Why Texas women's basketball will win 2025 NCAA Tournament

03/28/2025 09:16 PM

The 2025 women’s NCAA Tournament is shifting into its next phase after a couple of high-scoring rounds that saw few upset opportunities. Only heavy hitters remain, and the true contenders are beginning to stand out from a mostly evenly matched field. However, few programs heading into the Sweet 16 are more confident in their ability to win it all than the Texas women’s basketball team.

There aren’t many other squads that can give Texas a real challenge until deep into the tournament, as demonstrated by its decisive wins over William & Mary and Illinois in the Rounds of 64 and 32, respectively. The Longhorns have plenty of recent March Madness experience but haven’t made it past the Elite Eight since 2003, meaning they’re hungry for a breakout run.

Texas possesses a combination of elite and balanced talent, defensive dominance, offensive versatility, and seasoned coaching that is difficult for other squads to match. If they can maintain their focus and use their NCAA Tournament background to their advantage, the Longhorns will be the last squad standing.

Elite defense

Few opponents, if any, can overcome Texas’ smothering defense. The program has long been known for its exceptional defensive skill set, which is thanks in part to the versatile roster of players it possesses. The top-five defense forced 20 takeaways against the Illini, placing them the second in the SEC at generating at least 20 turnovers per game.

The Longhorns displayed that they’re also one of the nation’s best rebounding teams versus the Tribe in the first round, outrebounding their foes 51-26. Texas has long proved it can run away with the game off of offensive boards and second-chance points alone, notching a 16.4-point-per-game average this campaign.

The program even boasts a Defensive Player of the Year award semifinalist in defensive leader Rori Harmon. Pair all those factors with their ability to control the defensive glass and limit second-chance opportunities for others, and a defensive effort so relentless can easily wear competitors down.

Multifaceted offense

Texas also boasts a high-powered offense that sticks to its players’ strengths when it comes to adopting different playing styles. Head coach Vic Schaefer builds his teams around dynamic game managers and the traditional center role, meaning his unit is equipped to score in a variety of ways and have the offensive advantage of creating mismatches and keeping opponents on their toes.

SEC Player of the Year Madison Booker is the best player on the court more nights than not. The young sophomore plays beyond her years, leading her team in points at 16.4 per game on 46% shooting from the field.

Meanwhile, star senior Harmon, who returned to the offensive helm this season from an ACL tear, sits second in the Longhorn history books with 703 assists while also being the first to reach 1,200 points and 600 assists. The two-way player is also elite on defense, racking up four steals in the win over Illinois.

But outside of Harmon and Booker, the Longhorns are fortunate to have a deep bench to pull from, which provides fresh energy and additional scoring options in pressure-filled moments.

Teammates like Jordan Lee and Ndjakalenga Mwenentanda showed how crucial their contributions also are, both putting up double-digit points in Round 1 and Mwenentanda breaking out for 19 in Round 2.

Some would point to Texas’ lack of emphasis on its 3-point game as a potential fatal flaw. The team only makes 29.6% of its attempts, and its rate from beyond the arc has only declined since 2020, now sitting at 17% – over 5% lower than all but one of the last five national champions.

However, Schaefer’s dominate-the-paint strategy is intentional, and schools have claimed titles with similar stats, namely Pat Summit’s 1989 and 1996 Tennessee squads.

The Longhorns were also able to win their first two contests with ease despite only making three triples in total. Besides, they don’t need 3-pointers with players like Taylor Jones and Kyla Oldacre in the lineup, who both dominate down low and shoot nearly 70% from around the rim.

Being able to rely on multiple players for scoring, rebounding, and defense gives Texas longevity in the tournament and takes the pressure of carrying the entire load off of standouts like Booker. When the Longhorns are sharing responsibilities and firing on all cylinders, few teams can keep up.

Postseason redemption

As much of a force as Texas women’s basketball is in the college game, the team has fallen short of the trophy despite making nearly annual appearances in the tournament.

The Longhorns have made 37 postseason trips in their history, tying for the second-most among all NCAA Division 1 programs, but have not come out on top since winning their sole title in 1986.

Fifth-year coach Schaefer, who has a 28-9 NCAA Tournament record himself, is also familiar with the taste of defeat on the national stage due to two championship losses in 2017 and 2018 with Mississippi State.

That’s a long stretch of disappointing endings.

That 1985-86 team is cemented in history as a legendary squad – it was the first-ever women’s side to become undefeated national champs – but clinching two No. 1 March Madness seeds in back-to-back years proves the current Texas women’s basketball team is looking to secure its championship legacy as well.

The Longhorns’ desire to claim the national title for the first time in nearly 40 years will be one of their biggest motivating factors. A focused and determined Texas side playing at its highest level should put fear into every competitor standing in the path of the title.

Schaefer and the Longhorns are the ones in the driver’s seat when it comes to determining how far they’ll last in this year’s March Madness tournament. As long as the team stays in control of the game’s pace, utilizes its size advantages, and dominates the paint on both ends of the court, Texas can slide through to the championship game.

With remarkable depth, shutdown defense, unique gameplay, and potential breakthroughs from key players, the Texas women’s basketball team is in a prime position to secure 2025’s NCAA Tournament trophy.

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