Around the NBA: Jimmy in the Bay, a Fox by the River Walk, and the frisky Clippers

Today at 12:45 PM

It's time to evaluate how stars are integrating in their new cities.

It's been a few weeks since the craziest trade deadline ever, so it's time to evaluate how some familiar faces are performing on their new teams.

Luka and the Lakers are obviously the biggest draw, but given that he's still working back from his calf injury, there isn't a big enough sample to see how a fully in-tune Luka will change LA's style.

So, in the meantime, let's stick to some lesser names. Jimmy Butler and De'Aaron Fox definitely fall under that category when compared to Mr. 270 himself.

Let's start with the man behind Big Face Coffee.

Jimmy in the Bay: who woulda thunk?

The Jimmy Buckets acquisition initially had me scratching my head, but so far, it's paid dividends.

Is Jimmy the perfect fit? Definitely not, due to his lack of shooting, but what I underestimated was how his basketball IQ would allow him to impact Golden State in other ways.

The Warriors are 4-1 following the trade, with three blowout victories and dropping the one game to Dallas by just four points. With Jimmy on the floor, Golden State is +8.5 with a 119.5 offensive rating (84th percentile) and 110.9 defensive rating (78th). Even more promising is the fact that the Warriors have had bad shooting luck on both sides of the ball: they're making just 31.9% off their threes with Jimmy on while conceding 41.9% in their own end.

Simply put, Golden State might very well be even better when those shooting splits experience some positive regression. They should play at the same level at the very least, but the most encouraging sign is how they've performed without Steph.

With Jimmy on and Wardell off, the Warriors have an unsustainable +28.9 net rating due to lucky shooting on both sides of the ball. In other words, notoriously poor shooter Steph Curry is responsible for their bad luck when they share the court.

Jokes aside, Golden State is respectable even when Steph is on the bench due to Jimmy's presence. His passing and playmaking give the team a legit secondary creator, and when Jimmy plays with Steph, he acts like a second Draymond due to his smart cutting and screening.

Take the play below as an example. DeMar initially sags off of Jimmy on the weak side, and the Warriors' split action temporarily gives Steph an open lane to the rim. This forces DeMar to help down low, and Jimmy has the wherewithal to cut inside for an open floater.

Even without Steph, Draymond and Jimmy have used their basketball IQ to make the offense work. Golden State makes it a priority to surround them with three shooters, so when Brandin Podziemski set a screen for Jimmy up top, the two Kings defenders had a momentary lapse in communication that resulted in Jimmy getting an open lane to the rim.

Defensively, Jimmy's locked in too. He's not the same man-to-man defender he used to be, but his smarts and communication allow him to still be an elite team defender. Again, akin to Draymond.

The Warriors still aren't the championship contenders that ChuckDraymond guaranteed them to be, but they now have a shot at beating anyone in the West outside of OKC. Other than the Thunder, I think the only team I'd confidently pick against Golden State would be Denver, so it's exciting to know that Steph still has a shot at winning some playoff series during the twilight of his career.

The Fox and the Alien: best friends?

De'Aaron Fox's short in San Antonio has so far been the tale of two stories: while he passes the eye test with flying colors, the underlying numbers suggest otherwise.

Let's start with the latter. The Spurs have a -2.5 net rating with Fox playing, which is barely better than the team's overall rating of -2.6. Specifically, San Antonio has a 116.8 ORTG (72nd percentile) and a 119.3 DRTG (15th) when Fox is on, but more concerning is the fact that the Spurs' offense gets worse when he shares the court with Wemby (114 ORTG), and the defense only improves marginally (118.3).

Fortunately, both figures should improve. San Antonio's making an unsustainably low 33.3% of their threes when their dynamic duo plays, and the team isn't used to playing with Fox yet: in every game, there are numerous dropped passes that come from Fox due to his teammates not expecting the ball. Those potential assists will be actualized with time, and many of those passes will lead to open shots.

Defensively, the Spurs are also allowing 76.2% shooting at their rim, and remember, this is with Wemby playing. Given that opponents see the biggest dropoff in their field goal percentage with Wemby guarding them (and especially at the rim), I'm chalking this up to just pure variance and small sample size theatre. The Alien has also felt fatigued the last few weeks due to an illness and the discovery of a blood clot in his shoulder, which explains his recent lethargic play. Assuming Wemby makes a full recovery, the Spurs will once again be a top-10 defense next season whenever he's on the floor.

The most exciting aspect of the duo is the synergy between them in the pick and roll. We've only seen glimpses of it so far, but it's already evident that the Fox-Wemby combo could produce one of the most lethal two-man games in the league.

Fox's average of 7.1 P&R possessions per game this year ranks 18th league-wide, and the 1.07 points he scores on such plays is tied for the second-best number among every player within the top 30 for P&R volume. Meanwhile, Wemby is top-10 in the league in terms of frequency as a roll man, and the 1.17 points he scores is tied for fourth among such players, and in the 64th percentile overall.

The few plays we've seen so far have looked as beautiful as you'd expect. In a traditional P&R set, Fox's speed lets him blow by almost any defender in the league, forcing the big to step up and contain a potential drive. As a result, Wemby will be open for the lob:

Another creative play that puts Fox's speed to use is to have him come off of a pindown and immediately receive a hand-off. This leaves the defense scrambling and opens up numerous good looks: Fox could have an open driving lane, or he could dump it off to Wemby on the move. The third option would be passing it to an open shooter in the corner, as both his and Wemby's gravity would force the defense to send help, which can be seen below.

If the Spurs are feeling cheeky, they could also run an inverted set with Wemby as the primary initiator. His gravity will force the opposing big out of the paint, and Fox's speed allows him to get a good look at the rim. Oh, did I mention that the star guard's also shooting 67% within four feet of the basket, which ranks in the 76th percentile?

Adding everything up, the Wemby-Fox pairing is more lethal than I initially anticipated. Fox's average shooting and playmaking skills made me somewhat skeptical of his fit, but his speed and finishing abilities bring other dimensions to the offense that should make this one of the best duos for years to come.

Assuming Wemby comes back 100% next season, San Antonio's contention window has officially begun.

How are the Clippers this good?!?

For a team whom many predicted could finish in the lottery (definitely not me, of course...), the Clippers have surprised everyone and held on to a playoff spot for the entire season.

Oh, and did I mention that Kawhi's only played 16 games?

Even with the Klaw missing most of the season, the Clippers still have a respectable +2.5 net rating that's fuelled by an elite 109.7 DRTG — good for second league-wide. Their most used lineup of Harden-Dunn-Powell-Jones Jr.-Ivica is even better, with a +10.3 net rating and a 104.5 DRTG.

Simply put, everyone on this team knows their role. Harden is the primary playmaker, Kawhi/Powell are the primary scorers, and Zubac is the elite defensive/rebounding big. Meanwhile, their supporting players are all pesky defenders who know how to move the ball and cut on offense.

Zubac, in particular, has been LA's lynchpin on both ends. Defensively, he's held opposing players to 53.5% shooting within six feet of the basket, which is 9.7% lower than their usual percentage — one of the best marks in the league. Zubac's on/off net rating of +14 leads the team, and it might be surprising to find out that his offensive impact (the Clippers score 7.4 more points per 100 possessions with him playing) is actually bigger than his defensive one (LA concedes 6.6 points fewer when he's on).

Zubac's pick-and-roll chemistry with Harden stands out particularly. If the opposing big commits to Harden, Zubac is particularly dangerous in the short mid-range, where he makes 50% of all shots (81st percentile), and his floater is especially lethal.

If the big decides to stick to Zubac, Harden can get easy looks at the rim, which happened later on in the same game.

Zubac is also a dangerous post player, averaging the third most post-ups per game and scoring 1.01 points (58th percentile) on such possessions. As a result, opposing teams need to send doubles if he ever has a mismatch, which opens up his underrated passing game.

Arguably his biggest offensive strength, though, is his rebounding. Zubac's 13% offensive rebounding rate ranks in the 90th percentile, and giving the Clippers numerous second-chance opportunities has helped keep afloat a lacklustre half-court offense.

Of course, the elephant in the room remains the health of Kawhi. Since returning from injury, the Klaw has averaged just 16.9 points on 45.9% shooting in under 27 minutes a game. Even so, it's important to remember that he had a similar stretch to start the 2022-23 season after missing the entire previous year due to a torn ACL. The eye test suggests that Kawhi's still using his strength and craftiness to get to his spots, and he was never a player who relied on supreme athleticism.

The dropoff in production has simply been due to Kawhi still trying to regain some pop in his legs. His shooting splits reflect this, too: he's making less than half of his twos when he's normally in the mid-50s from that area. Again, that happened at the start of the 2022-23 campaign, as well.

I fully expect Kawhi to have a stretch this season where he's reminiscent of his vintage self. Even so, I don't expect this Clippers squad to be anything more than a frisky team that might pull off a first-round upset, and nothing more.

Having a fully healthy Kawhi for a full playoff run would change my tune, but that's like trying to find Bigfoot: such a creature simply doesn't exist.

This week, please check out Eric's article that dives deeper into Wemby's diagnosis. It's a scary situation, for sure, but Eric does a great job of laying out reasons for optimism.

Thanks for reading!

All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.