Texas vs. Texas A&M prediction, odds, pick for SEC Tournament

Yesterday at 07:49 PM

Texas has had a shaky end to the season, while Texas A&M finished the year with two big wins after a losing streak. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Texas-Texas A&M prediction and pick.

Texas is 18-14, with quality wins against Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt. Then, they have losses against UConn, Texas A&M, Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss, Arkansas twice, Vanderbilt, and Alabama. Tre Johnson needs to continue his run as a star for the Longhorns and carry them to a win over their arch-rival to get off the bubble.

Texas A&M is 22-9 but has won two straight entering this game. They have quality wins against Creighton, Texas Tech, Purdue, Texas, Oklahoma twice, Ole Miss, Missouri, and Auburn. They also have significant losses to Oregon, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Florida. Wade Taylor IV has a chance to keep improving their resume toward a higher seed in the tournament.

Here are the Texas-Texas A&M College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel 

SEC Tournament Odds: Texas-Texas A&M Odds

Texas: +5.5 (-102)

Moneyline: +205

Texas A&M: -5.5 (-120)

Moneyline: -255

Over: 139.5 (-110)

Under: 139.5 (-110)

How to Watch Texas vs. Texas A&M

Time: 3:30 pm ET/12:30 pm PT

TV: SEC Network

*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why Texas Will Cover The Spread/Win

Texas’s offense has been inconsistent but also solid as a unit. They score 78.1 points per game, have a field goal percentage of 46.3%, and a three-point percentage of 36.3%. They also have a top-50 adjusted offensive efficiency rating on KenPom of 115.9.

Four different Longhorns average over double digits in scoring, and their best player is Johnson, who averages 20.2 points per game. They must also work on their ball movement since they only average 13.2 assists per game. Julian Larry is the assist leader for Texas, averaging 3.3 per game.

This offense has the potential to be great and they showed flashes in their first SEC Tournament game against Vanderbilt. They need to have a similar showing against a great Texas A&M defense. This matchup is going to decide the game between these two rivals.

Texas A&M’s offense has talent, but they have had issues on this side of the court all season. They score 73.8 points per game, have a 41.9% field goal percentage, and a 30.7% three-point shooting percentage. Advanced metrics like this offense are more important than the standard stats because they have jumped to 42nd and have a 116.6 rating on KenPom.

This offense only has two consistent scorers: Zhuric Phelps and Taylor IV. Taylor IV leads the Aggies in scoring with 15.2 points per game, while Phelps averages 14.3 points. Taylor IV also leads the team in assists with 4.3 per game, but as a team, the Aggies struggle to move the ball fluently and only average 12 assists per game.

The Aggies’ roster is littered with talent, and they play extremely hard. However, they need consistency in offense. This offense offers a unique challenge for the Aggies, and it is instantly the X-factor in this game.

Why Texas A&M Will Cover The Spread/Win

Texas’s defense has been in the middle of the SEC this season. They allow 71.4 points per game, 42.5% from the field, and 33.8% from behind the arc. On KenPom, this defense is ranked the same as their offense, at 48th with a rating of 99.1.

The Longhorns have an underrated frontcourt compared to most teams in the SEC. Down low, Arthur Kaluma is the best rebounder, averaging 7.8 points per game, and Kadin Shedrick is the block leader, averaging 1.7 per game. Then, Texas’s on-ball defense has also been inconsistent, with two players averaging at least one steal and Jordan Pope being the steals leader, averaging 1.1 per game.

This defense has been more up and down than their offense, but they get a decent matchup against the Aggies and this offense. Texas A&M has an unimpressive offense and the Longhorns could take advantage.

The Aggies’ defense has been excellent all season and is only behind Tennessee in the conference. They allow 67.1 points per game, 40.2% from the field, and 33.2% from behind the arc. In KenPom, their defensive rating is 91.9, which is eighth in adjusted defense.

The frontcourt has been very balanced. Andersson Garcia leads the team in rebounding with 6.1 per game, and Solomon Washington leads the team in blocks with 1.2 per game. The Aggies have been a tremendous on-ball defensive team, and their strength is significant. Four Aggies are averaging at least one steal, with Phelps leading the team with 1.8 per game.

The Aggies’ defense can handle anyone in the SEC. It can disrupt Texas’s offense and slow down Johnson from getting hot, and they are the best unit in this game.

Final Texas-Texas A&M Prediction & Pick

I think this rivalry game will end up being close. Texas is desperate, and A&M consistently plays hard regardless. Texas has enough in the tank to keep this game close, but the Aggies win thanks to their higher talent level.

Final Texas-Texas A&M Prediction & Pick: Texas +5.5 (-102)

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