Northwestern vs. Minnesota prediction, odds, pick for Big Ten Tournament

03/11/2025 07:18 PM

These two teams have embodied mediocrity and inconsistency in the Big Ten this season. A win in this game would do well for their momentum for the tournament and next season. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Northwestern-Minnesota prediction and pick.

Northwestern is 16-15 this season, with notable wins against UNLV, Illinois, Maryland, and Ohio State. They also have losses against Purdue, Michigan State, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Nebraska. Nick Martinelli has been easily the best player on the Wildcats and they need him to have a big game against Minnesota in this game to start the Big Ten Tournament.

Minnesota is 15-16, with quality Big Ten wins against Michigan, Oregon, UCLA, and Nebraska. They have also suffered significant losses against Wake Forest, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin twice, Maryland, Michigan State, Illinois, and Wisconsin. The Golden Gophers need Dawson Garcia to take control of this game and be Superman in the game against the Wildcats to start the conference tournament.

Here are the Northwestern-Minnesota College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel 

Big Ten Tournament Odds: Northwestern-Minnesota Odds

Northwestern: -2.5 (-106)

Moneyline: -138

Minnesota: +2.5 (-114)

Moneyline: +115

Over: 126.5 (-115)

Under: 126.5 (-105)

How to Watch Northwestern vs. Minnesota

Time: 3:30 pm ET/12:30 pm PT

TV: Peacock

*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why Northwestern Will Cover The Spread/Win

Northwestern’s defense has been solid since the start of the year and has remained a bright spot for a struggling team. They allow 69.3 points per game, 43.5% from the field and 33.9% from behind the arc. This defense is also ranked 44th in KenPom in adjusted defense with a rating of 98.2.

The frontcourt has struggled this year, and Barnhizer’s absence has hurt the defense. Martinelli leads the team in rebounding with 6.2 per game. Matthew Nicholson leads the team in blocks at 1.3 per game. This frontcourt has been a significant weakness, and Minnesota will struggle against it. The perimeter and on-ball defense has been solid—four Wildcats average at least one steal, with Ty Berry leading with 1.4 per game.

This defense is a huge key in this game. Minnesota has also struggled on offense, so this might become a rockfight to start the Big Ten tournament.

Minnesota’s offense has been awful and is undoubtedly the worst in the Big Ten. They score 68.2 points per game, have a 44.3% field goal percentage, and a 32.2% three-point shooting percentage. They also have the 107th-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency rating on KenPom, a 110.5 rating.

Only three Golden Gophers are averaging over double digits in scoring, and Garcia has emerged as the most consistent scorer on the team, averaging 19.1 points per game. Garcia is one of the best scorers in the entire country overall. The Golden Gophers have been solid regarding ball movement. They are averaging 15.4 assists per game. Femi Odukale is the team leader in assists with 3.6 per game.

This offense relies so much on Garcia, but they need some help outside of that. He needs to be the difference maker in this game against the Wildcats, but help is needed against this defense.

Why Minnesota Will Cover The Spread/Win

Northwestern’s offense has been inconsistent and is one of the worst in the Big Ten. They score 72.7 points per game, have a field goal percentage of 44.2%, and a three-point percentage of 33.7%. They are also ranked at 64th in adjusted offense on KenPom, with a rating of 114.6.

Four Wildcats are averaging over double digits this season, and with Brooks Barnhizer injured and out for the rest of the year, Martinelli has emerged as the team’s best scorer, averaging 20.2 points per game. Jordan Clayton is the team’s best passer, averaging 2.5 assists per game. Injuries have also hurt the Northwestern offense, but they still average 14.5 assists per game.

Northwestern’s offense has been struggling recently. To start the conference tournament, Northwestern faces a tough matchup against the Golden Gophers, but Minnesota has the advantage on this side of the court.

Minnesota’s defense has been the opposite of its offense and has been a bright spot in comparison. They allow 69.6 points per game, 44% from the field, and 34.7% from behind the arc. The defense is 78th in KenPom, with a 101.9 rating.

Dawson Garcia is the best player the Gophers have in the frontcourt. He leads the team in rebounds with 7.4 per game. Then, Okudale is the block and steals leader, averaging 1.2 and 1.5 per game, respectively. This defense has playmakers next to Garcia and has been one of the better units in the Big Ten.

Minnesota’s defense can shut down Northwestern in this game, which will be a rock fight to start the tournament.

Final Northwestern-Minnesota Prediction & Pick

Injuries have wrecked Northwestern, while Minnesota is healthier. These two teams are very similar, with struggling offenses and good defenses. Minnesota is the team with the best unit on the floor, their defense, and they should not just cover, but win this opening tournament game.

Final Northwestern-Minnesota Prediction & Pick: Minnesota +2.5 (-114)

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