UTEP vs. Louisville prediction, odds, pick for College Basketball

12/10/2024 05:52 PM

These two teams have started the season playing inconsistent basketball. Louisville has had opportunities but has not gotten over the hump, while UTEP has not faced a big challenge just yet. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a UTEP-Louisville prediction and pick.

UTEP is 6-2 entering this game, with notable wins against UC Santa Barbara and Long Beach State. They also have losses against Utah Valley and San Jose State. They have some potential this season in Conference USA. Otis Frazier III and Corey Camper Jr. are the big pieces they have, and they can carry them when needed. This is a massive challenge against Louisville on the road.

Louisville is 5-4 this season and has lost three straight games entering this matchup. They have notable wins against Indiana and West Virginia, but they have also lost to Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and Duke. Chucky Hepburn and Reyne Smith have been the two biggest keys for the Cardinals this year. Louisville has a lot of potential this year, but they need to get back on track and can do it in this game.

Here are the UTEP-Louisville College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel 

College Basketball Odds: UTEP-Louisville Odds

UTEP: +14.5 (-105)

Moneyline: +920

Louisville: -14.5 (-115)

Moneyline: -1800

Over: 142.5 (-115)

Under: 142.5 (-105)

How to Watch UTEP vs. Louisville

Time: 7:00 pm ET/4:00 pm PT

TV: ESPN+/ACC Extra

*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why UTEP Will Cover The Spread/Win

UTEP’s offense has been inconsistent since the start of the season. They score 75.8 points per game, have a 46.7% field goal percentage, and a 39.7% three-point shooting percentage. This season, four Miners are averaging over double digits in scoring, with Otis Frazier III leading at 13.6 points per game. Then, Frazier also leads the team in assists at 3.5 per game. The Miners have been solid this year, but this is their first real big test from a Power conference. Louisville has a solid defense, so they have an opportunity to overwhelm this offense if Frazier can not get going on offense.

The Miners’ defense has been solid this year. They allow 65.4 points per game, 42.9% from the field, and 35.1% from behind the arc. Frazier and Kevin Kalu are tied for the team lead in assists at 4.3. Frazier then leads the team in blocks at one per game. Finally, six players are averaging at least one steal per game and Corey Camper Jr. leads with 2.9 per game. The Miners have muddied games up with their defense due to their struggles in scoring. The Miners have a strength in this matchup because Louisville’s offense is not all that impressive. This could be the key matchup in the game.

Why Louisville Will Cover The Spread/Win

Louisville’s offense has been solid at best this year. They score 76 points per game, have a 42.8% field goal percentage, and a 28.2% three-point shooting percentage. Four Fighting Illini players are averaging over double digits in scoring this season, with Chucky Hepburn leading the team with 14.3 points per game. Reyne Smith is just behind at 12.6 points per game. Hepburn is also the team leader in assists at 4.6 per game. The Cardinals have been solid on offense, but have been nothing special. This is a tough matchup because UTEP is a very defensive-focused team. Louisville is the better team and has the athletes to physically dominate the defense for UTEP if it gets there.

Louisville’s defense has also been great this year. They allow 68.1 points per game, 42.2% from the field, and 32.9% from behind the arc. Down low, J’Vonne Hadley has also been great, averaging 7.6 rebounds per game. Then, three players average at least one block per game, with Aboubacar Traore leading at 1.5. Finally, three players average at least one steal per game, with Chucky Hepburn leading at 3.2 per game. This defense is a big key in this game because the Miners have struggled to score and would love to get into a rock fight with Louisville. Still, Hepburn and the rest of the offense should find ways to score in this game, just by outmatching UTEP.

Final UTEP-Louisville Prediction & Pick

The Miners have shown some potential this year, but Louisville is head and shoulders above them in this game. Chucky Hepburn, Reyne Smith, and Jasean Pryor should be able to score at will in this game, especially at home. Louisville has more athletes and can overwhelm UTEP. Expect Louisville to win and cover in this game at home.

Final UTEP-Louisville Prediction & Pick: Louisville -14.5 (-115)

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