Why TCU women's basketball will win 2025 NCAA Tournament

03/30/2025 09:27 PM

As the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament continues, the list of options for the sport’s next national titleholder narrows down. Now that teams have nowhere left to hide, TCU women’s basketball keeps emerging as one of the most promising contenders for the championship.

The Horned Frogs aren’t just operating with a high level of talent, player leadership, and solid coaching following their 71-62 win over Notre Dame; they’re also riding the momentum of overcoming some of the most difficult opponents in the March Madness field.

This team has also notched symbolic wins in addition to its literal ones, marking TCU’s first Elite Eight appearance in NCAA Tournament history. With the amount of confidence the program is feeling, TCU is primed for an even deeper Cinderella-like run – one that leads straight to a national title.

Transfer depth

The Frogs have built a team that’s capable of playing competitively against any squad in the country. Head coach Mark Campbell’s blend of seasoned transfer veterans and emerging recruited talent results in the type of offensive and defensive play that gives TCU an edge over its opponents.

Campbell revealed his strategy to transform the program from one that finished 21-12 and missed the postseason to a No. 2 NCAA Tournament seed and Final Four hopeful in a year was to utilize the transfer portal.

“We value culture. We value getting the right personalities, egos, alphas. As you put together a team, you have your basketball piece and your style of play,” he said after TCU women’s basketball took down Notre Dame. “So we have worked incredibly hard to vet and try to get the right pieces.”

Most notably, pick-and-roll partners Hailey Van Lith and Sedona Prince are both transplants from LSU and Oregon, respectively. Sharpshooter Madison Conner made the switch from Arizona and has etched her name into the TCU and SEC history books multiple times in the two years since, including the school records for 3-pointers in a campaign (127) and most points in a regular-season contest (41).

Campbell’s side is reaping the rewards of his efforts. TCU’s transfers have been crucial to its success so far, and that factor will need to stay consistent for the NCAA Tournament trophy to stay in sight.

The roster’s versatility is especially valuable in the pressure cooker that is March Madness. A reliable starting lineup keeps all the playmaking responsibility from falling solely on star graduate student Van Lith, which only adds to the Frogs’ longevity in the competition.

Stifling defense

If the saying “defense wins championships” remains even the slightest bit true, then there are few teams that have a better shot at cutting down the nets than TCU women’s basketball.

The Frogs are known for being disruptive on defense, forcing turnovers, contesting shots in the paint and just generally creating chaos. Their experienced lineup is riddled with players that show up on both sides of the court, meaning it’s more difficult for opposing offenses to keep up with where threats like Van Lith are on the court.

Van Lith did have an impressive Sweet 16 outing against the Irish in an already decorated season for her. The Big 12 Player of the Year single-handedly outscored Notre Dame in the fourth quarter, finishing with a game-high 26 points en route to becoming the first player – man or woman – to reach five Elite Eights.

But it was her defense that led the second-half comeback for the Frogs. With TCU down in the third, Van Lith forced a steal and then had a block on back-to-back possessions while ending up with nine boards. Meanwhile, 6-foot-7 center Prince created too much of a mismatch for the Irish to handle and dominated the paint on her way to 21 points and six rebounds.

As the focal point of the Frogs’ defense, Prince’s performance versus first-seeded Texas will be one of the factors that determines whether the program will make its March Madness Final Four debut.

Thanks to the elite roster’s on-court chemistry, tactical coaching and fortune in its favor, the TCU women’s basketball team is more than capable of beating out every opponent for the trophy. The time coach Campbell has spent rebuilding this squad has a realistic chance of paying off sooner than he, or anyone, could’ve expected.

As the Horned Frogs build on their success, it’s clear that they’re a force to be reckoned with. Even with the odds stacked against them, the TCU women’s basketball team could be celebrating its first-ever NCAA Tournament victory.

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