Around the NBA: How far can Luka and the Lakers go?

03/10/2025 12:15 PM

It's finally time to analyze Luka's fit in La La Land.

It's finally time to talk about Luka and the Lakers.

I waited this long so that there would be a bigger sample to work with, but also to let the trade fully sink in — which it hasn't, and never will.

So, let's continue milking (is that healthy for me to drink, Nico?) the craziest trade ever and see where LA stands in the West's hierarchy.

Look, Nico! Luka's contributing to an elite defensive team!

While the addition of Luka was supposed to turbocharge LA's offense, it's actually the team's defense that's fuelled their recent success. The Lakers have the league's best defensive rating since the start of their 20-5 stretch on January 15th (108.8), but the most impressive part is that AD last suited up for the gold and purple on January 28th, and LA's still maintained their number one spot. In fact, since that latter date, the Lakers have had an even better DRTG of 108.7, which is first league-wide by a mile — Cleveland is second over that span at "just" 110.3.

LA's defensive principles are very simple, but they execute them to near perfection. First, the Lakers sell out to keep the opponent from getting the ball in their preferred spots. This was most evident in their recent game against Denver when Nikola Jokic attempted just seven shots total. LA fronted Big Chungus every opportunity they had, even if it came at the expense of allowing other players to get open shots.

Crucially, the Lakers are very selective as to who they choose to leave open. The previous clip is an egregious example of them blatantly staring Russ in the eye and daring him to lay down a Westbrick, and they did it again later with Aaron Gordon.

Although Gordon made that shot, the process here is more important than the results. Even if these poor shooters do knock down a few looks, it still gets the team out of rhythm since that's not their base offense. The result? Gordon and Russ went 7-14 from three but Denver lost by 23 points.

Another tenet of LA's defense is preventing opponents from getting middle penetration. The Lakers always angle their stance so that opposing players are guided toward the sidelines, especially when put in the pick-and-roll. In the play below, Gabe Vincent ices the screen so James Harden has no choice but to drive toward the baseline, where Jaxson Hayes is there to help.

Most importantly, LA plays defense as a unit and their communication is always on point. There isn't a better team in the league at shooting the gap and providing help, especially when the opposition creates an advantage. When Kawhi Leonard got a favorable matchup against Dalton Knecht in a recent meeting, he was immediately swarmed by two more Lakers as soon as he drove by the rookie. It's not a coincidence that Terrence Mann was promptly dismissed due to his poor offensive skills, which goes back to LA's principle of ignoring bad creators/shooters.

This applies to protecting the rim as well. Hayes is no Rudy Gobert, but LA makes up for it by double and triple-teaming opposing bigs in the paint, and they usually get away with it since most centers aren't comfortable passing out of such situations.

In short, the Lakers' defense is performing better than the sum of their parts due to great communication and clinical execution. With that said, there's no way that LA's defensive dominance continues to this extent. Since that January 28th cutoff, opponents have been shooting a meager 31.4% from three — 1.5% worse than the next lowest team at 32.9%. And while the Lakers' defense should rightfully be given plaudits, history shows that teams don't have much control over opponent jumpshots, especially from distance.

Even with LA conceding threes against poor shooters, having opponents convert 31% from deep over a two month span has more to do with the rollercoaster nature of an 82-game campaign than anything else, especially considering that no team has "held" opponent three-point shooting under 34% in a season over the past three years. Moreover, elite talent still trumps all, and LA's lack of such defensive players will catch up to them at some point, regardless of how ingenious their game plans are.

Wait, what about the offense?

Offensively, the Lakers have seen a surprising drop-off after acquiring Luka: they had a 115.9 offensive rating before the trade (9th), and since then, they've only averaged 114.8 (16th during that short span). This has largely been caused by Luka's own inefficiency, as he's shooting just 41.1% from the field and 32.4% from three since donning the purple and gold.

Obviously, that won't continue. The wunderkind is still getting acclimated and has already shown signs of his old self: he's scored 30 or more points in 4 of the past 7 games after not cracking 20 in his first three games as a Laker. Luka and the offense will be fine, so what's most important is seeing how he's changed LA's attack.

A few things stand out right off the bat. First, the Lakers have become a much more heliocentric team that surrounds two binary stars. Pre All-Star break, LA ranked 7th league-wide in passes per game at 295.8, but since then, they've been 22nd, with just 275.3 passes made on average.

Moreover, the Lakers' three-point attempts have skyrocketed. With Luka in town, a staggering 44.5% of LA's shots have come from deep, which "only" ranks second during that span because of how psychopathic Joe Mazzulla is. Before Luka's arrival, the Lakers only attempted 35.9% of their shots as threes, ranking 24th league-wide. Additionally, only 34.1% (22nd) of those attempts have gone in with Luka at the helm — another factor causing their mediocre offense — and once their fortunes turn, the floodgates will open offensively.

Generating more threes isn't the only impact Luka's had on the Lakers. Unsurprisingly, he's also giving LA's bigs easy lobs to finish, and the team's made a robust 71.1% of their shots within 4 feet of the basket since the Don's been in town. That's actually slightly lower than the 72.4% they were converting before the trade, but remember: the Lakers went from having arguably the greatest lob catcher ever in Anthony Davis to, umm, Jaxson Hayes. To still make such a high percentage is impressive and a testament to Luka's genius.

What's disappointing, though, has been the lack of a two-man game between Luka and LeBron. When one has the ball, the other is often just standing stationary in the corner without much movement.

If that's not the case, then they'll stand on opposite sides of the slot awaiting a pass, without running any real plays.

Even so, Luka's addition has reinvigorated LeBron. Even though the King's touches have remained similar, he can now be more of a secondary playmaker rather than one who needs to constantly operate pick and rolls and run actions. As a result, LeBron has been able to reserve his energy for clutch situations and focus more on defense, where he's back playing at an elite level.

Overall, the Lakers have a +7.6 net rating when their transcendent stars share the court, and Luka alone puts up even better numbers, at +11.7 — although both figures are elevated by the unsustainably bad opponent shooting that we covered previously.

With that said, I can't help but think how much more dangerous this LA team could be if Luka and LeBron played off of each other more. I mean, can you imagine how potent a Luka-LeBron pick and roll could be? It would be impossible to stop an action involving two of the greatest basketball minds of all time, who are both walking mismatches due to their size, strength, and smarts.

Unfortunately, we'll need to wait a few weeks to see if that'll come to fruition given that LeGroin's about to take his annual cryo chamber leave before the playoffs start.

So, what's the ceiling for this Lakers squad?

Well, there are good news and bad news. On the positive side, the Lakers will inevitably improve offensively once Luka's efficiency creeps closer to his career norms and the team becomes more acclimated with his style. However, LA's defense will experience a similar regression, but in the opposite direction. The players and their podcasting coach deserve tons of credit for implementing and executing a scheme that works, but history tells us that opposing teams won't continue shooting so poorly from three.

Still, even when things normalize, this Lakers team should realistically play at a top-10 level on both ends of the court. That's the trademark of a solid contender, but not on the level of an OKC, Cleveland, or Boston. Ultimately, LA belongs in the second tier of contenders along the likes of a Denver, and it wouldn't be surprising to see them go on a long playoff run.

This week, please check out Jeje's article on Stephon Castle's recent play! The rook's turned it up lately, and Jeje does a great job of breaking it all down.

Thanks for reading!

All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.