The Spurs aren't the win-now team they're acting like... yet

12/26/2024 10:16 PM

Coach Mitch Johnson has trimmed the rotation and is playing Chris Paul and Victor Wembanyama heavily to make up for the roster's deficiencies.

The Spurs' Christmas Day loss to the Knicks showed the world what Victor Wembanyama can do and proved that San Antonio can compete against an elite team. It also illuminated a change in how the coaching staff is doing things that might point to a larger shift in goals.

Wembanyama played over 40 minutes, the most he's played this season. In the past two games before Christmas, he logged over 36 minutes, two marks that rank in the top five for him in playing time. Chris Paul played over 36 minutes after playing almost 35 against the 76ers on Dec. 23, his two highest marks this season. In New York, Charles Bassey and Zach Collins both stayed on the bench the entire game, a seemingly natural continuation of the dwindling minutes the backup centers have been seeing. Jeremy Sochan and Devin Vassell also eclipsed the 30-minute mark and four players logged under 18 minutes. The offense is also becoming more and more Wemby-centric; Victor made more shots than any other player even attempted. The picture is clear: Mitch Johnson has been trimming the rotation recently and relying on a select group of players while limiting the playing time of everyone else.

On the surface, the decisions are not mysterious. Wembanyama is a superstar, and Paul has had a massive positive effect when he's been on the floor, so having them out there as much as possible makes sense. Sochan and Vassell are two of the other best players on the roster. Harrison Barnes has been up and down, so seeing his playing time fluctuate is not a surprise. The same goes for Castle, Tre Jones, and Keldon Johnson. Whoever is playing well from that group will get more minutes; lately that's been Julian Champagnie. Whoever plays poorly will not be on the court as much — or at all when it comes to the backup centers. The Spurs are half a game back from the play-in and two games back from the sixth seed. If the goal is to make the postseason at all costs, then it's smart to play your best guys and whoever is hot, while limiting the minutes of your inexperienced or ineffective guys.

But is that the Spurs' goal, and if so, since when?

San Antonio came into the season with two veterans that it added on the cheap. Paul signed for seven figures and the Spurs actually got compensated for taking on Harrison Barnes. They filled out the rest of the roster with Bassey and Sandro Mamukelashvili, kept the underwhelming Malaki Branham and Blake Wesley and traded a lottery pick not for immediate help but for a future draft asset. Those are not win-now moves. Similarly, the coaching staff actually played Wemby and Chris Paul less when the team was struggling with injuries, not more, like a team desperate to stay within striking distance in the standings would have done. It's only been a few games of altered rotations and extra minutes for some and fewer for others, but it seems something has changed and it has affected how the Spurs manage their roster. The question is, what exactly?

Some theories make sense. Wembanyama playing like a top-10 player might have accelerated the timeline. If he's ready to make some noise in the postseason this year, the development of others would take a back seat. The team has also been better than anticipated. It's possible the front office was expecting the Spurs to be much further away from a playoff berth by this point in the season and the mandate has shifted from being competitive while playing young guys and showcasing potential trade pieces like Barnes and Johnson to winning at all costs. Maybe the goal from the start was to use the best players as much as possible but with Vassell and Sochan missing time and the starting lineup without them doing well, the plan had to be put on hold.

Regardless of the reasons behind the recent changes, there's a problem: the tweaks haven't really worked all that well. Take the Knicks game as an example. The Spurs lost the Sochan at center minutes by 10 points. Wembanyama played the entire fourth quarter. In the first six minutes of the frame, he had 11 points and four rebounds. In the last six minutes, he went scoreless. Chris Paul also played the entire final period and did a lot of his scoring late, but he got destroyed on defense and the boards. He was hidden on Josh Hart, who got six points and three offensive boards in the last six minutes. Wembanyama also got outhustled on the offensive glass, losing a crucial battle after a free throw with a minute to go. Now, if Mikal Bridges hadn't turned into prime Kevin Duran, we would be talking about a great win and there would be much less scrutiny. But the issue would have still been there.

To put it in the simplest terms, the problem is the Spurs don't have enough reliable talent right now if the goal is actually to win, and simply upping the minutes of their consistent players will not do. Paul has too many miles on his body, Wembanyama tends to get gassed when he doesn't get breaks and, as hard as he tries, Sochan can't run around the court chasing the opponents' best perimeter scorer and then battle inside with centers. A top-heavy rotation works for short stretches, not the NBA regular season. Even if it does work — and the Tom Thibodeau Knicks are a good example of it — the Spurs have maintained for years that the risk of injury increases and playing too much shortens careers.

So what's the solution? Trades. If the Spurs are actually prioritizing winning above giving fringe players a chance to develop and prove themselves, then half the roster doesn't fit. In that scenario, San Antonio would need a reliable backup center, a veteran floor general who can spare Chris Paul and a consistent bench scorer. The assets to get them are there, but using them would be risky, as accelerating the timeline without a second star in place could backfire if Vassell and Sochan don't make a leap and the franchise struggles to secure a replacement for Paul. Still, making moves seems to be the only way to be a win-now team without extending the minutes of players who should probably be on the floor less, both to be at their best and to avoid injuries.

It's only been a few games since the most recent changes to the rotation. Maybe Coach Johnson is just trying things out and will go back to playing Paul for around 30 minutes, using a backup center to keep Wemby's playing time from getting into the high 30s, and using the second unit more. It's possible this is all temporary.

If instead the new way of doing things is here to stay, the front office has big decisions to make before the trade deadline.