Pepperdine vs Saint Mary's prediction, odds pick for WCC Tournament

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It’s time to continue our WCC Tournament odds series with a Pepperdine Saint Mary’s prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Pepperdine Saint Mary’s.

What an amazing story we have in Las Vegas. An underdog is at the blackjack table, hitting on 17 and winning. The Pepperdine Waves are truly riding that wave into the WCC Tournament semifinals.

We wrote this in our preview of the Pepperdine-Santa Clara WCC quarterfinal, which was played on Sunday evening:

“The WCC Tournament has its Cinderella story. Pepperdine is the No. 9 seed at this tournament. The Waves had to play a first-round game on Friday. They trailed No. 8 seed Portland by a double-figure margin midway through the second half of Friday’s contest. They roared down the stretch with an offensive explosion to win that game by 13, 86-73. Then the Waves came back to the court in Las Vegas for the WCC Tournament on Saturday night and took out the No. 5 seed, Oregon State. Pepperdine’s offense has found new life at the WCC Tournament, scoring over 75 points in two games while the defense has done just enough to make it stand up.”

That basic outline and pattern were upheld one more time on Sunday. Pepperdine scored north of 75 points once again — for the third straight night — and held the opponent at bay instead of imploding on defense. The final score: Pepperdine 78, Santa Clara 76. The Waves were the better team down the stretch. They trailed 45-40 early in the second half but steadily worked their way ahead, 66-58. Santa Clara got closer, trimming the lead to 71-68 with under four minutes left, but Pepperdine was up to the task, getting defensive stops down the stretch and not allowing its situation to snowball. The Waves are 13-21, but they are two wins from the NCAA Tournament in a magic carpet ride which isn’t over.

Here are the Pepperdine-Saint Mary’s WCC Tournament Odds, courtesy of FanDuel 

WCC Tournament Odds: Pepperdine-Saint Mary’s Odds

Pepperdine: +19.5 (-102)

Moneyline: +1600

Saint Mary’s: -19.5 (-120)

Moneyline: -4500

Over: 135.5 (-110)

Under: 135.5 (-110)

How to Watch Pepperdine vs Saint Mary’s

Time: 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT

TV: ESPN

*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why Pepperdine Will Cover The Spread/Win

Pepperdine is a hot team authoring a special March story in its conference tournament. We have seen this before — not Pepperdine specifically, but the more general story of a bad team finding something that works and catching fire in a tournament setting. Coaches and players are rededicating themselves to the intensity of competition. They knew that in the middle of February, each individual game did not matter a whole lot, and that the season boiled down to the one week in Vegas for the WCC Tournament. The Waves had no reason to invest too much of their energy or emotion in midseason games once it became clear they would finish in the lower half of the conference. Mentally and physically, they saved up for the tournament and basically started over, from ground zero. Now this team believes it can do anything. The fact that Pepperdine came from behind to beat Santa Clara on Sunday shows that the team can play through fatigue and difficulty. It would have been normal for Pepperdine to run out of gas in the third game in three days, but the Waves actually got stronger — not weaker — in the final 10 minutes versus Santa Clara. That shows this run still has some fuel in the tank. With the spread being this huge, Pepperdine can easily cover.

Why Saint Mary’s Will Cover The Spread/Win

Pepperdine will be playing a fourth game in four straight days, no breaks. Saint Mary’s had a double bye into this WCC Tournament semifinal game and is supremely fresh after having more than a full week of rest. The No. 9 seed, eight games under .500, is tired. The No. 1 seed, which went 17-1 in the WCC regular season, is fresh. Does anything more need to be said?

Final Pepperdine-Saint Mary’s Prediction & Pick

In the Pepperdine-Santa Clara quarterfinal, we told you to wait a little bit and see if the line might move in game. The initial spread was way too big for that game (Santa Clara -15.5), and that analysis held up well. We think the same thought process is merited here. Pepperdine might start strong, but the legs are likely to go in the second half. Maybe make a play late in the first half or at halftime.

Final Pepperdine-Saint Mary’s Prediction & Pick: Pepperdine +19.5

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