UConn basketball bold predictions as Dan Hurley's team goes for three-peat

10/31/2024 03:29 PM

In just six days, the UConn Huskies will officially begin their quest to become the first team to win at least three National Championships in a row since John Wooden’s UCLA Bruins won their seventh straight title in 1973. For the Huskies, it would be a remarkable seventh title since 1999, and the one that would leave absolutely no doubt regarding UConn’s blue blood status.

To be clear, there should already be no doubt, but it seems that the Duke’s, North Carolina’s and Kentucky’s of the world are hesitant to allow a new member into this exclusive club. The rest of the country, including analysts and voters in the AP Poll, are slighting the Huskies too, ranking the two-time defending champs third in the Preseason AP Top 25 Poll.

So can UConn three-peat? Who will pick up the slack after four starters departed from last year’s team? And what can we expect from some of the new faces in Storrs?

Let’s dive in!

Solo Ball will lead the UConn Huskies in scoring 

Solo Ball earned 10 starts near the beginning of his freshman season last year, but played sparingly over the last fifteen games of the season, averaging only 3 minutes per game. Look at the raw numbers, and there’s not a whole lot to go on to project Ball having a breakout year.

But if you took the time to watch UConn’s exhibition game against Rhode Island — a game in which Ball led the Huskies in scoring and made a few high-level athletic plays — or listen to what Dan Hurley has had to say about the sophomore this offseason, and you’ll likely be convinced that he’s ready for a breakout.

“I think he's got a good chance, in my mind, to be the guy who makes the biggest jump for us this year. It's like a bankable thing where just what I'm seeing every day — the shooting, the athleticism, the pedigree,” Hurley said of Ball earlier in October, per Mike Anthony of Connecticut Insider. “He looks like a guy that's going to have a big year."

Rebounding will be a major issue all season long 

UConn was 4th in rebounding percentage last year, and 2nd during their 2022-23 championship campaign. They secured 275 more rebounds than their opponents over the course of their 40 games last season. But this is going to be an issue as the Huskies go on the hunt for a three-peat.

Losing 7-foot-2 center Donovan Clingan will obviously take a toll, but losing a big backcourt trio of Tristen Newton, Cam Spencer and Stephon Castle will prove to be just as much of a problem. Last year, Newton, Spencer, and Castle averaged a combined 16.2 rebounds per game. Their ability to turn end possessions and turn defensive rebounds into transition opportunities is part of what made UConn such a dangerous team when they got out on the break. There just isn’t as much rebounding on the court.

For as much of a pest as Hassan Diarra could be on the defensive end of the floor, the senior point guard is only 6-foot-2. Samson Johnson, the Huskies starting center, didn’t even average 7 rebounds per 40 minutes last season, which could pave the way for Michigan transfer Tarris Reed to get more playing time. 6-foot-7 freshman Liam McNeeley brings good size and a sweet shooting stroke to the lineup, but he may need some time to adjust to the physicality of the college game.

UConn will win the Big East, and Alex Karaban will win Tourney MVP 

The two-year starter at forward who Dan Hurley called “the smartest player in college basketball” will finally get his own individual moment to shine when UConn makes the trip to Storrs South for the Big East Tournament. The Huskies haven’t repeated as Big East Conference Tournament champs since 1999 — the same year Jim Calhoun led the program to their first National Title — but Dan Hurley’s squad knows a little something about bucking long-running trends.

Aidan Mahaney will finally have his March moment 

Aidan Mahaney has spent the last two years out in California, helping Saint Mary’s earn back to back NCAA Tournament bids. The Gaels even stole the WCC Tournament title from Gonzaga last year. But once the Big Dance has begun, Mahaney has had his struggles. In three NCAA Tournament games, the junior guard has averaged just 7.3 points per game and has shot a putrid 9-for-39 from the field. This is a major departure from what we’ve come to expect from the two-time All-WCC performer.

Mahaney isn’t going to be the go-to-guy on this Huskies team. As the season nears it’s start, he’s not even in UConn’s starting lineup. But the junior will play plenty, and he’ll be unafraid to hoist shots up from distance. My money tells me they’ll go down at a more palatable clip in the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

UConn will three-peat as National Champions, but it won’t come easy 

This team won’t be as prolific as either of the last two UConn teams were, and the field of high-level competition for the crown is likely deeper than it was last year. Worthy challengers reside at Kansas, Duke, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Iowa State, and Houston, among other locations, but in my mind, the Huskies have earned the benefit of the doubt — even with a largely new cast of characters — to be picked as champions until someone knocks them off when it matters most.

So don’t expect UConn’s run of double-digit tournament victories to extend to 18. But don’t be surprised if Dan Hurley is cutting down the nets in early April once again.

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