Stanford vs. SMU prediction, pick, college basketball odds

01/31/2025 06:40 PM

These two teams have been solid this season. Each team can get a giant win and one more step closer to the NCAA Tournament. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Stanford-SMU prediction and pick.

Stanford is 15-6 this season but has only quality wins against North Carolina and Florida State. Their losses are not as bad outside of Cal Poly, and then they have quality losses against Grand Canyon, Oregon, Clemson, Pitt, and Wake Forest. The Cardinals have the tools to be a solid team this season, thanks to Maxime Reynaud. A win here would go a long way toward an NCAA Tournament appearance.

SMU is 16-5 after starting the season with quality wins against Washington State, LSU, NC State, and Virginia twice. This team goes as Boopie Miller goes on offense in the backcourt. SMU is a wildcard in the ACC, and they need to keep winning to get into the NCAA Tournament. This would be the perfect win for SMU to stay afloat in the ACC and pad their resume.

Here are the Stanford-SMU College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel 

College Basketball Odds: Stanford-SMU Odds

Stanford: +6.5 (-115)

Moneyline: +210

SMU: -6.5 (-105)

Moneyline: -260

Over: 149.5 (-106)

Under: 149.5 (-114)

How to Watch Stanford vs. SMU

Time: 6:00 pm ET/3:00 pm PT

TV: ACC Network

*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why Stanford Will Cover The Spread/Win

SMU’s defense has been inconsistent at best this season. They allow 71.8 points per game, 40.5% from the field, and 33.6% from behind the arc.

The Mustangs’ frontcourt on the glass has been a solid unit. Matt Cross leads the team in rebounding with 8.4 per game, and Samet Yigitoglu is the leader in blocks with 1.1 per game.

Finally, their on-ball defense has been solid. Three players average at least one steal, and the team leader is B.J. Edwards, who averages 2.3 per game. SMU’s defense is nothing special, and they are at a disadvantage in this game against Stanford.

Why SMU Will Cover The Spread/Win

Stanford’s offense has been around average this season. They score 76.6 points per game, have a field goal percentage of 44.8%, and a three-point percentage of 34.4%. Then, they are 53rd in KenPom in adjusted offense with a rating of 115. Three different Cardinal players average over double digits, and Reynaud is the leading scorer, averaging 20.5 points per game.

The Cardinal have been solid at best in passing the ball because they average 14.6 assists per game. Jaylen Blakes is the best passer and leads the team in assists with five per game. This Stanford offense should have no issues against an SMU defense that has not been all that good this season. The Cardinal and Reynaud have the advantage on this side of the court.

Stanford’s defense has also been in the middle of the ACC. They allow 69.8 points per game, 44.4% from the field, and 31.7% from behind the arc. With a 103.8 rating on KenPom, they are the 116th-ranked defense.

The Cardinals’ frontcourt lacks depth, but Reynaud has dominated. He leads the team with 11.9 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game.

Regarding on-ball defense, Blakes is the team leader, leading the team with 1.9 steals per game. This defense has its work cut out because SMU is statistically the best offense in the ACC. SMU has a big advantage on this side of the court and will have an advantage against most teams in the ACC.

SMU’s offense is statistically the highest-scoring in the ACC. It scores 82.8 points per game, has a 47.8% field goal percentage, and shoots 37.9% three-pointers. On KenPom, it is 41st in adjusted offensive efficiency with a 116.4 rating. This offense is extremely balanced.

Five Mustangs average over double digits in scoring, and Boopie Miller leads the team in scoring with 13.8 points per game. To prove how balanced the Mustangs are, they average 16.2 assists per game, and Miller is the team leader with 5.7 per game. This offense has the balance to cut through and score at will against the Cardinal in this matchup, especially at home in Dallas.

Final Stanford-SMU Prediction & Pick

SMU has the best unit in this game, and they are at home. The SMU offense should score easily against the Cardinal at home, but I don’t think Stanford can keep up. Miller is the engine behind how much balance SMU has. Reynaud is unguardable, but he can’t do it himself. SMU wins and covers at home in this game.

Final Stanford-SMU Prediction & Pick: SMU -6.5 (-105)

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