Re-Ranking the 2025 NCAA Tournament's Sweet Sixteen: A Sparty Surprise at the Top

03/24/2025 12:39 PM

The opening two rounds of the 2025 NCAA Tournament have come and gone, and now as we fast approach the second weekend of the Big Dance, only 16 teams remain out of a tournament field that once consisted of 68 schools that dreamed of cutting down the nets in San Antonio, Texas on Monday April 7th. So now it’s time to look at how the Sweet Sixteen stacks up, and there’s no better way to do that than a 1-16 re-ranking of all championship contenders left standing.

Tier 5 – No Championship Precedent 

So heading into the month of March this year, I devised a loose set of guidelines which would ideally help to establish what teams could actually win the NCAA Tournament in a given year. Now by no means am I providing groundbreaking analysis here, nor should it come as too big of a shock to hear that each of the last 20 NCAA Tournament winners have met the following three criteria:

I: Single-digit losses heading into the NCAA Tournament

II: Played in a conference that received multiple NCAA Tournament bids

III: Ranked in the top ten in the AP Poll at some point during the regular season

With that being the case, there are eight teams remaining in the NCAA Tournament field that, for all intents and purposes, have already been eliminated from title contention. Five of those teams make up Tier 5 in this exercise:

16. Ole Miss Rebels (6-seed, South Region – 10+ losses, never ranked in Top Ten) – The Rebels have benefitted from a soft draw that included a North Carolina Tar Heels team that probably shouldn’t have been in the NCAA Tournament field to begin with, and an Iowa State Cyclones squad that was playing without second-leading scorer Keshon Gilbert.

If you’re making a case for the Rebels, it would likely go something like this… Head coach Chris Beard has National Championship Game experience and Ole Miss already has wins over five teams — Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and BYU — this year. They have experienced guards and decent depth and they dominate the turnover battle, ranking in the top 20 in both steals and fewest turnovers. There’s a formula here, just no historical precedent.

15. Arizona Wildcats (4-seed, East Region – 10+ losses) – I’ve been burned by the Arizona Wildcats in the NCAA Tournament, I just can’t pretend I have a good feel for what the hell is going to happen the rest of the way for Arizona. I’ve already lost money on them twice this tournament, betting on both Akron and Oregon to win outright in the opening two rounds. But in years past, I’ve twice watched the Wildcats get bounced in the opening round of the tournament when I picked them to make the Final Four.

14. Purdue Boilermakers (4-seed, Midwest Region – 10+ losses) – We’re a Purdue win over Houston in the Sweet Sixteen away from Bill Simmons and the rest of the Ewing Theory Committee from having to take a long hard look at the candidacy of the Zach Edey-less Boilermakers.

13. Arkansas Razorbacks (10-seed, West Region – 10+ losses, never ranked in Top Ten)
12. Kentucky Wildcats (3-seed, Midwest Region – 10+ losses) – While it’s still even a remote possibility, can we just take a quick second to think about how bananas it would be if on April 7th the final two teams left standing were John Calipari and the Arkansas Razorbacks going up against Calipari’s old team, the Kentucky Wildcats, just two weeks after Cal had already vanquished a pair of his greatest rivals, Bill Self and Rick Pitino? I mean, talk about Madness.

Tier 4 – Most Likely Precedent Breakers 

11. Maryland Terrapins (4-seed, West Region – Never ranked in Top Ten)
10. BYU Cougars (6-seed, East Region – Never ranked in Top Ten)
9. Michigan Wolverines (5-seed, South Region – Never ranked in Top Ten) – For what it’s worth, after careful evaluation, the Never ranked in the Top Ten caveat is probably the weakest point of this three-headed championship criteria, as it’s the only piece that kept the 2002-03 Syracuse Orange from fitting this description. Before the Carmelo Anthony-led Orange won the title, the criteria works each year dating back to 1988.

Is it possible that the AP voters just missed the boat on Maryland, BYU and Michigan — all unranked at the beginning of the season — in the midst of a season where six different teams from the SEC made appearances in the top ten and 14 cracked the top 25 at some point in the season? I’d say that’s very possible, especially since neither Maryland or BYU even appeared in the top 25 until February.

As for who is most likely to break this 20 year historical precedent, go ahead and take your pick. Maryland was the best team for most of the season and Derik Queen is probably the best player on any of these three rosters. BYU is the hottest team right now. But I like Michigan the most, not only because of their Final Four experienced head coach and pair of seven-footers, but because the Wolverines have made a habit of winning tight games all year long, and that’s generally a great indicator of tournament success.

Tier 3 – Fringe Title Contenders 

8. Tennessee Volunteers (2-seed, Midwest Region) – This is a really, really solid Tennessee team that is battle-tested and looks like they’re built to compete in the month of March, but there are five words that keep me from taking the Vols too seriously over the next two weeks… Rick Barnes in the tournament.

7. Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-seed, West Region) – Grant McCasland’s squad may be the sleeping giant in this whittled down field of 16, especially if they get Chance McMillian back for their regional semifinal matchup against the Arkansas Razorbacks. JT Toppin and Darrion Williams are one of the best tandems remaining in the tournament, and Elijah Hawkins is a top-tier table setter. And hey, if Kerwin Walton hits eight treys in a game again as he did in the 1st Round, the Red Raiders will be an extremely tough out, and a real threat to bring a National Title to Lubbock.

6. Alabama Crimson Tide (2-seed, East Region) – So I was in the building for Alabama’s 1st and 2nd Round games against Robert Morris and Saint Mary’s, and even though both the Colonials and the Gaels gave the Tide a little more than they were expecting, I came away from the opening weekend of the tournament feeling better about Alabama’s title chances than I did going in, and mind you, I had the Tide advancing to the Elite Eight before the tournament began.

On the court, there’s plenty to like. There are no weak links in Nate Oats’ rotation, no player whose minutes feel troublesome. They’ve got one of the best lead guards in the country in Mark Sears, solid size, and they can shoot the lights out. But what impressed me even more was how together this team appears to be. Every guy on the bench is engaged. Every huddle, every player is locked in. After the game, the entire team crashed a post-game interview. The vibes, as the kids say, are immaculate.

Tier 2 – The Championship Favorites 

5. Houston Cougars (1-seed, Midwest Region) – Hey, speaking of immaculate vibes, is there a bigger sentimental favorite this year than the Houston Cougars? On the court, this team embodies so much of what makes college basketball great, and off the court, on Saturday night, head coach Kelvin Sampson continues to prove why he’s one of the most beloved and respected coaches in the sport. After Sampson consoled Gonzaga’s Khalif Battle after the Cougars hung on to defeat the Bulldogs, it seems like the entire college basketball world might be pulling for Houston.

4. Auburn Tigers (1-seed, South Region) – Out of respect to their seed, their resume, their National Player of the Year candidate and a head coach I absolutely love, Auburn cracks the top four in these re-rankings. But with that said, I don’t think Bruce Pearl’s squad is even getting by Michigan this Friday night.

3. Florida Gators (1-seed, West Region) – Is it possible that a visit to the Big East grinder courtesy of the UConn Huskies may have been the wake up call the Florida Gators needed? For about 38 minutes, the Huskies appeared to be the better team, or at least the team more equipped to win in the month of March. But then Walter Clayton Jr. threw on his Superman cape, shattered UConn’s three-peat dreams and proved why he was named a consensus All-American.

Clayton isn’t a one-man show, though. Alijah Martin had 18 points against the Huskies and has Final Four experience. Will Richard scored 15 points on Sunday afternoon and was a 13 point per game scorer during the regular season. Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh give the Gators 20 points and 14 rebounds per game combined, and helped Florida finish 4th in total offensive rebounds this season. But still, there’s a world where Florida was the only 1-seed that didn’t make it out of the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

2. Duke Blue Devils (1-seed, East Region) – This may be the most talented and most impressive Duke team since the early 2000’s, and yes, I’m already giving them the edge over the title teams of 2010 and 2015. Don’t even get me started on the 2025 Duke vs. 2019 Duke debate, and Cooper Flagg already has the debate with Zion Williamson wrapped up. The smart money pick the rest of the way is Duke, but if you’ve been reading along over the last week, you know that I predicted Duke’s run would end just one win shy of the National Championship, and I’m sticking with it.

Tier 1 – The Championship Pick 

1. Michigan State Spartans (2-seed, South Region) – I said all that I needed to say about the Spartans less than one week ago, when I made them my official pick to win the 2025 NCAA Tournament. After watching Tom Izzo’s squad in person for two consecutive rounds over the weekend, I feel just as good about it. Yes, Bryant gave Sparty a hell of a challenge for 25 minutes in Round 1, and yes, New Mexico put up an even better fight on Sunday night. But Michigan State’s run to a National Title was never going to be defined by six consecutive blowout wins.

It was always going to be defined by the symbolic act of going to war on hardwood, and with a ten man rotation and a maniacal head coach who has been preparing this team for battle for months on end, it doesn’t matter how tight these games are… Sparty will keep finding way to survive and advance.

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