Notre Dame vs. Duke prediction, odds, pick for College Basketball
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ACC basketball rolls along with a Saturday noon game between Duke (13-2) and Notre Dame (7-8) in Durham. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Notre Dame-Duke prediction and pick.
No. 4-ranked Duke enters the game on a nine-game winning streak that has been active for over six weeks. The Blue Devils have begun ACC play undefeated, going 5-0 in the conference, including a dominant 76-47 win over Pittsburgh on Jan. 7.
Notre Dame began the 2024-2025 season at 4-0 but are just 3-8 since. They enter their toughest matchup of the young season on a three-game skid that most recently includes a 66-65 loss to NC State on Jan. 8.
Here are the Notre Dame-Duke College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Notre Dame-Duke Odds
Notre Dame: +18.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +1400
Duke: -18.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -4000
Over: 135.5 (-110)
Under: 135.5 (-110)
How to Watch Notre Dame vs. Duke
Time: 12 p.m. ET / 9 am. PT
TV: ESPN
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Notre Dame Will Cover The Spread/Win
Notre Dame has not been great in 2024-2025 but has been quietly impressive against the spread. The Fighting Irish are 2-1-1 ATS in the ACC and 5-2-2 ATS against power conference schools. Those include successful covers against Houston and Creighton, the two ranked opponents they previously faced.
Despite its poor record on paper, Notre Dame has been in better form lately. Junior forward Tae Davis leads them in scoring with 16.5 points per game and has eclipsed 20 in three of their past five games. He struggled in their two recent outings against UNC and NC State, both one-point losses. Had he been more effective, they likely would have had enough to win those games.
The Irish also got guard Markus Burton back in the game against UNC. Burton had missed the previous seven games with an injury.
Duke has the best overall defensive rating in the country, according to KenPom, making it unlikely Davis will figure it out against them. If there is a weakness in their defense, it would be their occasional struggles to defend behind the arc. They rank 158th in opponent three-pointers allowed and in the bottom half of the ACC in open threes allowed.
Duke tends to take its foot off the gas late in games, increasing the odds of a backdoor cover. The Irish have been sneaky effective as road underdogs, going 4-0 ATS in such scenarios. The public has loved to smash Duke lately, but the spread could be closer to 50-50 than many might initially believe.
Why Duke Will Cover The Spread/Win
Duke is just 10-5 ATS on the year. However, they are a slightly better 7-3 ATS against power schools. They have covered four of their last five games, including three as double-digit favorites.
The combination of Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel, and Tyrese Proctor always poses issues for opposing defenses, but it will particularly give Micah Shrewsberry fits. Notre Dame’s 2-3 zone defense has given many teams issues but does not match up well with Duke. The Blue Devils average 10.3 three-pointers per game, 16th in the country and the most in the ACC.
Freshman sensation Cooper Flagg figures to be a particularly thick thorn in Shrewsberry’s side. Flagg is hitting just 30.8 percent of his threes on the year but has connected at a 40 percent clip over the past month. At 6-foot-9, none of the edge defenders on Notre Dame’s zone defense can even come close to contesting his release.
Ceding a backdoor cover will be Duke’s biggest issue, but one that they have seemed to figure out. Of the five times they have failed to cover, three were due to spreads wider than 30 points, and the other two were straight-up losses to Kansas and Kentucky. In similar situations, Duke has covered wide spreads against George Mason, Georgia Tech, and Pittsburgh in their last five games.
Final Notre Dame-Duke Prediction & Pick
Few teams still play zone defense in Division I, but Notre Dame is one of them. Duke has yet to face a zone defense in 2024-2025, suggesting they could struggle against an unfamiliar scheme at first. Perhaps they pull away far enough late to cover the spread, but the Irish have been difficult for more talented teams to pull away from.
If Notre Dame is to have a chance in this game, they need it to be low-scoring. They simply cannot keep up with the Flagg-powered offense at its best. Likewise, Duke has hit the under in 75 percent of its games, holding seven straight opponents to 65 or fewer points.
A 135-point spread is uniquely low in modern basketball, but Notre Dame has only reached 70 points in four of their nine games against power schools. The last time they faced elite defenses, they managed just 54 points against Houston and 48 against Georgia. So far, Duke has been the best defensive team in the country.
Final Notre Dame-Duke Prediction & Pick: Under 135.5 (-110)
The post Notre Dame vs. Duke prediction, odds, pick for College Basketball appeared first on ClutchPoints.
