How the NBA has become more unpredictable than ever

03/05/2024 19:24

A YouTuber took a deep dive into the variability of each game and came to the conclusion that no lead is safe.

It seems like just yesterday that when an NBA team took a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter, you knew the result was in hand. In some instances, a 20-point lead at any time of the game would essentially ice it. When a lead got large enough, coaches would pull their starters and let the bench units get some run to finish things out. And while that still may happen from time to time, coaches are less likely to do so until the final minute of the game nowadays. And even then, you never know when the improbable will happen. Just ask Nick Nurse.

There's been a drastic change in offensive philosophy over the last decade that has been the catalyst for this unpredictability. LeBron James recently explained why on his and JJ Reddick's podcast: basically, it comes down to the three-point revolution led by Steph Curry, which has made it much easier cut into huge deficits quickly.

Today, NBA games have become less and less predictable. The only thing we can really seem to predict is that whoever makes more three pointers is going to win the game.

To get into this further, the YouTube account, JxmyHighroller, recently uploaded a video breaking down the numbers, which at one point, highlights an ESPN article with this Victor Wembanyama quote: "The biggest thing I've learned is a 20-point lead is nothing." (And as we all know, the Spurs had a lot of trouble protecting double-digit leads this season.)

If you're curious just how unpredictable NBA games have become since the days of Michael Jordan, take a few minutes to watch the video below.