North Carolina vs. Duke prediction, pick, college basketball odds
01/31/2025 03:01 PM
The biggest rivalry in the sport takes place on Saturday evening as Duke hosts North Carolina. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a North Carolina-Duke prediction and pick.
North Carolina is not having a season to remember. They want this 2024-25 campaign to end quickly as they don’t have much of a shot to make the NCAA Tournament and won’t make much noise in the ACC Tournament either. They would need to win the conference tournament with explosive offense in order to make the Big Dance. At 13-9 and 6-4 in the ACC, the Tar Heels still have two games against Duke which is still plenty to play for. UNC has wins over Dayon, UNLA, SMU, NC State, and Cal. They are 1-4 against AP Top 25 teams, losing to Kansas, Auburn, Michigan State (unranked at the time), Alabama, and Florida.
Duke is favored alongside Auburn to win the NCAA Tournament, according to FanDuel. As the No. 2 team in the country, they defeated Auburn earlier in the season and their only two losses are to Kentucky and Kansas. Since then, the Blue Devils have won 14 straight games. They have wins over Arizona, Auburn, Louisville, and SMU. Duke is a perfect 10-0 in the ACC. Despite being a big favorite against their rivals tomorrow night, the Blue Devils cannot take this contest lightly.
Here are the North Carolina-Duke College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: North Carolina-Duke Odds
North Carolina: +13.5 (-106)
Moneyline: +720
Duke: -13.5 (-114)
Moneyline: -1200
Over: 149.5 (-105)
Under: 149.5 (-115)
How to Watch North Carolina vs. Duke
Time: 6:30 ET/3:30 PT
TV: ESPN
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why North Carolina Will Cover The Spread/Win
North Carolina is coming off a loss to Pitt on the road by eight points. Head coach Jay Williams was not happy. UNC is not accustomed to losing games and the players are starting to doubt themselves. They are losers of three of their last four games and need something to change quickly. Maybe, a game against Duke can get them going. This rivalry is one of the biggest in all of sports and the Tar Heels are more than capable of upsetting Duke in Durham.
Despite all the frustration and losing, North Carolina boasts a great offense averaging 81.7 points per game, tied for 34th in the nation. RJ Davis leads the way at 17.6 points per game on 39.7% from the floor. He adds 3.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.2 steals as well. Davis has scored in double figures in all but two games this season with a season-high of 30 in the win against Dayton in the Maui Invitational. Ian Jackson is second on the squad at 14.7 points per game on 48.7% shooting. The freshman from New York is one of the top in his class already showcasing his elite offense. Jackson has a season-high of 27 points against Notre Dame and has scored 20+ points in seven games. The Tar Heels have a chance to cover this spread if both of these players play well. They both need to score at least 15+ points to have a shot.
UNC contains two more guards who average north of 10 points per game as a very guard-heavy team. Seth Trimble is a respectable all-around guard who averages 12.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.5 steals. However, Trimble shoots a miserable 15.8% from deep on the road. He must change his ways against Duke because if he doesn’t connect from beyond the arc then he will continue to hurt his team. Elliot Cadeau averages 10.7 points and 6.1 assists. as the team’s main facilitator.
The Tar Heels are just 7-13 against the spread and 9-13 on over/under’s.
Why Duke Will Cover The Spread/Win
Duke star Cooper Flagg is coming off one of the top games of his young career against NC State. The freshman scored 28 points and played very well in the second half to come back and take down the Wolfpack. His 23 points in the second half sparked the Blue Devils’ dominance as they scored 41 second-half points. Flagg is now averaging 19.9 points, 8.0 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.2 blocks, and 1.5 steals per game. He even shoots 48.7% from the floor and 32.9% from deep. His season-high is 42 points which he did against Notre Dame a few weeks back. There is no doubt that Flagg will be the top pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Fellow freshman Kon Knueppel is having a great season as well. He is averaging 13.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 0.7 steals per game. He scored 19 in the win over NC State and has scored in double figures in all but four games this year. His season-high is 25 in the win over Miami. Tyrese Proctor is third on the team in scoring at 10.4 per game. Those three provide the load of the offense. 7-foot-2 freshman center Khaman Maluach is second on the team in rebounds at 6.2 per game and shoots 75.6% from the floor. He doesn’t qualify but if he did, he would be leading the nation in FG%. Duke relies on freshmen but they contain the top freshmen in the country.
Duke is 12-8 ATS and 8-12 on O/U’s.
Final North Carolina-Duke Prediction & Pick
UNC is not winning games and they hardly cover, however, they have back-to-back 1-point losses in two of their last three. They will likely fall short on the road against Duke but with a game of this magnitude, the UNC offense will do enough to cover.
Final North Carolina-Duke Prediction & Pick: North Carolina +13.5 (-106), Over 149.5 (-105)
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