UConn vs. Butler prediction, odds, pick for College Basketball

12/20/2024 05:52 PM

Following an overtime win over Xavier, UConn (9-3) will play its first Big East road game of the year when they travel to Butler (7-5) on Saturday. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a UConn-Butler prediction and pick.

UConn is riding a five-game win streak into the meeting that puts them back on the preseason trajectory they had outlined. The Huskies’ win streak includes notable victories over Baylor and Gonzaga to rank them at No. 11 in the AP poll.

Butler has endured an opposite stretch of luck, losing four straight entering Big East play. The Bulldogs’ rough four-game skid includes three defeats to ranked opponents and a brutal loss to North Dakota State at home.

Here are the UConn-Butler College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel

College Basketball Odds: UConn-Butler Odds

UConn: -5.5 (-114)

Moneyline: -235

Butler: +5.5 (-106)

Moneyline: +195

Over: 144.5 (-110)

Under: 144.5 (-110)

How to Watch UConn vs. Butler

Time: Noon ET / 9 a.m. PT

TV: Peacock

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Why UConn Will Cover The Spread/Win

This is as rough of a scheduling period as Butler will endure all season long. They really needed that win over North Dakota State, as they now go straight from losses against Wisconsin and Marquette into a matchup with the two-time defending champions, all within an eight-day span. Through nine all-time meetings, Butler has never beaten UConn.

Despite three of their losses being against formidable opponents, Butler’s struggles are actually worse than it looks. The Bulldogs lost starting center Augusto Cassia during the loss to North Dakota State, sending Thad Matta into clear panic mode. The injury forced Matta to start the immobile fifth-year big man Andre Screen against Wisconsin. However, Matta quickly changed course the following game against Marquette and instead started 6-foot-3 guard Landon Moore.

It remains unclear who Matta plans to go with for this game but either way, the Bulldogs will be in trouble. UConn’s frontcourt of Alex Karaban, Tarris Reed, and Liam McNeeley will prevent Matta from going small again but create a world of mismatches for the Huskies on offense. Screen and Butler have struggled against perimeter-based big men and rebounding all year, ranking among the worst in the country in points to opposing centers and offensive rebounds allowed. Either one of Karaban, McNeeley or Reed will have a mismatch every time down the court.

Why Butler Will Cover The Spread/Win

If there is a silver lining in Butler’s current losing streak, it’s that they have not been entirely played off the court in either of their losses. Despite playing from behind all game, they were just a handful of plays away from making the Marquette game interesting. As a favorite, the Bulldogs are just 3-4 ATS. However, they are a slightly better 3-2 ATS as underdogs.

The Butler offense cannot keep pace with UConn possession for possession, but they have to get off to a hot start. For as good as the Huskies have been lately, they are still struggling on defense. UConn is particularly exploitable from deep, where they allow their opponents to hit a Big East-worst 39.2 percent of their shots. Butler’s three best scorers — Jahmyl Telfort, Pierre Brooks, and Patrick McCaffrey — are all at their best when they can get the three-ball going.

Butler has had their own defensive struggles recently but still remains a top three-point defense, allowing opponents to hit at just 29 percent. The Bulldogs’s switch-happy defense also allows just 10.8 assists per game. Against similar formats, UConn has struggled, as their offense is predicated on ball movement. The Huskies generate the third-most assists per game in the country, whereas Butler’s defense is centered around forcing teams to beat them in isolation.

Final UConn-Butler Prediction & Pick

It is hard to pin down which version of either team will show up. The best version of Butler can beat teams like Mississippi State, but at their worst, they lose to teams like Austin Peay and North Dakota State. Likewise, UConn has the potential to look like either the best team in the country or an average unit.

Cassia’s injury did not impact Butler much against Wisconsin or Marquette, but it will against UConn. Either one of Screen or sophomore Boden Kapke will need to be on the floor at all times and neither have the physicality to match up. Reed, who has 34 offensive rebounds on the year, will be particularly tough for Butler to maintain on the offensive glass. Unless the Bulldogs can get hot from deep as a whole, this one could get out of hand.

Final UConn-Butler Prediction & Pick: UConn -5.5 (-114)

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