Virginia vs. SMU prediction, odds, pick for College Basketball

12/06/2024 06:22 PM

We’re set for yet another College Basketball betting prediction and pick as we head back to the ACC for this next conference clash. The Virginia Cavaliers (5-3) will officially welcome the SMU Mustangs (7-2) to their new conference as both teams open ACC play. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Virginia-SMU prediction and pick.

Virginia Basketball holds a winning record despite losing their most recent game 87-69 to No. 13 Florida. The loss broke a two-game winning streak for the Cavaliers and all of their three losses this season have come against ranked opponents (Tennessee, St. John’s, Florida). They’ll hope for another win as the sizable betting underdogs.

SMU Basketball will open their first ACC schedule as betting favorites in their new conference. They most recently took down Alabama State 101-72, marking their third consecutive win heading into this one. We’ll get a chance to see what the Mustangs are made of as they head into the tougher part of their schedule.

Here are the Virginia-SMU College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel 

College Basketball Odds: Virginia-SMU Odds

Virginia: +10.5 (-110)

Moneyline: +450

SMU: -10.5 (-110)

Moneyline: -630

Over: 134.5 (-115)

Under: 134.5 (-105)

How to Watch Virginia vs. SMU

Time: 2:15 p.m. ET/ 11:15 a.m. PT

TV: CW Network

*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why Virginia Will Cover The Spread/Win

The Virginia Cavaliers have been doing all the right things this season, but they can’t seem to get over the hump of beating ranked teams, not putting up much of a fight in their three opportunities to do so. They’ll only need to see one other ranked opponent in No. 16 Memphis over the next 15 games, so the Cavaliers stand a chance to make up ground and become competitive in a rather wide-open conference. Look for them to show significant improvement from their last loss to Florida.

YES to this whoooole sequence#GoHoospic.twitter.com/dMXDtkxSnr

— Virginia Men’s Basketball (@UVAMensHoops) December 5, 2024

Virginia’s offense ranks dead-last in the ACC at just 63.0 PPG, but their defense ranks second in the conference in allowing opponents only 62.3 PPG. It’s a significant contrast between their production on both ends of the floor, but they’ll certainly need their defensive efforts to be on point against one of the better scoring teams in the conference. Expect their success to stem from the defensive end as they crash the paint and try to out-rebound the transition offense of the Mustangs.

Why SMU Will Cover The Spread/Win

Heading into their first action as a new member of the ACC, the SMU Mustangs are looking to bring their run-and-gun style of play to the east coast and contend for the conference. Their 88.3 PPG ranks 11th in the nation and second in the ACC, behind only North Carolina. Their two losses to Butler and Mississippi State are surely questionable, but we’ve seen the Mustangs take care of business when they should be. If they’re able to sustain this type of offensive production, they should easily cruise past a Virginia offense struggling to score the ball.

Run back another 100-point dub. #PonyUppic.twitter.com/ARSS4TMXb3

— SMU Basketball (@SMUBasketball) December 4, 2024

The Mustangs are playing behind a collective effort on the offensive end and they feature a deep lineup that can score the ball at every position. While guard Boopie Miller leads the team with 15.6 PPG, the Mustangs have five total players averaging in double-digits and they’re shooting an impressive 48.1% from the field as a team. This will be their first true test facing off against a top-tier defense in the country.

Final Virginia-SMU Prediction & Pick

We have another fun ACC matchup on our hands as both teams play the first game of their conference schedule. Virginia has certainly faced the tougher schedule and their only losses have come against ranked teams this season. The SMU Mustangs, on the other hand, have been firing on all cylinders in terms of their offense, but their schedule hasn’t been nearly as difficult as their opponents’ resume.

This will be a classic showdown between top-performing defense and top-performing offense as these two teams meet. We have to give the slight edge to SMU and while Virginia has played the tougher competition, they certainly haven’t looked good in doing so given their losses.

With this game being played in Dallas, we have to favor SMU to win this game. While they’re just 4-5 ATS on the season, the Cavaliers have a much worse mark at 2-6 ATS. While we can expect to see a close contest through the early stages of this one, I expect the Mustangs to eventually pull away and cover the spread. Let’s roll with SMU.

Final Virginia-SMU Prediction & Pick: SMU -10.5 (-110)

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