Revisiting 2024-25 over-under projections for the Western Conference
Today at 02:06 PM
It's the midway point of the season, so it's time to see which teams are exceeding Vegas's expectations and which ones are not.
Before the season started, I attempted to battle Las Vegas in a cage match to see if I could predict whether the Vegas over/under predictions were going to be over or under. My goal was to improve on my disastrous 2023-2024 season performance when I wound up with 5 wins and 10 losses on my over/under predictions. My only good decision was to not bet any actual money — a decision I repeated this season.
With all the Western Conference teams at or above 41 games, the halfway point of the season, let's see how I am doing thus far for the 2024-2025 season. For each team, I will set forth the Vegas preseason prediction, a key point from my analysis, my prediction, and the projected win total now based on just doubling the team's 41 game win total. Here goes:
OKC Thunder: Vegas prediction — 56.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: The Thunder has basically everyone back from last year's excellent young team other than Josh Giddy, and they added premier defender Alex Caruso and versatile big man Isaiah Hartenstein. 57-25 sounds doable, so I will go with OVER, but just barely.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 34/68
This one sure looks like a win for me, even though I used the words "just barely" in my preseason prediction. I should have used a word such as OKC will "destroy" or "eviscerate" the Vegas 56.5 win prediction.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Vegas prediction — 52.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: While they will miss KAT's ability to stretch the floor (and the smarts of ex-Spur Kyle "Slo-Mo" Anderson), I still think the trade will be a slight upgrade for a team that won 56 games last season. OVER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 21/42
The T'wolves almost certainly will fail to meet the projected 52.5 wins. I heard a commentator say that the trade of KAT left the team without a distinctive personality, and that seems about right.
Denver Nuggets: Vegas prediction — 51.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: Since winning it all two seasons ago, the Nuggets have given up valuable role players Bruce Brown, Jeff Green and KCP, all for money reasons... Are they wasting Jokic's prime before he decides to move back to Serbia to ride his horses? UNDER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 25/50
The Nuggets are on pace to match the Vegas prediction, and have won 6 of their last 7, largely because Jokic has become even better than he was before (when he was winning MVPs). Manu Ginobili used to be the best second round pick ever, but Joker has clearly moved Manu to second place.
Dallas Mavericks: Vegas prediction — 49.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: This is a team that will score a lot and give up a lot. In the tough Western Conference, I think the weak defense will have the Mavs slightly down from last year. UNDER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 23/46
My "under" prediction looks pretty good right now, though the Mavs' offense and defense are both middle of the pack.
Phoenix Suns: Vegas prediction — 47.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: The Suns won 49 last season despite a bunch of injuries. This is a bet that Kevin Durant will stay relatively healthy. OVER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 21/42
KD has already missed 9 gams, so the bet on him to stay relatively healthy did not pan out. Without KD playing, this is a .500 team, which is why the Suns are being mentioned in a lot of trade rumors – and just completed a weird trade with Utah, giving 3 first round picks (all likely to be at the end of the draft) for one first round pick in 2031.
Memphis Grizzlies: Vegas prediction — 47.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: Of their top ten PPG scorers, only one (Jaron Jackson, Jr.) played more than 50 games [in 2023-2024]. Will a healthy season allow Memphis to win 20 more games than last year's lost season? Probably. OVER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 26/52
As shown by the Grizzlies' two recent wins against the Spurs, Memphis is once again a top team, which means that my "over" prediction seems almost like a lock.
Sacramento Kings: Vegas prediction — 46.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: The Kings already had a very good offense, which is why they won 46 games last year. Will DeRozan be worth one more win? OVER
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 21/42
Well, it turns out that DeMar DeRozan may not get the Kings to win one more game than the previous season. However, after the Kings changed coaches, they have played much better, winning 9 of their last 10. Is it real or just a "new coach halo"?
New Orleans Pelicans: Vegas prediction — 46.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: I think this island of mis-matched toys may take a step back from last year's 49 wins. UNDER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 11/22
"Island of mis-matched toys" was much too kind. "Mud puddle filled with broken glass" would have been more accurate. I think I can cash my "under" prediction.
Golden State Warriors: Vegas prediction — 44.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: One more thing — the Warriors still have Steph Curry. OVER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 21/42
At the moment, the Warriors are tied for 10th, the last spot in the Play-In Tourney. And they just lost at home to the Celtics by forty (40!!) to the Celtics. Maybe Klay Thompson was not the only problem with this once-great franchise.
Los Angeles Lakers: Vegas prediction — 43.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: Even with relatively healthy seasons from Lebron and AD, the Lakers won just 47 games last year and didn't finish in the top six in the West. Would you bet on another healthy season from the Lakers' best two players? UNDER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 22/44
Because of wildfire caused cancellations, the Lakers have played just 40 games, so they may get to 23 wins at the halfway point. But they remain basically a .500 team, winning a few, losing a few, but nothing great. And that is with both AD and Lebron playing in 37 of 40 games. If Vegas did an over/under on whether both play in over 90% of the games in the second half as they did in the first, I would take the under. And therefore I stick with my UNDER for the season.
Houston Rockets: Vegas prediction — 43.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: The Rockets surprised a lot of people last year by going .500 at 41-41. This blew away the 31.5 win Vegas prediction. UNDER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 28/56
The Rockets have surprised a lot of people this year too — probably my worst "under" prediction. Ime Udoka really can coach basketball, another successful Pop protege.
Los Angeles Clippers: Vegas prediction — 39.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: The Clippers lost Paul George and got nothing back. Spurs fans were upset when Kawhi Leonard wanted out of San Antonio six years ago, but the Spurs probably dodged a bullet. UNDER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 23/46
Another bad prediction. Despite Kawhi barely playing, the Clippers will likely blow past the Vegas prediction. Another team blessed with excellent coaching, here by Ty Lue.
San Antonio Spurs: Vegas prediction — 36.5 wins.
MY KEY COMMENT: If you read Pounding the Rock, you know about the Spurs. It would also be blasphemy to say anything but OVER. Will it get them to the Play-In Tournament as the Team No One Wants to Play? That would be cool.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS:19/38
Despite the recent slump, the Spurs have shown vast improvement and that they can compete with everyone — for instance, the Christmas Day game against the Knicks in Madison Square Garden. And they could have several more wins by closing the deal on some fourth quarter leads, including the Knicks game. I would like to see them in the hunt for a playoff spot just so the youngsters get the experience of playing in that type of game down the stretch.
Utah Jazz: Vegas prediction — 29.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: I just learned that Patty Mills is on the Jazz! But they falsely list him at 6'2". I have both the Jazz and Patty as UNDER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 10/20
The Jazz have been even worse than Vegas predicted, making my "under" prediction look good. They should play Patty Mills more.
Portland Trail Blazers: Vegas prediction — 22.5 wins
MY KEY COMMENT: I expect the Blazers to be tanking, hoping to win the Cooper Flagg lottery. UNDER.
HALFWAY/PROJECTED WINS: 13/26
The Blazers have been better than predicted, which may cost them Cooper Flagg. They have to be happy with Scoot Henderson, who seems to be living up to the pre-draft hype before a rotten rookie year.
SUMMARY
At the moment, I have about 6 wins, 6 losses and 3 TBDs (to be determined). While not great, it will be an improvement on last year. Like the Spurs, "an improvement on last year" feels like a win to me.
