Providence vs. Xavier prediction, pick, college basketball odds
03/07/2025 06:59 PM
These teams are heading in opposite directions, with Providence spiraling, while Xavier seems to have played safely into the NCAA Tournament. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Providence-Xavier prediction and pick.
Providence has disappointed and is 12-18 this season, with notable wins against BYU, Georgetown, and Villanova. They have significant losses to Oklahoma, Indiana, St. John’s twice, Marquette twice, UConn twice, Creighton twice, Villanova, and Xavier. Jayden Pierre and Bensley Joseph are the biggest keys for the Friars in this matchup against Xavier to end the season on a high note.
Xavier is 20-10 this season, with notable wins against Wake Forest, Villanova, UConn, Georgetown, and Creighton. They also have notable losses against Michigan, Cincinnati, UConn, Marquette, Georgetown, St. John’s twice, Creighton, and Villanova. Zach Freemantle and Ryan Conwell must be excellent for the Musketeers to make a last-second statement before the NCAA Tournament.
Here are the Providence-Xavier College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Providence-Xavier Odds
Providence: +10.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +430
Xavier: -10.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -600
Over: 147.5 (-105)
Under: 147.5 (-115)
How to Watch Providence vs. Xavier
Time: 4:00 pm ET/1:00 pm PT
TV: FS1
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Providence Will Cover The Spread/Win
Providence’s offense has been one of the worst in the Big East this season. They score 71.5 points per game, have a 44.2% field goal percentage, and a 35.7% three-point shooting percentage. They are 83rd in KenPom in adjusted offense with a rating of 112.9.
Only two Friars are averaging over double digits in scoring this season, with Pierre leading the team with 12.6 points per game and Joseph just behind him at 12.5 points per game. Joseph is also the assists leader, averaging 3.3 per game, and second to him is Pierre with 3.1 per game. The team has struggled to move the ball well all season, only averaging 12.7 assists per game.
Providence’s defense has struggled almost as much as its offense this season. They allow 72.3 points per game, 43.1% from the field, and 33.5% from behind the arc. This defense is also very low on KenPom, ranking at 142nd, with a 105.8 rating.
This frontcourt has been a giant weakness for the Friars. Oswin Erhunmwunse leads the team in rebounds and blocks, averaging 5.4 and 1.6 per game, respectively. The perimeter defense has also struggled, and is arguably worse than their paint defense. Only one player averages over one steal, and Joseph has 1.2 per game.
The Friars lost their best player, Bryce Hopkins, to an injury early in the season, and their offense and defense have gone downhill since then. This defense is in for a tough matchup against the Xavier offense, especially on the road.
Why Xavier Will Cover The Spread/Win
Xavier’s offense has been one of the better offenses in the Big East this season. They score 77.8 points per game, have a field goal percentage of 46.5%, and a three-point percentage of 38.6%. They are also top-60 in KenPom with an adjusted offensive rating of 115.4.
Three different Musketeers are averaging over double digits in scoring this season. Freemantle is the best scorer on the team, averaging 17.1 points per game. Conwell is the second-best scorer, just behind Freemantle, averaging 16 points per game. They move the ball very well, averaging 16.8 assists per game, and the assists leader is Dayvion McKnight.
This offense has been great, and they can score with almost anyone in college basketball this year. Conwell and Freemantle make a great inside-out duo and carry this team’s offense. They should score all over the Friars in this game, especially at home.
Xavier’s defense has been inconsistent and has done some good and bad things this season. They allow 70.4 points per game, 44.1% from the field and 32.8% from behind the arc. This defense is also 40th in adjusted defense in KenPom, with a 98.2 rating.
This frontcourt has been good but lacks depth outside of Freemantle. He leads the team in rebounding and blocks with 7.1 and 0.9 per game, respectively. This perimeter defense has been much better and is a strength on their defense. Five players are averaging at least one steal with Dailyn Swan leading the team, averaging 1.6 per game.
This defense can completely shut down an awful Providence team at home in Xavier. The Friars are struggling; this is a bad matchup against this Providence offense.
Final Providence-Xavier Prediction & Pick
Xavier has the talent to blow out Providence at home. They should shut down this team at home and they should score easily on offense. Expect Xavier to win, blow out Providence, and inch closer to the NCAA Tournament and off the bubble.
Final Providence-Xavier Prediction & Pick: Xavier -10.5 (-110)
The post Providence vs. Xavier prediction, pick, college basketball odds appeared first on ClutchPoints.
