Ranking the Final Four teams in 2025 NCAA Tournament
03/31/2025 02:27 PM
March hasn’t exactly been full of madness this year, as a very chalky bracket through the first two weekends has left the NCAA Tournament in a spot it has been in only once before. All four No. 1 seeds have navigated their respective regions, and now they will battle it out for the national title at the Final Four in San Antonio.
This marks the second tournament ever that all four top seeds have reached the final weekend, along with the 2008 edition of March Madness when Kansas knocked off Memphis in a classic title game. UCLA and North Carolina also reached the Final Four that year (also in San Antonio, ironically).
Of course, some had it easier than others. Auburn had to navigate second-half deficits against both Creighton and Michigan before soundly dominating Michigan State in the Elite Eight. Florida needed to pull a rabbit out of its hat twice — once against UConn in the Round of 32 and once against Texas Tech in the Elite Eight — to stay alive.
On the other hand, Duke absolutely trounced just about everyone in its way. Arizona was able to make a late run and keep Jon Scheyer and company on their toes in the final minutes, but the outcome never felt in doubt.
Then, there is Kelvin Sampson and Houston, who navigated one of the toughest roads ever to get to a Final Four. The gritty Cougars survived a late collapse against No. 8 seed Gonzaga, who ranked No. 8 overall in KenPom efficiency coming into the tournament. Houston then had to grind out a win against fourth-seed Purdue in what was essentially a true road game in Indianapolis, eventually winning in the final second thanks to one of the best inbounds plays in March Madness history.
Houston didn’t have any drama in Sunday’s Elite Eight, dominating No. 2 seed Tennessee right from the opening tip to get to the Final Four.
Now, the top four teams in the country are all still kicking heading to San Antonio, but who is the favorite to cut down the nets? Here’s a ranking of the four teams still alive.
1. Duke
Duke has been the most talented team in the country all season long, no matter what you think of the ACC. A few crunch-time failures early in the season don’t change that, and the Blue Devils are the rightful favorite heading into the Final Four.
Duke will have the best player on the floor every time it takes the court in Cooper Flagg. It has size up and down the lineup and will be the biggest team on the court against everyone left, even Florida’s deep crop of interior forces in a hypothetical final. The Blue Devils have an interior force in Khaman Maluach who can finish off possessions with easy buckets offensively and completely shut off the paint on the other end.
Not to mention the shooting that Duke has surrounded its stars with. Kon Knueppel has really come into his own offensively this season. He is an elite shooter and has emerged as a reliable ball handler and facilitator. Tyrese Proctor has been absolutely losing his mind in this NCAA Tournament from the outside. Even a player like Sion James has been able to step in and make big shots from deep.
In addition to all of the skills on paper, Duke has more than backed it up with the eye test during this NCAA Tournament. Scheyer and company crushed a much smaller Baylor team in the Round of 32 with superior size. Arizona got a great showing from Caleb Love and it didn’t matter against a Duke offense that made shot after shot and found quality possession after quality possession. Alabama’s fast-paced attack wasn’t nearly enough against Duke’s perimeter size and rim protection.
There are questions about Duke, namely what happens if it gets stuck in a close game. But there’s no doubt that this is the team to beat in San Antonio.
2. Houston
It’s very, very close between Houston, Florida and Auburn for the final three spots, but the reliability of the Cougars and their identity earns them the No. 2 spot on the list. Houston has the No. 1-ranked defense in the country according to KenPom, and it showed off that mettle throughout this tournament run.
Houston shut down an elite Gonzaga offense, the No. 6 attack in the country on KenPom, for a half before the Bulldogs picked up the pace and got hot in the second half. Sampson and company threw trap after trap at Purdue stars Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn, holding them to a combined seven field goals and 21 points. On Sunday, they suffocated a very good Tennessee attack to the tune of 15 first-half points in a dominant 69-50 victory.
Houston’s defense should keep it in just about any game. After all, the Cougars lost just one game in regulation this season, and that was all the way back on Nov. 9 in the second game of the season. The difference with this Houston squad is its ability to score and shoot the 3-ball.
Emmanuel Sharp, LJ Cryer and Milos Uzan give Houston a trio of guards who can all create their own shot and light it up from distance at any moment. In the Sweet 16 against Purdue, Uzan carried the offense with six 3-pointers and 22 points to help overcome off nights from both Cryer and Sharp. Against Tennessee in the Elite Eight, Sharp got hot in the second half to put out any hope of a Volunteers comeback.
If all else fails, J’Wan Roberts has become a fallback option as a post-up threat, and the Cougars will crash the offensive boards and get plenty of extra possessions. In a physical, grind-it-out game, nobody does it better than Kelvin Sampson and this Houston squad.
3. Florida
Coming into the tournament, Florida would have been a clear No. 2 on the list. However, a couple of underwhelming performances from the Gators dropped them a spot on the list heading into the Final Four.
We know that in a close game, nobody does it better than Walter Clayton Jr. and this Florida group. Clayton has shown, both against UConn and Texas Tech, that he will come up with the goods when Florida needs him to at the end of games. He has the ability to take over any game with his shotmaking, and that makes Todd Golden’s squad very dangerous in any game.
Florida’s size is also very intriguing. The four-man big rotation of Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu and Micah Handlogten makes the Gators a unique matchup for anybody on the inside. Alijah Martin has also been excellent on the wing in this tournament, and Will Richard could be due for a breakout showing after a quiet few weeks.
The concern with Florida is this: what happens if a team can make a game muddy and sloppy? That likely won’t happen against Auburn, but a hypothetical title game against Houston would be far outside of the Gators’ comfort zone. While this hasn’t been a problem all year, Golden’s squad struggled with turnovers and overall physicality at times against both UConn and Texas Tech.
4. Auburn
Johni Broome’s lingering elbow injury is the main reason that Auburn finds itself in the fourth spot here, but the late-season form is also a slight concern for Bruce Pearl and company.
Auburn lost three of its last four games coming into the tournament, a mark that no national champion has ever carried into the Big Dance. Those three losses were all against high quality teams, but some of that sloppiness has shown up in the first three rounds as well.
Auburn has gotten by in the second halves of the Creighton and Michigan games thanks to some stellar shotmaking, something that has been a theme for it this season. And believe me, there may not have been a more exciting watch in this tournament than Tahaad Pettiford in the second half of the Sweet 16. But Auburn will need more than just hot streaks to get two more wins.
Despite that, Bruce Pearl and his group showed in the Elite Eight why they have been so good all season long. Dylan Cardwell was active on the glass and a paint presence on both ends. The Auburn guards are extremely dynamic and are all threats to score 20 on any given night. Broome showed why he is a National Player of the Year candidate with another dominant showing. If he is healthy and can do that two more times, this Auburn team can absolutely cut down the nets.
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