Portland vs Saint Mary's prediction, pick, college basketball odds
02/19/2025 09:07 AM
It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Portland Saint Mary’s prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Portland Saint Mary’s.
The Saint Mary’s Gaels are almost there. They lead Gonzaga by two games in the West Coast Conference with four regular-season conference games left on the schedule. Let’s say SMC loses at Gonzaga this Saturday, February 22. As long as the Gaels win their other three conference games, including this one against Portland, they still win the league, and they still win it outright. Next week, SMC visits Loyola Marymount and hosts Oregon State. The Gaels beat both of those teams by 14 points or more in the first meetings against those opponents this season. Saint Mary’s is still the clear-cut favorite to win the WCC outright. It would take a huge slip by the Gaels just to fall into a tie and a split championship with Gonzaga. There is virtually no chance — it’s very slim — that Saint Mary’s won’t at least walk away with a shared WCC title. It has been a solid, steady, consistent journey for a program which continues to hit the mark under coach Randy Bennett.
Here are the Portland-Saint Mary’s College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Portland-Saint Mary’s Odds
Portland: +25.5 (-104)
Moneyline: +3000
Saint Mary’s: -25.5 (-118)
Moneyline: -10000
Over: 138.5 (-115)
Under: 138.5 (-105)
How to Watch Portland vs Saint Mary’s
Time: 10 p.m. ET/7 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN Plus
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Portland Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Saint Mary’s Gaels are the best team in the WCC, but even then, 25.5 points? Saint Mary’s plays with a distinctly slow pace. The Gaels play methodical, deliberate basketball. They have to be really efficient to win a game by 26 points or more, which is what they would need to do to cover the spread here. Sometimes, Saint Mary’s is able to establish that level of efficiency, but not always. The Gaels are in late February, knowing they have the big game at Gonzaga next on Saturday. Saint Mary’s might look ahead to that game and not play with ultimate focus for this game. It’s human nature. It’s a long season, and college athletes are bound to have one or two nights when they just don’t focus as much or as intensely as they do on most of the other nights of the campaign. This is a natural look-ahead spot for SMC, and with a spread this large, just a six-minute lapse — in which Portland ties or slightly outscores Saint Mary’s — would probably be enough for the Pilots to keep the margin under 26 and cover.
Why Saint Mary’s Will Cover The Spread/Win
We know SMC might look ahead to Gonzaga, but this team has been thumping inferior opponents for much of the season. Saint Mary’s beat Washington State by 21 at home, covering the spread. It beat San Francisco by 20 at home, covering the spread. It beat Loyola Marymount by 25 at home, covering the spread. The idea that Saint Mary’s simply won’t cover spreads at home just because of its playing style is a claim which doesn’t really hold up under scrutiny. Portland is not a very good team, Saint Mary’s is. We don’t have to twist ourselves into a pretzel and make dubious arguments.
Final Portland-Saint Mary’s Prediction & Pick
We know Saint Mary’s is the superior team, but SMC is bound to look ahead to that Gonzaga showdown on February 22. With a spread this huge, we’re not taking Saint Mary’s but we’re also not going to entrust our money to a bad team. This is a situation where you might want to wait five to 10 minutes at the start of the game and see which way things are going. Maybe Portland starts fast and you can get SMC minus-18.5 live. Maybe SMC starts quickly and you can get Portland plus-33.5 live. Something to consider.
Final Portland-Saint Mary’s Prediction & Pick: Portland +25.5
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