Utah State vs. Fresno State prediction, pick, college basketball odds
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The college basketball season continues on Friday with a matchup between Utah State and Fresno State. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Utah State-Fresno State prediction and pick.
The Utah State Aggies (20-3) enter Friday's matchup against Fresno State (5-18) as heavy favorites, riding a strong second-half surge in their recent 71-67 road win over Wyoming. Ian Martinez leads the Aggies with 19.6 PPG, supported by a balanced offense averaging 78.4 PPG (3rd in MWC). Fresno State, meanwhile, ranks last in the conference defensively (81.6 PPG allowed) and has lost five straight, including an 82-60 blowout at Boise State. While Utah State's efficient offense (48.1% FG) should exploit Fresno's weak interior defense, the Bulldogs' limited roster depth, and road struggles (1-10 away) make an upset unlikely. Tip-off is 10 PM PT at Save Mart Center.
Here are the Utah State-Fresno State College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Utah State-Fresno State Odds
Utah State: -13.5 (-112)
Moneyline: -1250
Fresno State: +13.5 (-108)
Moneyline: +740
Over: 155.5 (-115)
Under: 155.5 (-105)
How to Watch Utah State vs. Fresno State
Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00 PM PT
TV: MW Network
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Utah State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Utah State enters Friday's matchup against Fresno State poised to extend its dominance in the Mountain West, thanks to an explosive offense and Fresno's defensive frailties. The Aggies (20-3) rank third in the conference in scoring (78.4 PPG) behind Ian Martinez's 17.0 PPG and a balanced attack featuring four double-digit scorers, including Mason Falslev (14.2 PPG) and Drake Allen (11.0 PPG)78. Utah State's 48.1% team shooting efficiency and ability to generate second-chance opportunities (13.0 offensive rebounds per game) will exploit a Fresno State defense that ranks last in the MW in points allowed (81.6 PPG) and opponents' field goal percentage (48.6%). The Bulldogs (5-17, 1-10 MW) have surrendered 80+ points in five of their last six games, including a 94-91 double-overtime collapse against San Jose State, where defensive breakdowns in transition and perimeter coverage proved costly. Utah State's adaptability — ranking top-50 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency — gives them multiple avenues to overwhelm Fresno's inconsistent rotation.
Fresno State's offensive limitations further tilt the scales toward Utah State. The Bulldogs rely heavily on guards Zaon Collins (12.6 PPG) and Jalen Weaver (10.1 PPG), but their 41.8% team shooting and 33.3% three-point accuracy rank near the bottom of the MW38. This one-dimensional attack struggles against disciplined defenses, as seen in their 60-point outing in a blowout loss to Boise State last week. Utah State, meanwhile, has held opponents to 67.2 PPG on the road this season, anchored by Falslev's 2.3 steals per game and 7-footer Aubin Gateretse's rim protection714. Fresno's lack of depth — only six players average more than 15 minutes — will be exposed against Utah State's relentless pace, particularly in transition where the Aggies score 14.5 PPG. With Fresno also winless on the road in conference play, Utah State's home-court edge at the Spectrum (11-1 this season) should seal a comfortable victory.
Why Fresno State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Fresno State enters Friday's matchup with Utah State as heavy underdogs, but the Bulldogs are primed to exploit vulnerabilities in the Aggies' recent performances. While Utah State (20-4, 10-2 MW) boasts a top-tier offense (78.4 PPG), its defense has shown cracks, particularly in second halves. The Aggies surrendered 52 second-half points to New Mexico in a 19-point home collapse on Feb. 1, highlighting susceptibility to sustained offensive pressure. Fresno State's backcourt duo of Zaon Collins (12.6 PPG, 4.3 APG) and Jalen Weaver (10.1 PPG) has flashed explosiveness, combining for 45 points in a recent double-overtime thriller against San Jose State1215. If the Bulldogs leverage their transition pace (14.5 PPG off turnovers)6 and attack Utah State's inconsistent perimeter defense (32.8% 3PT allowed), they can disrupt the Aggies' rhythm.
Utah State's reliance on free throws (24.0 FTA/G)36 also plays into Fresno State's underrated strengths. The Bulldogs force 13.9 turnovers per game31 and rank third in the Mountain West in steals (7.4 SPG)6, which could limit Utah State's ability to draw fouls. Fresno's 7-foot-1 center Mor Seck (1.2 BPG)8 provides rim protection against an Aggie team shooting just 43.5% on two-pointers in conference play. While Utah State remains favored, Fresno's desperation as a team fighting to avoid MWC irrelevance—coupled with Utah State's post-New Mexico hangover—creates a trap-game scenario. If the Bulldogs replicate their third-quarter surge against San Diego State (72% FG), they'll stun the Spectrum crowd.
Final Utah State-Fresno State Prediction & Pick
Utah State (-13.5) should comfortably cover against struggling Fresno State, leveraging its top-tier offense (81.0 PPG) against the Bulldogs' porous defense (82.2 PPG allowed). The Aggies' balanced attack, featuring Mason Falslev (14.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG) and Ian Martinez (16.5 PPG), has overwhelmed MWC opponents, while Fresno's 48.6% FG defense and 13.9 turnovers per game create exploitable gaps. Though Fresno State holds a 12-9-2 ATS record this season, their recent 1-9 SU/5-4-1 ATS skid and lack of depth (six rotational players) make sustained competitiveness unlikely. Utah State's +8.4 rebounding margin per game should fuel transition opportunities, widening the gap against a Fresno team that's 1-11 in conference play. Expect the Aggies' defensive pressure (9.0 SPG) to trigger easy buckets, covering the spread iat Save Mart Center on Friday.
Final Utah State-Fresno State Prediction & Pick: Utah State -13.5 (-112), Over 155.5 (-115)
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