New Mexico vs Michigan State prediction, odds, pick for Men's March Madness 2025
03/23/2025 04:09 AM
It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a New Mexico-Michigan State prediction and pick. Find out how to watch New Mexico-Michigan State.
The Michigan State Spartans are in a position to make a charge at the Final Four. They were a No. 2 seed when they made the Final Four in 2019. Six years later, after a lot of struggles, Tom Izzo finally has a team which seems capable of making another really deep run in the bracket. However, standing in the way of Izzo is another Italian-American head coach.
Saturday gave us a Pitino-Calipari second-round March Madness game. This is a Pitino-Izzo second-round game. It’s not Rick, it’s Richard Pitino going up against Izzo.
Richard Pitino really seems to be putting the pieces together for the Lobos. He made the NCAA Tournament before, but this team is more cohesive. It is tougher than previous UNM teams Richard Pitino had in Albuquerque. That toughness was apparent in the Friday win over seventh-seeded Marquette. New Mexico looked like the better team for most of the game and was obviously superior down the stretch. Now New Mexico tries to get back to the Sweet 16. This hasn’t happened since 1974. It would be a major achievement for the younger Pitino if he could do something his father failed to do on Saturday against John Calipari and Arkansas.
Here are the New Mexico-Michigan State College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
2025 March Madness Tournament Odds: New Mexico-Michigan State Odds
New Mexico: +7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +255
Michigan State: -7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -320
Over: 148.5 (-110)
Under: 148.5 (-110)
How to Watch New Mexico vs Michigan State
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET/5:40 p.m. PT
TV: TNT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why New Mexico Will Cover The Spread/Win
If you have followed Michigan State, you know this team can struggle to shoot. Interestingly, this is how St. John’s and Rick Pitino lost to Arkansas as well. Richard Pitino can force Michigan State to beat New Mexico with jump shots. UNM has a better, tougher defense this season than it did last season. It has the personnel needed to turn MSU into a jump-shooting team. If the Lobos can do that and then grab the defensive rebound on a consistent basis, New Mexico can dictate the style of play and not only cover the spread, but win outright. The spread seems a bit large given how good New Mexico looked in an outright win as a slight underdog against Marquette, a higher-seeded opponent. New Mexico looks like a tough out here. Michigan State is going to get a tough game.
Why Michigan State Will Cover The Spread/Win
We saw Michigan State struggle for a long time with Bryant on Friday night, which might seem like a reason to pick against Michigan State here against New Mexico. However, once MSU got going, it really put away its opponent, and it was enough to cover the spread. Michigan State trailed Byrant with under five minutes left in the first half. It seemed MSU was highly unlikely to cover the 17.5-point spread. However, MSU went on a 12-4 run to gain a five-point halftime lead. The Spartans were up only six with 14:15 left, but then came another big push. Michigan State raced past Bryant 41-22 the rest of the way to win by 25 and cover with a working margin relative to the pregame spread. Michigan State, like other elite teams, banks on being able to wear down an opponent over 40 full minutes. MSU might not be covering the spread after 25 or 30 minutes, but those final 10-15 minutes are when the Spartans gain separation and cash a spread bet.
Final New Mexico-Michigan State Prediction & Pick
This feels like a good second-half live-play bet. Feel out the first half and then pounce on the right opportunity. Don’t make a pregame spread bet.
Final New Mexico-Michigan State Prediction & Pick: Michigan State -7.5
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