Penn State vs. Minnesota prediction, pick, college basketball odds

Yesterday at 04:43 PM

These are two of the worst teams in the Big Ten this season, and they desperately need a win to look more respectable. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a prediction and pick for Penn State-Minnesota.

Penn State is 14-13 and has quality wins against Purdue, Northwestern, Rutgers, and Nebraska. It also has losses against Clemson, Illinois, Oregon, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, and UCLA. Ace Baldwin Jr. is the biggest standout on a very balanced Penn State offense. Baldwin Jr. needs to put the Nittany Lions on his back in this game against Minnesota.

Minnesota is 14-12, with quality Big Ten wins coming against Michigan, Iowa, Oregon, and UCLA. They have also suffered significant losses against Wake Forest, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Maryland, and Michigan State. The Golden Gophers need Dawson Garcia to take control of this game and be Superman at home again to help get a critical Big Ten win.

Here are the Penn State-Minnesota College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel 

College Basketball Odds: Penn State-Minnesota Odds

Penn State: +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline: +104

Minnesota: -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline: -125

Over: 145.5 (-110)

Under: 145.5 (-110)

How to Watch Penn State vs. Minnesota

Time: 2:00 pm ET/11:00 am PT

TV: BTN

*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why Penn State Will Cover The Spread/Win

Penn State’s offense is highly balanced and has been in the top half of the Big Ten. They score 79.8 points per game, have a field goal percentage of 47.8%, and have a three-point percentage of 33.6%. They are a top-60 offense on KenPom, with a 115.1 offensive rating.

The balance for this offense is a giant X-factor, with five different Nittany Lions averaging over double digits. Ace Baldwin Jr. is the prominent scoring leader, averaging 13.9 points per game, and he is the assist leader, averaging 7.2 assists per game. Penn State is also averaging 16 assists per game as a team, 59th in the country.

This offense has too much balance for Minnesota to contain consistently. Penn State should score easily in this game thanks to its balance, and it can build on its performance from the last game when it scored 89 points against Nebraska.

Minnesota’s offense has been awful and is undoubtedly the worst offense in the Big Ten. They score 68.8 points per game, have a 44.8% field goal percentage, and a 32.8% three-point shooting percentage. They also have the 95th-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency rating on KenPom with a 112 rating.

Only three Golden Gophers are averaging over double digits in scoring, and Garcia has emerged as the most consistent scorer on the team, averaging 19.7 points per game. Garcia is one of the best scorers in the entire country overall.

The Golden Gophers have been solid regarding ball movement. They are averaging 15.5 assists per game and are 76th in college basketball. Lu’Cye Patterson and Femi Odukale are tied for the team lead in assists, with 3.5 per game between them.

This offense relies so much on Garcia, but they need some help outside of that. Even with Penn State struggling, he can’t be the only reliable piece on offense.

Why Minnesota Will Cover The Spread/Win

Penn State’s defense has been almost the complete opposite of its offense. It allows 73.5 points per game, 45.8% from the field, and 35.2% from behind the arc. It is also 96th in defensive efficiency with a 103.5 rating.

The rebounding has been suspect. Yanic Konan Niederhauser is the rebounding leader, averaging 6.1 per game. He is also the team leader in blocks, averaging 2.1 per game.

They have been solid on the perimeter and with their on-ball defense, with four different Nittany Lions averaging at least one steal. Baldwin Jr. is the team leader in steals, averaging 2.3 per game. The Nittany Lions have a defense that can find some success against Minnesota because, outside of Garcia, they don’t have anyone to trust.

Minnesota’s defense has been the opposite of its offense and has been a bright spot in comparison. They allow 69.3 points per game, 43.9% from the field, and 35.6% from behind the arc. The defense is 81st in KenPom, with a 102.6 rating.

Dawson Garcia is the best player the Gophers have in the frontcourt. He leads the team in rebounds with 7.4 per game and is second in blocks behind both Parker Fox and Odukale, who are tied for the team lead, averaging 1.2 blocks per game. Odukale is also the steals leader, averaging 1.5 per game.

Minnesota has the defense to slow down the Nittany Lions offense, but with this game being on the road, it gets much harder to do that consistently, especially with all the ways the Nittany Lions can beat you.

Final Penn State-Minnesota Prediction & Pick

This game comes down to trust. Minnesota has little to trust outside of Garcia and an okay-at-best defense. Penn State is coming off a game where they scored 89 points and have many different weapons on offense to beat the Golden Gophers. Expect Penn State to win and cover close on the road against Minnesota.

Final Penn State-Minnesota Prediction & Pick: Penn State +1.5 (-110)

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