippi State averaging 84.1 points per game and Memphis not far behind at 79.5 points per game. Mississippi State’s defensive prowess, allowing just 67.7 points per game, could be a decisive factor. Their ability to limit opponents’ scoring opportunities may prove challenging for Memphis’s offense. Additionally, the Bulldogs’ rebounding advantage, ranking 46th in the country with 37.0 rebounds per game, could provide crucial second-chance opportunities and limit Memphis’s possessions.

However, Memphis has shown resilience and the ability to perform in high-pressure situations, as evidenced by their recent overtime victory against Clemson. The Tigers’ home-court advantage at FedExForum could also play a significant role in energizing their performance. PJ Haggerty’s standout performances for Memphis, averaging 22.4 points per game with impressive shooting percentages, will be a key factor for the Tigers. On the other side, Josh Hubbard’s 18.0 points per game for Mississippi State will be crucial for the Bulldogs’ offensive output. Given the narrow spread, this game could easily go either way. However, considering Mississippi State’s stronger defensive metrics and rebounding advantage, they have a good chance of covering the +1.5 spread, even if Memphis manages to eke out a close victory on the road.

Final Mississippi State-Memphis Prediction & Pick: Mississippi State +1.5 (-110), Over 154.5 (-110)

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