Around the NBA: Cleveland's historic start and Golden State's revival

11/25/2024 09:00 AM

Can the Cavs and Warriors stay at the top of their respective conferences?

After a long hiatus, Around the NBA is back!

It felt right to wait a few weeks before writing the first edition of the series this season to avoid small sample-size theatre. We're still only a month in, but there's now enough data to discern between what's real and what isn't.

So, without further ado, let's analyze the hot starts of the Cavs and Warriors.

The Cavs are 17-1, and it's no longer 2016

If anyone thought that Cleveland would become a contender just six years after another LeBron departure, then they're as big of a liar as the King himself.

Yet, the Cavs' 15-0 start to the season is tied for the second-longest win streak to begin a year in league history, and they're playing like legitimate title contenders. More importantly, this feels different than the 22-4 run they went on last year because they've done it with their Big Four intact.

Interestingly, Cleveland's current +2.9 net rating with all four playing is right in line with their +2.7 mark last year. In short, the fit of those four still isn't as seamless as fans might expect, but it's their other duos that have pleasantly surprised.

Instead of pairing Darius Garland with Evan Mobley and Donovan Mitchell with Jarrett Allen as usual, Kenny Atkinson has experimented like a mad scientist. The Mitchell-Mobley and Garland-Allen combos have actually shared the court more than the aforementioned pairs, and to much success: Mitchell and Mobley have a whopping +20.8 net rating together, while Garland and Allen have a more sustainable figure of +9.3.

Garland and Allen's success isn't surprising, as the duo has historically been dominant outside of last year when Garland struggled with injuries. What has been new, though, is Mobley's aggression on offense — something that has been evident regardless of who he shares the court with.

For starters, Mobley is running four times as many pick and rolls as the ballhandler per game as he did last year. Due to his (still) limited shooting, this mitigates the floor spacing issue, and defenders still need to guard him due to his passing ability. An example can be seen below, where Mobley runs an inverted set that gives Garland an open layup.

With another non-shooter in Allen also on the floor, Atkinson cleverly set up the play to look like Garland would receive the ball off of a screen. This forced Allen's defender to step up even though he's not a shooting threat, which left the paint undefended after Garland rejected the screen.

Putting the ball more in Mobley's hands has helped his driving game, too. He's averaging 7.6 drives per game this year (an increase from 4.7), and Mobley's added strength helps him get to the rim with more ease.

With everything clicking simultaneously, the Cavs' current 124.5 offensive rating ranks first and is a ludicrous 9.2 points better than last year when they were 18th. That number isn't sustainable given their 41.8% shooting from deep (only two teams since 2019 have cracked 40%, and both came in the wacky COVID-shortened 2020-21 season), but it's possible for them to remain around the top five.

Pair that with a legitimate top-10 defense and the numbers suggest that Cleveland is a bonafide contender that could finish as the best regular season team. Personally, I'm still bearish on their chances since they lack an MVP-calibre player and the fit of the Big Four remains wonky, but there's no doubt that the Cavs' ceiling is higher than most anticipated.

Only time will tell if they're truly capable of bringing home another championship.

Is Golden State the new zombies of the league?

Less than a year ago, I "boldly" pronounced that the Warriors dynasty was dead. Well, I guess they got wind of that and decided to prove me (of all people) wrong. Can they sustain their level and stay atop the West? Well, there are both good and bad news.

Offensively, Golden State currently sits 13th league-wide, and their 114.3 offensive rating is lower than the 117.8 they averaged last year when they finished 10th. Impressively, they've managed to remain in the top half of the league even with Steph averaging just 22 points per game. Don't get it twisted, though: Wardell remains as beautiful as ever, and his decrease in scoring is simply due to him shooting four fewer times per game than last year.

The Warriors can afford that due to their newfound depth, and they're able to continue playing the same brand of offense even with Steph on the bench because of Buddy Hield's addition. Just take a look at the play below, where Hield comes off a down screen set by a big for an open three. Sound familiar?

Golden State used to run this for Klay Thompson too, but Hield's fit has been even better than the former Splash Brother since he's quicker and more agile than the aging Klay. Hield is also a much better ballhandler, which adds another threat to the Warriors offense.

Similar to Cleveland, many of Golden State's bigs are also non-shooters, but they're all good passers and cutters. In the same clip, Kyle Anderson is the ballhandler with Kevon Looney setting the screen. Jayson Tatum knows that Looney isn't a shooting threat so he stays in the paint, but that allows Hield to get off an open shot.

Ironically, this Warriors team plays a lot more like their "Strength in Numbers" squad even with Klay gone. They're currently averaging 332.8 passes made per game — the most league-wide — and they seem to create good shots on every possession due to their ball movement. Of course, Steph is still the lynchpin, but preserving his legs for important moments (like Klay's homecoming) means that this Golden State offense is sustainable, and could hit an even higher gear if need be.

Unfortunately, their defense is more questionable. The Warriors finished 15th last season with a 115.6 defensive rating, which has improved to just 106.9 (3rd) this year. That's surprising considering none of Golden State's offseason additions really move the needle in their own end — except De'Anthony Melton, who just suffered a season-ending injury.

The difference, then, all comes down to opponent three-point shooting. Opposing teams are currently converting just 31.2% from deep, and the difference between the Warriors and #2 ranked Clippers (34.2%) is the same as the Clippers and #20 ranked Brooklyn (37.2%). This stat has historically been something that defenses have very little control over, and the teams that have finished with the lowest opponent three-point percentage in recent years have still finished with over 34% of opposing threes being converted.

Golden State also concedes a ton of long-range attempts: 39.7% of opponent shots have been from deep (one of the 10 highest marks in the league), so the floodgates could open when their luck runs out. Still, the Warriors also deserve credit since they don't allow many shots around the rim — 28.6% of opponent shots have come within four feet of the basket, which is the second-lowest mark league-wide.

So while the Warriors' defense won't continue to be this stingy, they do have a shot at staying in the top 10, and at least in the top half of the league. Having an above-average offense to boot should keep Golden State in position to make the playoffs, but their place atop the West likely won't last much longer.

This week, please check out Eric Fritts' article on Wemby shooting threes! That topic has generated plenty of discourse, and Eric does a great job of explaining the rationale behind Wemby shooting so many threes.

Thanks for reading!

All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.