Penn State vs. Michigan State prediction, pick, college basketball odds

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Michigan State hosts Penn State for a highly anticipated matchup on Wednesday night. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Penn State-Michigan State prediction and pick.

The Penn State Nittany Lions are coming off a heart-breaker against Oregon in their last matchup, 82-81. Penn State led late but the Ducks stormed back down six to win the game. The Nittany Lions fell to 12-5 on the season and 2-4 in the conference. They played well during their non-conference slate but don’t contain more than one Quad 1 win. Penn State did defeat No. 8 Purdue in early December but turned around and lost to Rutgers. Their record may look good and they compete, but the Nittany Lions need to flip the switch to be able to beat the good teams, especially on the road.

Michigan State once again shows up in basketball. They are atop the Big Ten Conference with a 5-0 conference record alongside Michigan. At 14-2 overall, Michigan State has wins over North Carolina, Washington, Ohio State, and most recently defeated Northwestern on the road. Their two losses are to Kansas and Memphis. The Spartans are winners of nine straight games and are primed to win another at home in front of their crowd.

Here are the Penn State-Michigan State College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel 

College Basketball Odds: Penn State-Michigan State Odds

Penn State: +10.5 (-120)

Moneyline: +385

Michigan State: -10.5 (-102)

Moneyline: -520

Over: 155.5 (-110)

Under: 155.5 (-110)

How to Watch Penn State vs. Michigan State

Time: 7:30 ET/4:30 PT

TV: Big Ten Network

*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why Penn State Will Cover The Spread/Win

Penn State showed a lot of heart at home against Oregon but was unable to finish the game on top. Before that loss, Penn State lost by 39 to Illinois on the road. I don’t expect them to get blown out like that again on the road in this game, but they must figure out how to generate stops. Penn State allows 70.6 points per game but averages 84.4 points which is 21st in the nation. The Nittany Lions are also just 7-10 against the spread and 2-4 on the road.

Ace Baldwin Jr. scores 13.9 points per game which leads the team. He also is 4th in the nation in assists per game. The Nittany Lions need him to step on and lead the offense. However, he missed the game against Oregon after he injured his back against Illinois. The good news is it doesn’t seem serious and the team played well without him. His status seems to be questionable for Wednesday night as there is no word on him yet.

The team contains five others who average north of 10 points per game. Nick Kern Jr. scored 19 in the loss to Oregon and is second on the team at 12.7 per game. He shoots over 60% from the floor as well. Freddie Lilione V scored 21 in the loss which was huge for the sophomore. If the team can collectively score with pace then they will be able to cover this spread on the road against a great team.

Why Michigan State Will Cover The Spread/Win

The Spartans are hot and are in a position to win again on Wednesday. Michigan State earns its bread on defense and by spreading the love offensively. They allow just 66 points per game which is 47th in the nation and are 25th in blocks at 5.1 per game. Baskets do not come easy against them. What is interesting about the blocks is the team doesn’t contain anyone who averages at least one block per game. Rather, five of them average at least 0.6 per game with the big men being just under one per game.

On offense, the Spartans are 12th in the country in assists at 18.3. They have three players who average at least two assists per game and freshman guard Jeremy Fears Jr. leads the team with 6.4 per game, 15th in the country. He had his first career double-double in the win over Washington last week.

Jaden Akins leads the team in scoring. The senior averages 14.1 points, 3.8 assists, 1.6 assists, and 0.9 steals per game. He scored 14 in the win over Northwestern last time out and has scored in double digits in all but three games this year. His season high was 25 against Samford.

The Spartans contain six others who average north of seven points per contest. Jaxon Kohler is someone to watch in this game as the junior forward averages 7.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 0.8 blocks per game. Guard Jase Richardson shoots 59.8% from the field and 46.7% from deep. He doesn’t qualify due to games played, but he would be tied for 6th in the nation in three-point shooting percentage.

Final Penn State-Michigan State Prediction & Pick

Michigan State is 11-5 against the spread and a perfect 8-0 at home. Whether Baldwin Jr. plays or not, the Spartans are the better team and should win by double digits in front of their home crowd.

Final Penn State-Michigan State Prediction & Pick: Michigan State -10.5 (-102)

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